Heerenveen VS Emmen

Heerenveen welcome Emmen for this Dutch Eredivisie round 30 clash at Abe Lenstra Stadion early Sunday morning Beijing time. This league is not among the top-4 leagues on the planet but still offers pretty high-level football for fans to watch - and for my fans and me to bet on! Indeed, most teams play beautiful, aggressive and offensive football with a lot of short passes. Heerenveen currently occupy the 9th place in this league with a total of 18 clubs. They have 38 points to their account. They have netted the ball just 34 times in this league so far and have allowed just 42 goals. I must admit that I would have expected a little more from them offensively. However, their number of expected goals is 37.87. Furthermore, they have been a little unlucky in terms of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 39.54. They currently occupy the 9th place in the standings but I have them in the 8th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. The teams who finish 5-8th earn a place in the UEFA Conference League cup qualification for next season. For Heerenveen, who are not one the biggest clubs in the Netherlands in terms of historical success or financial resources, this would be a good achievement. I expect them to be very motivated here in front of loud and loyal fans. The home advantage in Eredivisie is substantial on average and this is the case here as well. Indeed, Emmen have lost 11/14 of the away games in this league so far this season. Moreover, their score difference on the road is very bad – 11:32.

The biggest, often pretty smart bookies that have the biggest betting limits offer the hosts odds of around 1.70-1.75 to take all three points here and this is too high – at least at the time of writing this preview early Saturday morning Beijing time. I would not, however, be at all surprised to see the hosts odds drop further as clever money is expected to pile up on the hosts.. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based in-depth analysis they have a 64% chance of winning. We have done very well betting on this league and for the fans who want to go for bigger odds the -1.5 handicap option is a good option! Heerenveen lost to Sparta Rotterdam, a dangerous team currently in 5th place with 52 points, away from home as clear underdogs on the betting market in their most recent game. The 4-0 final score is very misleading and probably affects the odds too much here! The visitors had 51% ball possession and even recorded more shots on goal, scoring attempts, total passes and completed passes. Before this they beat Volendam 2-1 at home and could easily have taken a more clear victory. They had 59% ball possession and recorded many more scoring attempts (15-9), shots on goal (9-5), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. They created 2.98 in expected goals – the visitors' number was just 0.99. Volendam are in the 14th place in the league table - Emmen, on the other hand, fight against relegation in 16th place with just 25 points in their pocket. This is hugely motivating but I think this match is a good example of a late season game where the motivation factor I have written many times before is given too much emphasis! Emmen have 25 points to their account but would have deserved 30.23 in terms of expected points (xPTS) so the over-valuation here is a little surprising. Yes, they have a pretty good coach and - according to my sources – the team spirit is fine as well but even this will probably not be enough..

I expect Emmen to be very defensive here against a much better opponent. They will surely rely on counter-attacks, corners or perhaps a possible penalty kick. Basically this is all they are capable of at the moment.. They played this way against Ajax in the most recent game and the result for them was very bad – a 1-3 loss. Despite the problems with offensive creativity - as well as lack of pace - I believe Heerenveen will find a way to break Emmen's defense here through short passes. Ajax did this with ease but of course they are a better team than Heerenveen.. They did not give Emmen a true chance to take points with 68% ball possession and recording a whopping 26 scoring attempts. Emmen's defense, which is not hopelessly bad as such, looked somewhat unorganized and some of their defenders seemed to be pretty tired towards the end of the game. It has been a difficult - and surely a tiring season for a team that were promoted to this league for this season. Before the Ajax game they faced Nijmegen at home and no goals were – quite amazingly scored! Indeed, the visitors who were only marginal favorites according to the bookies were the better team with 67% ball possession, 22 scoring attempts and creating 2.43 in xG – Emmen's number was 1.34. Lastly I want to mention that in terms of players total market value according to a well-respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the hosts have a very big edge. They really should be better than Emmen in all areas of the game here!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周日凌晨，埃门将在阿伯伦斯特拉球场迎来荷甲联赛第30轮的比赛。这个联赛不是世界上排名前四的联赛之一，但仍然为球迷们提供了相当高水平的足球比赛——也为我和我的球迷们提供了赌注!的确，大多数球队踢的都是漂亮、有侵略性和进攻性的足球，有很多短传。目前，芬兰共有18家俱乐部，排名联赛第9位。他们的账户上有38分。到目前为止，他们在联赛中只进球34次，只丢了42个球。我必须承认，我本来对他们的进攻有更高的期望。然而，他们的预期进球数为37.87个。此外，他们在预期失球(xGA)方面有点不走运，为39.54。他们目前在积分榜上排名第9，但我把他们排在我的力量排名第8位，这反映了球队的纯粹等级。5-8名的球队将获得下赛季欧洲联盟联赛杯的资格。对于赫伦芬来说，无论从历史成就还是财政资源来看，他们都不是荷兰最大的俱乐部之一，这将是一个很好的成就。我希望他们在忠实的球迷面前充满动力。平均来说，在荷甲的主场优势是巨大的，在这里也是如此。事实上，本赛季到目前为止，埃门在联赛中输掉了11/14的客场比赛。此外，他们在客场的比分差距非常大——11:32。

最大的，通常是非常聪明的博彩公司，他们有最大的投注限额，为东道主提供1.70-1.75的赔率来获得所有这三个点，这太高了——至少在北京时间周六早上写这篇预告的时候。然而，如果看到主办国获胜的几率进一步下降，我一点也不会感到惊讶，因为人们预计聪明的钱会涌向主办国。根据我复杂的，基于数据的深度分析他们有64%的机会获胜。我们在这个联赛中做得很好，对于那些想要获得更大赔率的球迷来说，-1.5的障碍选项是一个很好的选择!海伦芬甚至输给了鹿特丹斯巴达，这是一支危险的球队，目前以52分排名第五，在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场显然处于劣势。4比0的最终比分很容易误导人，可能对赔率影响太大了!客队有51%的控球率，甚至有更多的射门次数、进球次数、总传球次数和完成传球次数。在此之前，他们在主场2-1击败了Volendam，本可以轻松取得更明显的胜利。他们有59%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数(15-9)，射门次数(9-5)，总传球次数，完成传球次数，进攻次数和危险进攻次数。他们创造了2.98个预期进球，而客队只有0.99个。沃伦丹目前在积分榜上排名第14位，而另一方面，埃门仅以25分的积分排名第16位，为保级而战。这是一个巨大的激励，但我认为这场比赛是一个很好的例子，在赛季末的比赛中，我之前写过很多次的激励因素被过分强调了!埃门目前有25分，但以预期积分(xPTS)计算，他们本应得到30.23分，因此这里的高估有点令人惊讶。是的，他们有一个很好的教练，根据我的消息来源，他们的团队精神也很好，但即使这样可能还不够。

我希望埃门在面对一个强得多的对手时，能很好地防守。他们肯定会依靠反击、角球或者可能的点球。基本上这是他们目前所能做的。他们在最近一场对阵阿贾克斯的比赛中就是这样踢的，结果非常糟糕——1-3输球。尽管在进攻创造力和速度上存在问题，但我相信海伦芬会通过短传突破埃门的防守。阿贾克斯很轻松地做到了这一点，但他们当然是一支比海伦芬更好的球队。他们没有给埃门一个真正的得分机会，他控球率为68%，得分次数高达26次。埃门的防守并不是那么糟糕，但看起来有些杂乱无章，他们的一些后卫在比赛结束前似乎相当疲惫。对于一支本赛季升入这个联赛的球队来说，这是一个艰难的赛季，当然也是一个累人的赛季。在与阿贾克斯的比赛之前，他们在主场面对奈梅亨，没有进球——相当惊人的进球!事实上，根据博彩公司的数据，客队的控球率为67%，得分次数为22次，全场创造了2.43个进球，而埃门的数字为1.34个。最后我想提一下，根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，从球员的总市值来看，东道主有很大的优势。他们在比赛的各个方面都应该比埃门强!