Belgrano VS CA Huracan

Belgrano host Huracan at Estadio Julio Cesar Villagra in Cordoba for this Argentinian Liga Profesional round 11 battle early Thursday morning Beijing time. This league is of lower level as a whole by international standards than many football fans probably think - taking into account what an awesome football country Argentina is in terms of football culture and – of course, Argentina lifted the World Cup trophy last December in Qatar! Belgrano were promoted from Primera Nacional for this season and I expected them to do worse this season than most football journalists and – most importantly - the betting market in my in-depth preseason analysis. The pace of the game and players' individual skill-level in this league are overall much higher than at the second tier. I am not sure if the bookmakers give these factors enough emphasis.. However, I must admit that I probably did slightly underestimate Belgrano a little ahead of the season.. Even so, they are definitely not as strong as the league table would suggest! Defensively they have been much better than I would have thought and have allowed just eight goals in this league so far. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 11.98. Offensively they have struggled - as expected - and have netted the ball just eight times. I do not fully trust their coach in general and especially not in his – or his squad's ability to improve offensively. . Even Colon Santa Fe, currently in 25th place in this league with a total of 28 clubs have scored the same number of goals as Belgrano!

Huracan have definitely been a disappointment so far this season and I have moderately lowered their power rating from the sophisticated in-depth preseason analysis. The biggest, often rather sharp bookmakers have, luckily for my fans and me, reacted much more and see the hosts as favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.60 to send to visitors home empty-handed. I disagree and with today's expected lineups I see Huracan as the favorites here – not very clear of course though. The hosts are missing Barrea, Meriano, Oliver and Tapia. The visitors will have to manage without Castro, Gudino and Pizarro. There is no denying the fact that Huracan have had big defensive problems in many games this season. Indeed, they have allowed 15 goals. However, their number of xGA is just 11.23. Taking into account the potential they have I see them having an edge over the hosts even in this area of the game. Offensively the difference in Huracan's favor is bigger - they have scored 13 goals in Liga Profesional. I believe it is only a matter of time until they start climbing up the standings from the current 19th place! They have 12 points to their account but their number of expected points (xPTS) is clearly higher! Let's not forget that last season Huracan finished in 4th place with 47 points – just five points behind the champions Boca Juniors, a very big club in Argentina! Huracan had a goal difference of 35:21. The 21 goals allowed was the smallest number in this league last season! Not that much has, after all, changed from last season..

According to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Huracan's players have a total market value of around 36 million euros. In my opinion this is more or less correct.. Belgrano's players have a total market value of approximately 16 million which is a bit low in my view – but – is not a big number by Liga Profesional standards! Despite the fair value for the hosts' squad being at around 18 million the visitors still have a considerable edge in terms of pure class! The total market value can, of course, sometimes be misleading but is still a relatively good indicator of a team's level in real action on the pitch.. The football (player) market is, after all, a global one.. The sharp bookmakers, football journalists, analysts and particularly professional football bettors pay more and more attention to teams' total market values nowadays.. However, if two players are equally capable and one of them is 22 years old and the other one is 32, the younger one is, of course, much more valuable! For example, World Champion Leo Messi or Barcelona's Polish super star Robert Lewandowski do not have even close to the biggest current market value despite being top-10 players on the planet! Furthermore, for example super-promising Englishman Jude Bellingham, just 19 years old, has a significantly higher market value than the legendary super stars Messi or Lewadowski Neither team are in particularly good form at the moment winning 1/3 of their latest games. The hosts did beat Union de Santa Fe in their most recent game 3-0 away from home. I will not say the win was undeserved as they did have 70% ball possession and did play pretty well. The hosts were not at their best in this game though. The key takeaway here is that the final score is very misleading as the hosts even recorded more shots on goal as well as scoring attempts. Huracan were not great in their most recent match and lost 0-3 at home as very clear underdogs according to the bookies. A big and strong club, River Plate, were too good but the match was still more balanced than the final score would reflect. Before this, Huracan crushed Guarani, a team from Paraguay, in a Copa Sudamericana group stage round 1 game 4-1 at home. Surely a big boost for their confidence which has understandably taken a hit early season..

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北京时间周四凌晨，贝尔格拉诺将在科尔多瓦的胡利奥·塞萨尔·比利亚格拉球场迎战阿根廷职业联赛第11轮的Huracan。从国际标准来看，这个联赛的整体水平可能比许多球迷想象的要低——考虑到阿根廷在足球文化方面是一个多么令人敬畏的足球国家——当然，阿根廷去年12月在卡塔尔举起了世界杯奖杯!贝尔格拉诺本赛季从国家甲级联赛升级，在我的季前赛深度分析中，我预计他们本赛季的表现会比大多数足球记者更差，更重要的是，他们的博彩市场表现会比我的季前赛深度分析更差。这个联赛的比赛节奏和球员的个人技术水平总体上要比第二梯队高得多。我不确定博彩公司是否给予了这些因素足够的重视。然而，我必须承认我可能在赛季前有点低估了贝尔格拉诺。即便如此，他们也绝对没有排名榜上显示的那么强!在防守上，他们比我想象的要好得多，到目前为止，他们在这个联赛中只丢了8个球。然而，他们的期望进球数(xGA)是11.98。在进攻端，他们表现不佳——正如预期的那样——他们只进了8次球。总的来说，我并不完全信任他们的教练，尤其不相信他或他的球队在进攻端的提升能力。即使是科隆圣达菲，目前在联赛中排名第25位，共有28家俱乐部，进球数与贝尔格拉诺相同!

本赛季到目前为止，飓风队确实令人失望，我从复杂深入的季前赛分析中适度降低了他们的实力评级。对我和我的粉丝来说幸运的是，最大的、通常相当精明的博彩公司的反应要热烈得多，他们认为东道主是最受欢迎的，给他们开出了2.60左右的赔率，让游客空手而归。我不同意，今天的预期阵容，我认为Huracan在这里是最受欢迎的-当然不是很清楚。东道主少了巴雷亚、梅里亚诺、奥利弗和塔皮亚。客队将不得不面对没有卡斯特罗、古迪诺和皮萨罗的情况。不可否认的事实是，飓风队在本赛季的很多比赛中都有很大的防守问题。事实上，他们已经失球15个。然而，它们的xGA数量只有11.23。考虑到他们的潜力，我认为他们在这方面比东道主更有优势。在进攻端，Huracan的优势更大——他们在西甲职业联赛中打进了13球。我相信他们从现在的第19名开始上升只是时间问题!他们的账户上有12分，但他们的期望点数(xPTS)显然更高!别忘了上赛季Huracan以47分排名第四，仅落后阿根廷豪门博卡青年队5分!Huracan队净胜球35:21。21个失球是上赛季联赛中最少的!毕竟，与上一季相比，变化不大。

Huracan球员的总市值约为3600万欧元。在我看来，这或多或少是正确的。贝尔格拉诺球员的总市值约为1600万美元，在我看来有点低，但以西甲职业联赛的标准来看，这并不是一个大数字!尽管东道主球队的身价在1800万左右，客队在纯粹的级别上仍然有相当大的优势!当然，总市值有时会被误导，但它仍然是一个相对较好的衡量球队在球场上实际表现水平的指标。足球(球员)市场毕竟是全球性的。如今，精明的博彩公司、足球记者、分析师，尤其是职业足球投注者越来越关注球队的总市场价值。然而，如果两个球员能力相当，其中一个22岁，另一个32岁，那么年轻的球员当然更有价值!例如，世界冠军里奥·梅西或巴塞罗那的波兰超级球星罗伯特·莱万多夫斯基，尽管是地球上排名前十的球员，但他们甚至没有接近目前最大的市场价值!此外，例如年仅19岁的英国人裘德·贝灵汉，他的市场价值明显高于传奇巨星梅西或利瓦多夫斯基，这两支球队目前状态都不是特别好，他们最近的比赛赢了三分之一。东道主在最近的一场客场比赛中以3-0击败了圣达菲联盟。我不会说这场胜利是不应得的，因为他们确实有70%的控球率，而且确实踢得很好。不过，东道主在这场比赛中并没有发挥出最佳状态。这里的关键结论是，最终的比分非常具有误导性，因为东道主甚至记录了更多的射门和得分尝试。Huracan在最近的比赛中表现不佳，在主场以0-3输掉了比赛。一个强大的大俱乐部，河床，表现得太好了，但比赛仍然比最终比分所反映的更加平衡。在此之前，Huracan在南美杯小组赛第一轮主场4-1大胜巴拉圭瓜拉尼队。这无疑会极大地提升他们的信心，而他们的信心在赛季初受到了可以理解的打击。