Swindon vs Barrow

Swindon host Barrow for this English League Two round 42 battle at County Ground late Saturday evening Beijing time. However, in reality the hosts have played only 40 matches in this league so far. Barrow, have taken the pitch 41 times. This is the fourth-highest level of English football and is definitely the best fourth tier on the planet. Most teams play pretty straight-forward, physical football. Individually skilled players are pretty rare in this league. My fans and I have done well betting on this league and once again I have found a match where the bookies have made a mistake with their odds. We have to take advantage of this mistake. Indeed, the biggest, often somewhat sharp bookmakers that offer the biggest stake limits see the hosts as favorites here. These bookies offer odds of around 2.60 for the hosts to win. I cannot agree with this at all..

Let's first take a look at the motivation factor. Do not het me wrong – surely every team in the UK want to win at home but I' talking about that 5-10% extra effort in tight situations – trying to win a ball, press the opponent as hard as possible or make long, physically demanding runs to defend the best way possible. Long-term data on various leagues clearly prove the existence of the late season motivation factor. Swindon are having a little disappointing season and are currently in 12th place with 51 points to their account. They have been safe from relegation for a long time already but do not have a chance to make it to the top-7 – and an opportunity to fight for promotion to League One. They have looked a bit lazy – and some players even not 100% motivated in some games recently. They have not won any of their eight games! Moreover, they have lost four games in a row. In their most recent match they lost to Tranmere 0-1 away from home.They did have 66% ball possession but were lame offensively recording only two hosts on goal. Tranmere created more in expected goals (xG) in this match – 1.16-0.77 to be precise. Before this they were very shaky in defense and lost to Mansfield 2-4 at home. Barrow still have a chance to make it to top-7 as they have 61 points in the pocket and are surely massively motivated here. They crushed Crawley 4-0 at home in their most recent game after a fine performance and are the favorites to win this game!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周六晚些时候，斯温顿主场迎战巴罗，他们将迎战英乙第42轮的比赛。然而，事实上，东道主到目前为止只参加了40场联赛。巴罗，已经上场41次了。这是英格兰足球的第四高水平，绝对是这个星球上最好的第四梯队。大多数球队踢的都是直截了当的身体对抗足球。在这个联盟中，有个人技术的球员是非常罕见的。我和我的球迷在这个联赛上赌得很好，我又一次发现了一场博彩公司在赔率上犯了错误的比赛。我们必须利用这个错误。事实上，那些提供最高赌注限制的规模最大、往往有些精明的博彩公司将东道主视为最受欢迎的球队。这些博彩公司提供的东道主获胜的赔率约为2.60。我完全不同意这一点。

让我们先来看看动机因素。不要误解我的意思，当然英国的每支球队都想在主场赢球，但我说的是在紧张的情况下额外付出5-10%的努力——试图赢得球，尽可能地压迫对手，或者进行长距离、体力消耗的奔跑，以尽可能好的方式防守。各个联赛的长期数据清楚地证明了赛季末激励因素的存在。斯温登本赛季的表现有点令人失望，目前积51分排在第12位。他们已经保级很长一段时间了，但没有机会进入前7名，也没有机会为升级到英甲而战。他们看起来有点懒惰——有些球员在最近的一些比赛中甚至没有100%的积极性。他们八场比赛一场也没赢过!此外，他们已经连续输了四场比赛。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场0-1输给了特雷米尔。他们确实有66%的控球率，但进攻很糟糕，只有两个东道主进球。在这场比赛中，transmere创造了更多的预期进球(xG)，准确地说是1.16-0.77。在此之前，他们的防守非常不稳定，在主场2-4输给了曼斯菲尔德。巴罗仍然有机会进入前7名，因为他们在口袋里有61分，肯定在这里有很大的动力。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场4-0击败了克劳利队，表现出色，是这场比赛的夺冠热门!