Carlisle vs Stockport

Carlisle and Stockport lock horns in this English League Two round 43 clash at Brunton Park early Wednesday morning Beijing time. The season is slowly coming to an end – next month to be precise. The stakes are high and the motivation factor has now become one of the key things in profitable betting!Here the stakes are extremely high and both teams have huge motivation. Both clubs have a genuine chance of making it to the top-3 and being directly promoted to League One! On the other hand, both clubs could also finish outside top-7 and miss a chance to play in the Promotion Play Offs Semi-finals! Indeed, the top-10, after Leyton Orient, is very balanced.. Both teams having big motivation will not be the case in a very big number of games in European soccer leagues this spring and I recommend my fans to read carefully my analyses on motivation in April and in May! Even so, there are games where the motivation factor is given way too much emphasis and the odds are consequently affected too much and the motivated team has become too hot on the betting market..

This is the fourth-highest level of English football and is undoubtedly the best 4th tier in the planet! Super-skilled individuals are rare and most teams play pretty straight-forward, usually quite physical football. Players are expected to fight for every ball and and especially at home, giving up is not acceptable at all– even when the situation looks more or less hopeless.. My fans and I have done very well betting in this league and I have spotted yet another very lucrative betting opportunity! The biggest, often rather sharp bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers see the visitors as the favorites here. I must disagree with them! Based on my strongly data-based, sophisticated in-depth analysis the hosts are slightly the more probable teams to take all three points! They have been impressive at home in this league so far this season. They have loud and demanding fans who boost them massively! This match is expected to be a much more defensive and careful one than a typical League Two game.. However, by now the bookies and bettors have realized this and the under 2.5 total goals have come down from the starting odds to a more or less correct level. However, the odds on the draw are slightly too high – at the moment at least. The probability for this result is 33.5%. A point would probably be a decent achievement for both teams.

Carlisle have lost just three matches at Brunton Park this season and their score difference in these 21 games is convincing – 30:16. It seems the bookies are not giving enough emphasis to this factor. The atmosphere at the stadium is going to be phenomenal as promotion to the third tier would mean a lot to the fans! Carlisle have struggled with scoring recently and despite the fact that they have scored more goals than the visitors in League Two - 60 – so far I see Stockport as slightly stronger in this area of the game at the moment. In terms of defensive quality there is hardly anything separating the two teams. With today's expected lineups I rate the visitors marginally the better team but the home advantage makes Carlisle the favorites! Both teams have been in good form lately. The hosts have lost two – and Stockport just one of their most recent 10 games. Furthermore, both have 71 points to their account – Stockport are in 4th place and Carlisle in 5th. Carlisle have now played two 0-0 draws in a row. In both of these matches both teams have created less than 1.00 in expected goals (xG). In their most recent game they faced a strong team, Northampton, currently in 2nd place, at home and were slightly the better team with 53% ball possession and recorded more shots on goal (7-3), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Their xG was 0.87 and the visitors generated 0.65. Before this they faced Walsall at home and were – again - better on the pitch with 55 % ball possession. Carlisle recorded more shots on goal (3-2), goal attempts (12-7), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Their xG was 0.68 the hosts created just 0.33. Stockport, on the other hand, faced Gillingham, currently in 18th place and nothing to play for, away from home and very disappointing as very clear favorites according to the bookies – priced around 2.00 to win. They were only modestly the better team despite the 62% ball possession. Indeed, both teams recorded four shots on target. Stockports's xG was 0.81 – the hosts generated 0.72.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周三凌晨，卡莱尔和斯托克波特将在布伦顿公园球场进行英乙第43轮的交锋。这个季节正在慢慢接近尾声——准确地说，下个月。赌注很高，动机因素现在已成为有利可图的投注的关键因素之一!这里的赌注非常高，两支球队都有巨大的动力。两家俱乐部都有机会进入前三，直接升入英甲!另一方面，这两家俱乐部也可能在前7名之外，错过晋级附加赛半决赛的机会!的确，排在莱顿东方之后的前10名非常平衡。在今年春天的欧洲足球联赛中，两支球队都不会有很大的动力，我建议我的球迷仔细阅读我在四月和五月对动力的分析!即便如此，也有一些游戏过于强调动机因素，结果导致赔率受到太大影响，并且有动机的团队在博彩市场上变得太热门。

这是英格兰足球的第四高水平，毫无疑问是这个星球上最好的第四梯队!技术高超的球员很少，大多数球队踢的都很直接，通常都是身体对抗的足球。球员们应该为每一个球而战，尤其是在主场，放弃是完全不可接受的——即使情况看起来或多或少没有希望。我和我的球迷在这个联赛中投注得很好，我发现了另一个非常有利可图的投注机会!最大的、往往相当精明的博彩公司接受客户最大的赌注，他们认为访客是这里的最受欢迎的人。我不同意他们的观点!根据我的数据分析，主队更有可能拿到全部三分!本赛季到目前为止，他们在这个联赛的主场表现令人印象深刻。他们有响亮而苛刻的粉丝，他们会大力支持他们!预计这场比赛将比典型的英乙比赛更具防守性和谨慎性。然而，到目前为止，博彩公司和投注者已经意识到这一点，并且低于2.5的总进球已经从开始的赔率下降到或多或少正确的水平。然而，抽签的赔率有点太高了——至少目前是这样。这个结果的概率是33.5%。对于两支球队来说，一分可能是一个不错的成绩。

卡莱尔本赛季在布伦顿公园球场只输了三场比赛，他们在这21场比赛中的比分差距令人信服——30:16。看来博彩公司没有给予这个因素足够的重视。球场的气氛将是非凡的，因为升级到第三梯队对球迷来说意味着很多!卡莱尔最近在进球方面表现不佳，尽管他们在英乙联赛中比客队进了更多的球——60个，但目前我认为斯托克波特在这方面的表现稍强一些。就防守质量而言，两支球队几乎没有什么不同。根据今天的预期阵容，我认为客队稍微好一点，但主场优势使卡莱尔更受欢迎!两个队最近状态都很好。东道主已经输了两场，斯托克波特在最近的10场比赛中只输了一场。此外，两队都有71分——斯托克波特排名第四，卡莱尔排名第五。卡莱尔已经连续两场0:0战平。在这两场比赛中，两支球队的预期进球数都不到1.00 (xG)。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场面对一支强大的球队，目前排名第二的北安普顿，他们的控球率略高，达到53%，射门次数(7-3)，传球次数，完成传球次数，进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。他们的xG值为0.87，访客的xG值为0.65。在此之前，他们在主场面对沃尔索尔，并且在55%的控球率下表现得更好。卡莱尔的射门次数(3胜2负)、射门次数(12胜7负)、传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。他们的xG值为0.68，东道主的xG值仅为0.33。另一方面，斯托克波特面对的是吉林厄姆，目前排名第18位，没有什么可打的，客场比赛，非常令人失望，根据博彩公司的预测，这是非常明显的热门——胜率在2.00左右。尽管他们有62%的控球率，但他们只是稍微好一点。事实上，两队都有4次射正。Stockports的xG为0.81，主机生成的xG为0.72。