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2023-04-21

Ricards

外籍分析师

NBA

04/22 07:00

已完赛

老鹰
1:0
凯尔特人
解读理由:

The NBA playoffs are continuing with 3 games on Friday night. The 1st match is going to be between Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics. After the 1st two games, the Celtics are leading 2-0. None of the games in Boston were close. In the opening game of the series, Boston had already 10 point lead after 12 minutes and was up by as many as 32 points. While the Hawks were able to cut down the lead to 12 points, the Celtics did the job and won the game. The following game was a little bit closer. Atlanta was leading until the end of the 1st quarter, but the Celtics took care of the game in the next 3 quarters, had a 22-point lead, and won the game easily. In this game, I'm predicting that the Celtics will cover the handicap.

One of the reasons why Atlanta struggles are Trae Young. He's the leader of the team but he can't do a thing in this series. After the 1st two games, he averages 20 points (26 in the regular season), 7 assists (9), shoots 35% from the field (43%), makes 23% from three (33%) and 69% from free throw line (89%). As we can see, during the regular season he was much better. Young struggles to play against big guards, and Boston puts on him either Derrick White or Marcus Smart. When those two, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have guarded Young, he hasn't shot better than 29% from the field.

It's a small sample size but let's compare the team's advanced stats. Boston has the 8th-best offense (111.6), the best defense (100.5) and the 3rd-best net rating (11.1) while Atlanta has the worst offense (100.5), the 9th-best defense (111.6) and the 3rd-worst net rating (-11.1). During the regular season, Boston had the 2nd-best net rating while Atlanta had only the 19th-best.

I wouldn't be surprised if the series will end after 4 games. The Celtics have not only dominated this series but also previous matchups. The Boston team has won the last 7 matchups and covered the spread in all games. During the regular season, Atlanta was one of the worst teams as they covered the spread in just 44% of the games while the Celtics on the road covered 54% of the games.


周五晚上,NBA 季后赛将继续进行 3 场比赛。第一场比赛将在亚特兰大老鹰队和波士顿凯尔特人队之间进行。前两场战罢,凯尔特人2-0领先。波士顿的比赛没有一场比分接近。系列赛首战,波士顿开场12分钟就已经领先10分,最多领先32分。虽然老鹰队能够将领先优势缩小到 12 分,但凯尔特人队完成了任务并赢得了比赛。接下来的比赛更接近了一点。亚特兰大一直领先到第一节结束,但凯尔特人在接下来的3节比赛中照顾好比赛,领先22分,轻松拿下比赛。在这场比赛中,我预测凯尔特人将赢下让分盘。

亚特兰大挣扎的原因之一是特雷杨。他是球队的领袖,但他在这个系列赛中无能为力。在前两场比赛之后,他场均得到 20 分(常规赛 26 分)、7 次助攻(9 次),投篮命中率 35%(43%),三分球命中率 23%(33%) 和 69% 来自罚球线 (89%)。正如我们所看到的,在常规赛期间他的表现要好得多。杨在对抗大个子后卫时表现不佳,波士顿让他选择德里克-怀特或马库斯-斯马特。当 Jayson Tatum 和 Jaylen Brown 这两个人防守 Young 时,他的投篮命中率从未超过 29%。

这是一个小样本,但让我们比较一下球队的高级统计数据。波士顿的进攻排名第 8(111.6),防守排名第 100.5,净效率排名第 3(11.1),而亚特兰大的进攻排名最差(100.5),防守排名第 9(111.6),净排名排名第 3净评级 (-11.1)。在常规赛期间,波士顿队的净得分排名第二,而亚特兰大队仅排名第 19。

如果系列赛在 4 场比赛后结束,我不会感到惊讶。凯尔特人不仅统治了这个系列赛,而且统治了之前的比赛。波士顿队在过去的 7 场比赛中都取得了胜利,并且在所有比赛中都赢下了让分。在常规赛期间,亚特兰大是最差的球队之一,因为他们只赢得了44% 的让分,而客场的凯尔特人是 54%。

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