Palmeiras VS Tombense

Palmeiras and Tombense lock horns in this Copa do Brasil /Brazilian Cup) 1/16-final first leg battle at Allianz Parque in Sao Paulo Thursday morning Beijing time. There is, of course, no doubt about the fact that Palmeiras are very clear favorites here. They have a 75% chance to win this game. They are the reigning Serie A champions. Indeed, they grabbed a total of 81 points last season and had a score difference of 66:27. Even so, in terms of expected goals (xG) they were lucky and would have deserved just 61.12 goals. Moreover, their number of expected points (xPTS) was 76.22. I believe the last Serie A season is one of the factors that explain the hosts being overvalued in this match. All my fans and I need here is for Tobensse, a mediocre team from Serie B, to avoid losing by more than two goals difference. The probability for this is 69%. I expect them to be very defensive here and trust their often under-rated coach to prepare his men for this massive challenge ahead! I see the game as more low-scoring than the betting market does - the probability for under 3.5 total goals to be scored is 72%. 2-0 is a pretty probable final score here. Tombense have been in good form lately and have not lost any of their most recent five games. Furthermore, they have lost just one of their latest 12 matches and seem to be high in confidence! Of course the opponents have been worse than Palmeitas. Even so, I want to highlight that they last lost by more than two goals' margin on the 10th of September last year!

Tombense have won two of their most recent games - both were against Vila Nova MG in Campeonato Mineiro. At home, on the 2nd of April, they won 3-2 and away from home 2-1 on the 26th of March. They were the better team on the pitch in both games. Before this they were not at their best, also in Campeonato Mineiro, and Pouso Alegre forced them into a goalless draw. Even so, I liked the way Tombense defended in this game. Defense will be the key to success against Palmeiras as scoring more than once is pretty unlikely and the hosts will probably control the ball 65-75% of the 90 minutes of play. Palmeiras have, however, not been at their best lately despite beating Agua Santa, a pretty small team, in their most recent match 4-0 at home. It was the Campeonato Paulista Play Offs final second leg. They were priced around 1.20 to win the game on the betting market  . yet another game where the bookies overvalued them.  Yes, they deserved to win but the final score is still extremely misleading! The ball possession was just 50-50% and the visitors even recorded more total passes and completed passes!  They had their chances to score too – creating nine goal attempts. Palmairas' number was bigger though 18 - to be precise. In the first leg Agua Santa beat Palmeiras 2-1 as very clear underdogs! Between these games Palmeiras were disappointing away from home against Bolivar, a team from Bolivia, losing 1-3. It was a Copa Libertadores group stage round 1 clash. Bolivar had 55% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (20-9), shots on goal (8-3), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. The hosts also created 2.01 in xG - Palmeiras managed just 0.43. The visitors will surely improve when Serie A starts but look a bit vulnerable here.