Crystal Palace VS Everton

Crystal Palace host Everton for this English Premier League round 32 battle late Saturday evening Beijing time. This is the best league in the world but I expect a pretty ”ugly”, physical battle here. Everton just keep on disappointing. They are a pretty ”sad” team and seem to be in disarray under Sean Dyche, a manager I do not value very highly. He is not clever tactically and is not a good leader either. Furthermore, according to my sources the team spirit at Everton is not great.. They were close to relegation last season and this time this traditional club might, indeed, be relegated to Championship. What a disgrace that would be. On paper Everton should be much better but the problems persist.. I have Everton in the 17th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. Crystal Palace, on the other hand, occupy the 13th place in this rating. Everton's offense is extremely lame and they have netted the ball just 24 times in this league so far this season. This is the lowest number in the Premier League! Even the rock-bottom team, Southampton, have scored 27 goals. Everton will probably try to defend hard here and home for a lucky goal through counter attacks, corners or free kicks.. They cannot really create much expected threat or goal expectancy through ball possession and organised attacking.. They have 27 points to their account but I want to mention that their number of expected points (xPTS) is higher 29.12. Indeed, it is, taking the xPTS into account, a bit surprising that they are overvalued here – the main reason is probably that fact that Everton are a traditional team who were in the top-10 a few years ago and do have some talent in the team.. The bookies seem to give too much emphasis to their potential.

Yes, Everton have a slight edge in motivation as they desperately need points.. Teams that place 18-20th are relegated and Nottingham, 18th place, also have 27 points in the pocket, Leicester have 25. Everton's defense has been leaky throughout the season and they have allowed 46 goals. Furthermore, they have conceded five goals in their most recent two matches.. I was very disappointed in them in their most recent game against Fulham at home as solid favorites, priced around 2.20 to win by the bookies. Today they are very clear underdogs and the hosts have a 56% chance of sending Everton back to Liverpool empty-handed. Odds of around 2.10-2.15 are widely available at the time of writing this and we must take them! Everton played well late into the first half but were abysmal in the second half. Fulham, without their best player, striker Mitrovic, scored twice against the unorganized and even a bit lazy Everton to win 3-1. Fulham recorded 2.01 in expected goals (xG) – Everton managed just 1.31. Fulham did not even really have anything to play for in this game. Before this the ManU easily beat them and could have scored four or even five goals after recording 29 scoring attempts at Old Trafford! The hosts recorded a whopping 4.02 in expected goals! Everton's number was 1.03.

Crystal Palace, on the other hand, have been great under the legendary manager Roy Hodgson, 75. He has been able to create a positive, even relaxed atmosphere within the team and they have won three games in a row! Crystal Palace are high in confidence and might even take a clear win here if they score a quick goal. They have netted the ball an impressive eight times in their most recent three games! They attack well as a team and the strikers have been surprisingly creative lately. They are in 12th place with 36 points and still need a few points to secure their place in the league for next season.. A win here would most probably be enough.. Late into the season I often find value with a team with something to play for at home but with a positive vibe – not the anxious - sometimes even desperate atmosphere the worst teams in any league usually have. Let's also remember that Everton are a terrible team away from home and have won just one game on the road. They will be missing Coleman, Doucoure and Townsend – Onana and Vinagre are questionable. The hosts are without Clyne, Guaita and Zaha, Ferguson is questionable. They beat Southampton away from home in their most recent game 2-0 after a fine defensive performance but only recorded 1.02 in xG though. . Before this they crushed the motivated Leeds 5-1 away from home after creating 3.56 in xG. What a fine performance!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周六晚，水晶宫主场迎战埃弗顿，进行英超第32轮的比赛。这是世界上最好的联赛，但我预计这里会有一场非常“丑陋”的身体对抗。埃弗顿一直让人失望。他们是一支非常“悲伤”的球队，在肖恩·戴奇(Sean Dyche)的领导下，他们似乎处于混乱之中，我不太看重戴奇。他在战术上不聪明，也不是一个好的领导者。此外，根据我的消息来源，埃弗顿的团队精神不是很好……上个赛季他们差一点就降级了，而这一次，这个传统俱乐部可能真的会降级到英冠。那将是多么耻辱啊。理论上埃弗顿应该会好得多，但问题依然存在。我把埃弗顿排在第17位，这反映了球队的纯粹等级。另一方面，水晶宫在该排名中排名第13位。埃弗顿的进攻非常差劲，本赛季到目前为止，他们在联赛中只有24次进球。这是英超联赛中最低的数字!就连排名垫底的南安普顿队也进了27个球。埃弗顿可能会努力防守，通过反击、角球或任意球获得一个幸运的进球。他们无法真正通过控球和有组织的进攻创造出多少预期的威胁或进球。他们的账户上有27点，但我想提一下，他们的预期点数(xPTS)更高，为29.12。事实上，考虑到xPTS，他们在这里被高估有点令人惊讶——主要原因可能是埃弗顿是一支传统的球队，几年前就进入了前10名，而且球队中确实有一些天赋。博彩公司似乎过于强调他们的潜力。

是的，埃弗顿在动力上有一点优势，因为他们迫切需要积分。排在第18-20位的球队将被降级，排在第18位的诺丁汉也有27分，莱斯特有25分。埃弗顿的防守整个赛季都漏洞百出，他们丢了46个球。此外，他们在最近两场比赛中丢了5个球。我对他们最近主场对阵富勒姆的比赛感到非常失望，因为他们是最受欢迎的球队，博彩公司的胜率在2.20左右。今天他们明显处于劣势，东道主有56%的机会将埃弗顿空手而归。在写这篇文章的时候，大约2.10-2.15的赔率是广泛可用的，我们必须抓住它们!埃弗顿在上半场后半段踢得很好，但下半场踢得一塌糊涂。富勒姆失去了他们最好的球员，前锋米特罗维奇，在面对没有组织甚至有点懒散的埃弗顿时梅开二度，以3-1取胜。富勒姆的预期进球数为2.01，埃弗顿仅为1.31。富勒姆在这场比赛中甚至没有什么可踢的。在此之前，曼联轻松击败了他们，在老特拉福德有29次进球的记录，他们本可以进4个甚至5个球!东道主的预期进球数高达4.02 !埃弗顿的数字是1.03。

另一方面，水晶宫在75岁的传奇主帅罗伊·霍奇森的带领下表现出色。他能够在球队内部创造一种积极，甚至轻松的氛围，他们已经连续赢得了三场比赛!水晶宫信心十足，如果他们能快速进个球，他们甚至可能在这里大胜。在最近的三场比赛中，他们有令人印象深刻的八次进球!他们作为一个团队进攻得很好，前锋们最近的创造力令人惊讶。他们以36分排在第12位，他们还需要几分来确保下赛季在联赛中的位置。在这里赢一场就足够了。在赛季后期，我经常发现一支在主场有目标但气氛积极的球队是有价值的，而不是焦虑，有时甚至是绝望的气氛，这是任何联盟中最差的球队通常都有的。让我们记住埃弗顿是一支糟糕的客场球队，他们只在客场赢过一场比赛。他们将会失去科尔曼、杜库尔和汤森——奥纳纳和维纳格雷也不确定。东道主失去了克莱因、瓜伊塔和扎哈，弗格森也令人怀疑。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场2-0击败了南安普顿，他们的防守表现很好，但在xG比赛中只取得了1.02的成绩。在此之前，他们在客场创造了3.56的进球，以5-1击败了积极进取的利兹。多么精彩的表演啊!