Raufoss VS KFUM Oslo

Raufoss host KFUM Oslo for this Norwegian 1. Division, also known as OBOS-Ligaen, round two clash at NAMMO Stadion Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the second-tier of Norwegian football and is of pretty low-level by European standards and the difference compared to the first tier, Elitserien, is substantial. We did very well betting on this league last season – the bookies seem to make quite a few mistakes with their odds.. Based on my data-based, sophisticated in-depth analysis the biggest, quite often somewhat smart bookmakers who accept the biggest bets from customers have the wrong favorite here. These bookies offer the visitors odds of around 2.50 to take all three points - at least at the time of writing this analysis very early Sunday morning Beijing time. However, I do expect the odds on the hosts to go down before the match starts as clever money is expected to pile up on Raufoss. With the expected lineups the hosts have a 43% chance of winning. This is Raufoss' first home game of the season in OBOS-Ligaen and a good number of fans and a pretty enthusiastic atmosphere is expected here! Even so, on average the home advantage in this league is a bit smaller than in for example Spanish LaLiga or the Italian Serie A. Last season was a disappointment for Raufoss who finished in 12th place. However, they would have deserved much more points in terms of expected points than actual number. We have every reason to expect them to improve this season – in all areas of the game. I trust their often undervalued coach – he is a tactically smart guy and a good leader.KFUM Oslo, on the other hand, played a good season grabbing 52 points and finished in 4th place. They netted the ball 61 times and allowed 48 goals. Indeed, their defense was not very solid and even Mjondalen, who finished in 9th place, allowed less goals..

I would be surprised to see the visitors finish in the top-5 this season. I also do not fully trust their coach who is overrated in my opinion. Their number of expected points (xPTS) last season was just 46.23. Many players played above their normal level. It seems the bookies give too much emphasis on last season here.. Raufoss lost 0-1 away from home in the opening round to Hodd. Their offensive football was not great but will surely improve as the season progresses. Early season - when even the top teams in top leagues still have work to do with their game - the number of expected goals is often a bit lower than the betting market estimates. Attacking is usually harder than defending and this is the case here as well. The draw is a more probable result here than the bookies think and so is the probability of under 2.5 total goals as well – my estimation is 49%. Despite the slightly lame offense Raufoss would have deserved at least a point against Hodd. They were clear underdogs in this match – priced around 3.60 to win on the betting market. Even so, they had 60% ball possession and recorded more shots on goal (3-2), goal attempts (9-5), attacks (90-63) and dangerous attacks. I want to highlight that Hodd defended better than I would have expected in this game. KFUM Oslo, on the other hand, were a bit disappointing against Songndal as clear favorites, priced around 1.85 to win by the bookies. They did have 55% ball possession but the visitors recorded more shots on goal and scoring attempts. It was a 1-1 draw after a relatively low-quality game.

诺霍斯主场迎战 KFUM奥斯陆，挪威甲级联赛，也称为 OBOS-Ligaen，北京时间周日晚上在 NAMMO 体育场进行第二轮交锋。这是挪威足球的二级联赛，按照欧洲标准来看属于低级别联赛，与一级联赛 Elitserien 相比差异很大。上个赛季我们在这个联赛上投注得很好——公司似乎在他们的数据上犯了很多错误。根据我基于数据的、复杂的深入分析，最大的、通常有些聪明的公司接受了最大的赌注来自彩民对比赛认知有误。这些公司为客队提供了大约 2.50 的数据来获得全部三分 - 至少在北京时间周日凌晨撰写此分析时是这样。然而，我预计主队的数据在比赛开始前下降，更多的资金会流向主队。凭借预测的阵容，主队有 43% 的获胜机会。这是诺霍斯本赛季第一场主场比赛，大量的球迷和相当热情的气氛预计在这里！即便如此，平均而言，这个联赛的主场优势比西班牙西甲或意大利甲级联赛要小一些。上赛季排名第 12 位的劳福斯令人失望。然而，就预期分数而言，他们应该得到比实际分数更多的分数。我们完全有理由期待他们在本赛季有所进步——在比赛的各个方面。我相信他们经常被低估的教练——他是一个战术上很聪明的人，也是一个很好的领导者。另一方面，奥斯陆打出了一个不错的赛季，拿到了 52 分，排名第四。他们打进了 61 球，丢了 48 个球。的确，他们的防守不是很稳固，就连排名第9的Mjondalen也丢了更少的球。

如果客队本赛季进入前 5 名，我会感到很惊讶。我也不完全信任他们的教练，我认为他被高估了。他们上赛季的预期得分 (xPTS) 仅为 46.23。许多球员的表现都超出了他们的正常水平。似乎博彩公司过分强调了上个赛季。劳福斯在首轮比赛中客场 0-1 输给了霍德。他们的进攻足球不是很好，但随着赛季的进行肯定会有所改善。赛季初——即使是顶级联赛中的顶级球队也仍然有比赛要做——预期进球数通常略低于博彩市场的估计。进攻通常比防守更难，这里也是如此。平局的可能性比博彩公司认为的要大，总进球数低于 2.5 的可能性也是如此——我的估计是 49%。尽管进攻略显蹩脚，劳福斯在对阵霍德的比赛中至少应该得到一分。他们在这场比赛中明显处于劣势——在博彩市场上获胜的赔率约为 3.60。即便如此，他们拥有 60% 的控球率并且射门次数更多 (3-2)，尝试 (9-5)、攻击 (90-63) 和危险攻击。我想强调的是，霍德在这场比赛中的防守比我预期的要好。另一方面，KFUM奥斯陆在对阵 Songndal 时有点令人失望，因为 Songndal 是明显的热门，机构的数据约为 1.85。他们拥有 55% 的控球率，但客队的射门次数和得分次数更多。在一场质量相对较低的比赛之后，这应该是一场 1-1 的平局。