Pachuca VS Atletico San Luis

Pachuca host Atletico de San Luis for this Liga MX round 16 clash at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo Sunday morning Beijing time. My fans and I have done well betting on this league in the past and I have spotted yet another interesting betting opportunity here! There, of course, is no doubt about the fact that the hosts are the better team here. Indeed, they have an edge in all areas of the game. The biggest edge over the hosts they have in offense quality. They have netted the ball 29 times in this league so far this season. However, their number of expected goals(xG) is lower - 26.12. The visitors, on the other hand, mainly rely on solid, well-structured defense. Even the defenders actively take part in defending and the team has a great morale. I expect them to play very defensive, perhaps even cautious football against a strong opponent. However, this tactic means that their offensive football is pretty limited.. I expect them to mostly rely on counter attacks, corners, free kicks – or perhaps a possible penalty here to score goals. I trust their good coach to organize the defense in an effective way. I see this match as more low-scoring than the bookies do. The probability for under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 57%. This suits the recommended bet - +1.5 goals handicap option on the visitors well! The chance of winning is 72%. The probability for Atletido San Luis to take at least a draw is 46%. They would probably be happy with a draw..

The visitors have allowed just 19 goals so far – this is less than a very big club by Mexican standards – Club America who are currently in second place with 30 points. They have, however, scored just 15 goals. The hosts currently occupy the 6th place with 25 to their account. This is a slight disappointment. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is 22.12. I have lowered their power rating from the sophisticated, in-depth preseason analysis. The main problem with the hosts has been the leaky, often incredibly poorly organized defense! Their defenserds make too many silly mistakes. They have allowed a whopping 23 goals - this is more than Necaxa, currently in 16th place! The hosts have allowed seven goals in their most recent three games., They will, of course, improve in this area but I believe this will take time.. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is ”only” 19.89. In this area of the game they only have a marginal edge over the visitors at the moment. Pachuca do not have the best fans but of course the home advantage is there and I expect the hosts to control the events on the pitch for most of the 90 minutes in front of their demanding fans. The visitors have been in better form than Pachuca lately winning two of their most recent three games. In their most recent match they did not fully convince me offensively but managed to beat Juarez 2-0 at home thanks to good defending - and even a hint of luck. Before this, however, they were unlucky to lose to U.N.A.M Pumas away from home as very clear underdogs – priced around 4.20 to win. Even so, they had 60% ball possession and recorded more scoring attempts (17-10), shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 72-26. Furthermore, they recorded more in xG - 1.92-1.43. The hosts, on the other hand, lost to a pretty limited team, Atlas, 1-4 away from home in their most recent match after a very disappointing performance as solid favorites on the betting market. The match was more balanced than the final score suggests though.