Auxerre VS Nantes

Auxerre welcome Nantes for this Ligue 1 round 31 clash at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the fourth-best league in Europe and decent entertainment is available here for football fans. However, my fans' and my main priority is to make a long-term profit and we have done very well betting on this league! Once again we have a very lucrative betting opportunity! I cannot agree with the biggest, often rather smart bookmakers who accept the biggest bets from customers. These bookies offer the hosts odds of around 2.55-2.60 to send the visitors home empty-handed. However, I do expect the odds on the visitors to go down before the kickoff though as smart money is expected to pile up on Nantes. With the expected lineups they have a 38% chance of winning. The hosts are missing Dugimont, Mensah, Owasu, Ruiz-Atil and Sakhi, Nantes will have to manage without Chirivella, Descamps, Hadjam, Joao Victor and Pallois. The visitors have scored 32 goals but I want to highlight that they would have deserved many more in terms of xG – 37.63. Auxerre have been lame offensively this season and have netted the ball just 27 times in Ligue 1. I see the goal expectancy here as slightly lower than the betting market does – based on my sophisticated in-depth data-bases analysis the probability for under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 67%. The draw would not surprise anyone and this result is also more probable than the bookies estimate – and would be enough for us to win with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap option.

I expect Nantes' very good coach to choose a pretty defensive strategy here- as this seems to work a little better than an offensive one - despite the opponent not being very strong. Auxerre have allowed a whopping 51 goals in Ligue 1 so far and in this area of the game the teams area the visitors have a very clear edge. However, I need to mention that in terms of expected goals allowed (xGA) Auxerre have been a little unlucky as they should have conceded just 48.12 goals and have improved defensively recently. Auxerre have taken two wins in a row but would not really have deserved the three points in either game. These wins seem to have excited the betting market way too much which does probably – in part – explain the overvaluation here. They beat Ajaccio in their most recent game 3-0 away from home but the final score is very misleading. Ajaccio, currently in 19th place in this league with a total of 20 clubs had 57% ball possession and recorded many more total passes, completed passesm attacks and dangerous attacks. They also recorded much more in xG 1.54-0.59! Before this they beat Troys, another lowly team, 1-0 at home. The visitors had 62% ball possession and recorded many more total passes, completed passes, attacks (130-86) and dangerous attacks – 54.42. They also created more in xG 1.55-0.86.

Last season Nantes finished much higher up in the standings and even played in the UEFA Europa League this season but in Ligue 1 they have not met the expectations. The opponents in the Europa League were too good in the end though but Nantes did play pretty well at times. I have them in 11th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class and do expect them to topple 1-2 teams during the remainder of the season. In terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved around 38.67 points but in reality have just 31 points to their account.. They fought very well against Monaco last week-end and came back from 0-2 in the second half and were close to even winning the game in the end! They showed great fighting spirit – once again! It was a 2-2 draw at home as clear underdogs according to the betting market.. Nantes' xG was 1.43 and the visitors created 1.39. Before this Nantes beat Lyon, a pretty strong team - who are currently in the 7th place in the standings - as clear underdogs 1-0 at home. It was a Coupe de France (French Cup) clash. Lyon had 67% ball possession but Nantes defended in a solid way allowing Lyon just one shot on goal. Before this they lost to Reims 0-3 but the match was somewhat balanced. Nantes created 1.68 in xG - Reims generated 1.89.

法甲第31轮北京时间周日晚，欧塞尔迎战南特。这是欧洲排名第四的联赛，球迷们可以在这里享受体面的娱乐活动。然而，我的球迷和我的首要任务是获得长期利润，我们在这个联赛上的投注做得很好！我们又一次获得了非常有利可图的投注机会！我不同意接受客户最大赌注的最大、通常相当聪明的博彩公司。这些博彩公司为东道主提供大约 2.55-2.60 的赔率，让游客空手回家。然而，我确实预计客队在开球前的赔率会下降，尽管聪明的钱预计会涌入南特。凭借预期的阵容，他们有 38% 的获胜机会。东道主缺少 Dugimont、Mensah、Owasu、Ruiz-Atil 和 Sakhi，南特将不得不在没有 Chirivella、Descamps、Hadjam、Joao Victor 和 Pallois 的情况下进行管理。客队进了 32 个球，但我想强调他们在 xG – 37.63 方面应该得到更多。欧塞尔本赛季的进攻一直很糟糕，在法甲联赛中只进了 27 球。我认为这里的进球预期略低于博彩市场——根据我复杂的深度数据库分析，低于 2.5 的概率总进球数为67%。平局不会让任何人感到惊讶，而且这个结果也比博彩公司的估计更有可能——并且足以让我们在推荐的 +0.5 球让分选项下获胜。

我预计南特的优秀教练在这里选择一种相当防守的策略——因为这似乎比进攻策略更有效——尽管对手不是很强。到目前为止，欧塞尔在法甲联赛中的进球数高达 51 球，而在这一场比赛中，客队拥有非常明显的优势。然而，我需要指出的是，就预期进球数 (xGA) 而言，欧塞尔有点不走运，因为他们本应只丢 48.12 个球，并且最近防守有所改善。欧塞尔连胜两场，但在两场比赛中都配不上三分。这些胜利似乎让博彩市场过于兴奋，这可能——部分——解释了这里的高估。他们在最近的一场比赛中客场 3-0 击败阿雅克肖，但最终比分非常具有误导性。阿雅克肖目前在联赛中排名第 19 位，共有 20 家具乐部拥有 57% 的控球率，并且记录了更多的传球次数、完成的传球攻击和危险的攻击。他们还在 xG 1.54-0.59 中记录了更多！在此之前，他们在主场以1-0击败了另一支弱队特洛伊队。客队拥有 62% 的控球率，传球总数、完成传球次数、进攻次数 (130-86) 和危险进攻次数也多得多——54.42 次。他们还在预期进球上1.55-0.86 中创造了更多。

上赛季南特在积分榜上名列前茅，本赛季甚至参加了欧洲联赛但在 Ligue 1 他们没有达到预期。欧罗巴联赛的对手虽然最后太强了，但南特有时确实踢得很好。在我的实力评级中，他们排在第 11 位，这反映了球队的纯级别，并且确实希望他们在本赛季剩余时间里击败 1-2 支球队。就预期积分 (xPTS) 而言，他们本应得到 38.67 分左右，但实际上他们的账户只有 31 分。他们在上周末对阵摩纳哥的比赛中表现出色，下半场从 0-2 逆转，接近于最终赢得比赛！他们表现出极大的斗志——再一次！根据博彩市场，主场 2-2 平局，明显处于劣势。南特的 xG 为 1.43，客队创造了 1.39。在此之前，南特队在主场以 1-0 击败了里昂，这是一支相当强大的球队 - 目前在积分榜上排名第 7 位 - 明显处于劣势。这是一场 Coupe de France（法国杯）比赛。里昂拥有 67% 的控球率，但南特防守稳固，让里昂只有一次射门。在此之前他们以 0-3 输给了兰斯，但比赛有些平衡。南特在预期进球方面创造了 1.68 - 兰斯创造了 1.89。预测南特不败。