KTP Kotka VS IFK Mariehamn

KTP host IFK Mariehamn for this Finnish Veikkausliiga round 3 clash at Arto Tolsa Areena in the small city of Kotka late Saturday evening Beijing time. This is my home country's first tier but, in all honesty, the level by European standards is relatively modest. However, Veikkausliiga has been improving as a whole in the recent 5 or so years.. However, my goal is to make a long-term profit for my fans and myself and for this purpose Veikkausliiga will most probably be one of the best - especially in the summer when the major European leagues are on a summer break and there are less interesting betting opportunities. HJK Helsinki are the best team in this league – by a clear margin at the moment but behind them the teams are expected to be more balanced than last season. This will surely make betting very interesting.. The bookies clearly do not put as much resources on this league as on for example the English Premier League - or even the Swedish Allsvenskan.. Quite surprisingly, HJK even made it to the UEFA Europa League group stage last season where they faced Bulgarian Ludogorets, Italian AS Roma and Spanish Real Betis – these opponents were too good for HJK to handle though. The teams in the Veikkausliiga have changed quite a lot for this season and even the very best Finnish professional football bettors and famous and respected football journalists disagree in terms of power ratings quite significantly at the start of the season.. The bookmakers often over-react to the results of the first 1-10 rounds of Veikkausliiga - this should offer us very promising betting opportunities. In fact, we have one two today – the other one is SJK vs Lahti! Let’s take a closer look at this probably balanced game..

Most teams have a somewhat competitive starting eleven plus a few good substitutes but on teams missing even one, not to mention more players can have a big effect! This is something the betting market often fails to fully understand – or has failed - at least in previous seasons. However, in case of information/news on key players being injured or out due to another reason surfaces only a few hours before the match starts odds can move quite a lot. I recommend my fans to avoid betting with abnormally large stakes just because the odds are much higher than the one I have quoted on my preview There usually is, after all, a reason for significant odds movements.. Today's match is expected to be a balanced battle between two lowly teams. Even so, the visitors have much more experience on Veikkausliiga and have an edge in all areas of the game and are narrow favorites here. The home advantage in Veikkuasliiga is smaller than in most European league but KTP do have pretty good home crowd. However, they may feel the pressure to be (too) aggressive in front of the home fans. Indeed, I have KTP in last place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. Mariehamn, on the other hand, are in the 10th place in this ranking in the league with a total of 12 clubs. KTP were promoted to this level for this season and do not seem to be quite ready to succeed. However, they might well improve later on.. They did play in Veikkausliiga in 2021 but were horrible and relegated. This time they will surely be better – mainly thanks to their young but very smart coach – especially tactically – Jussi Leppälahti. However, many players do not have the skills or speed to really do well at this level..

KTP's defense is extremely vulnerable – despite -- with a lot of luck - being able to keep a clean sheet in the last round against KuPS. are lightyears away from the level of last season when they pushed HJK for the championship - losing by just a one point margin. Now they are a mess – losing 2/3 games so taking a point from them is not a great achievement.. It was a 0-0 draw in Kotka in the last week despite the bookies offering KuPS odds of only around 2.00 to win. KuPS completely dominated the first half but in the second half Kotka, too, had some decent chances to score.. For some reason KuPS quit pressing KTP in the second half and failed to put too much pressure on the hosts' defenders - or create a lot of goal expectancy.. I believe it was a bad tactical decision by Kups coach, Pasi Tuutti who was, in fact, sacked today. Kotka themselves did not really improve that much in the second half.. In the first round they faced a mediocre team, AC Oulu, also at home and were beaten 0-2. It was not a bad performance but KTP's defensive problems, especially in terms of structure and the defenders' lack of speed were easy for everyone to see.. Yes, they have the immensely talented - by Veikkausliiga standards – American Jack de Vries but he seems to be lazy at defending and his teammates do not seem to always be able to read his movements and passes on the pitch.. A lot has been written about him in the Finnish football media but I think he is overvalued and the ”fuss” around him seems to affect KTP's odds.. The right winger/ left winger/ attacking Midfield – what his position actually is at KTP seems to be unclear at the momen - is a loan from Venezia, Serie B and surely worth following..

Mariehamn have traditionally heavily relied on solid, well-structured defense but they, too, seem to be vulnerable in this area of the game at the moment.. They can be very deadly on counter attacks and transitions as Leppälahti highlighted in a recent pregame interview. Furthermore, if they let Mariehamn to control the ball they probably cannot handle the pressure - and will have a too big distance to run to in an attempt to score the first goal of the season.. The goal expectancy here is higher than the bookies estimate. The probability for over 2.5 goals to be scored is 54%. The 2-3 loss in Mariehamn in the opening round was an unlucky one – I was pretty happy with Mariehamn's performance. They did have 49% ball possession but the hosts are, indeed, at their best on counter attack and allowed Lahti to keep the ball for long periods of time. Even so, on the pitch IFK Mariehamn were the better team. They created 15 scoring attempts – Lahti had eight. Furthermore, the hosts recorded more shots on goal - 6-3 as well as more attacks. In the opening round they faced and talented Ilves at home and it was a justified 1-1 draw. Ilves were solid favorites in this game on the betting market - priced around 2.25 to win.

IFK Mariehamn +0.5 goals is the most solid bet here to increase the winning streak!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周六晚，KTP主场东道主IFK Mariehamn将在小城市科特卡的Arto Tolsa arena与芬兰队进行第三轮比赛。这是我的祖国的第一梯队，但说实话，按照欧洲的标准，这一水平相对较低。然而，在最近的5年左右的时间里，维克考斯利加整体上一直在进步。然而，我的目标是为我的球迷和我自己创造长期的利益，为此，维考斯利加很可能会成为最好的联赛之一——尤其是在欧洲主要联赛都处于暑假期间，没有什么有趣的投注机会。赫尔辛基HJK是这个联赛中最好的球队——目前有明显的优势，但在他们之后，球队预计会比上赛季更加平衡。这肯定会使赌博变得非常有趣。很明显，博彩公司在这个联赛上投入的资源不像在英超那样多，甚至不像在瑞典的阿尔斯旺斯坎。令人惊讶的是，上个赛季，HJK甚至进入了欧联杯小组赛，面对的是保加利亚的卢多戈雷茨、意大利的罗马和西班牙的皇家贝蒂斯——这些对手对HJK来说太强大了。本赛季，维考斯利加的球队发生了很大的变化，即使是最优秀的芬兰职业足球投注者和著名的受人尊敬的足球记者，在赛季开始时也对球队的实力评级产生了很大的分歧。博彩公司经常对前1-10轮的比赛结果反应过度，这应该给我们提供非常有希望的投注机会。事实上，我们今天有一场比赛，另一场是SJK vs Lahti!让我们仔细看看这款平衡的游戏。

大多数球队都有一些有竞争力的首发11人加上一些优秀的替补，但即使是缺少一个人的球队，更不用说更多的球员也会产生很大的影响!这是博彩市场经常无法完全理解的——或者已经失败了——至少在前几个赛季是这样。然而，如果关键球员受伤或因其他原因缺阵的消息在比赛开始前几个小时才出现，赔率就会发生很大的变化。我建议我的粉丝们不要因为赔率比我在预演中引用的要高得多而下过大的赌注。毕竟，赔率的大幅变动通常是有原因的。今天的比赛预计将是两支实力较弱的球队之间的一场势均力敌的较量。即便如此，客队在维库斯利加的经验要丰富得多，在比赛的各个方面都有优势，在这里也有一定的优势。维库斯里甲的主场优势比大多数欧洲联赛都要小，但KTP的主场观众确实很好。然而，他们可能会在主场球迷面前感到压力太大。事实上，我把KTP排在了我的力量排名的最后，这反映了球队的纯粹等级。另一方面，玛丽汉姆共有12家俱乐部，排在联赛第10位。KTP本赛季被提升到这个级别，但似乎还没有做好成功的准备。不过，他们以后可能会有所改善。他们确实在2021年参加过维克考斯利加联赛，但表现很糟糕，降级了。这一次他们肯定会做得更好——主要是感谢他们年轻但非常聪明的教练——尤其是在战术上——尤西Leppälahti。然而，许多球员并没有足够的技巧和速度在这个级别上打得很好。

KTP的防守非常脆弱，尽管他们运气不错，在上一轮对阵up的比赛中保持了零封。与上个赛季相比，他们已经有了光年的距离，当时他们在争夺冠军的过程中只以一分之差输掉了比赛。现在他们一团糟，输掉了2/3场比赛，所以从他们身上拿走一分并不是什么了不起的成就。尽管博彩公司开出的赔率只有2.00左右，但上周在科特卡的比赛还是以0比0打平。尤普斯完全控制了上半场，但在下半场科特卡也有一些不错的得分机会。由于某些原因，up在下半场放弃了对KTP的压迫，未能给东道主的后卫施加太大的压力，也没有创造太多的进球期望。我认为这是卡普斯教练帕西·图蒂的一个糟糕的战术决定，事实上，他今天被解雇了。科特卡自己在下半场并没有真正提高多少。在第一轮比赛中，他们面对的是同样在主场的平庸球队AC奥卢，并以0-2被击败。这并不是一场糟糕的比赛，但是KTP的防守问题，特别是在结构和防守球员缺乏速度方面，每个人都很容易看到。是的，他们有非常有天赋的美国人杰克·德弗里斯，但他似乎在防守上很懒，他的队友似乎并不总是能读懂他在球场上的动作和传球。芬兰足球媒体已经写了很多关于他的文章，但我认为他被高估了，围绕他的“大惊小怪”似乎影响了KTP的赔率。右边锋/左边锋/攻击型中场——他在KTP的实际位置目前似乎还不清楚——是从意乙的威尼斯租借过来的，当然值得关注。

玛丽汉姆传统上非常依赖于稳固的、结构良好的防守，但他们现在在这个领域似乎也很脆弱。他们在反击和转换时非常致命，Leppälahti在最近的赛前采访中强调了这一点。此外，如果他们让玛丽汉姆控制球，他们可能无法应对压力，并且在试图打进本赛季的第一个进球时，他们会有太大的距离。这里的预期进球比博彩公司估计的要高。进球超过2.5个的概率是54%。第一轮2-3输给玛丽汉姆是一场不幸的比赛，我对玛丽汉姆的表现很满意。他们确实有49%的控球率，但主队确实在反击中发挥了最佳状态，让拉赫蒂长时间控球。即便如此，在球场上，IFK玛丽汉还是一支更好的球队。他们创造了15次得分机会，拉赫蒂有8次。此外，主队的射门次数更多——6比3，进攻次数也更多。在首场比赛中，他们在主场面对才华横溢的伊尔维斯，结果是1-1平。在这场比赛中，伊尔维斯在博彩市场上是最受欢迎的，赢的概率在2.25左右。

如果玛丽汉姆+0.5球是最可靠的赌注在这里增加连胜!