Nantes vs Monaco

Nantes host Monaco for this French Ligue 1round 30 battle at Stade de la Beaujoire late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the fourth-best league in the world and we can expect pretty good entertainment here between these two teams. Monaco have played offensive, at times even overly aggressive football in many games this season. Indeed, they have netted the ball a whopping 61 times in Ligue 1 so far this season. Only PSG, who currently top the standings – have scored more goals – 70. In this area of the game they have a clear edge over Nantes. Even so, the visitors' number of expected goals (xG) is just 51.98. Nantes have scored 30 goals but they would have deserved many more in terms of xG – 36.03 to be precise. Despite the offensive power both teams possess I see the goal expectancy here as slightly lower than the betting market does – based on my sophisticated in-depth analysis the probability for under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 48%. I expect Nantes' excellent coach to choose pretty defensive strategy and formation here as this should be the best way to grab at least a point here. Trying to beat Monaco in an open ”goal-scoring contest" kind of match is not a good idea for Nantes.. Both teams have allowed 40 goals in this league so far and in this area of the game the teams are more or less equal.

There is no doubt about the fact that Monaco are the favorites here – even taking into account the substantial home advantage. Even so, I cannot agree with the biggest, often pretty sharp bookmakers who accept the biggest bets from customers! These bookies offer the visitors odds of around 1.95-2.00 to travel home with all three points. I do expect the odds on the hosts to go down before the kickoff though as clever money is expected to pile up on Nantes. All my fans and I need to win again betting on this league is for Nantes to avoid defeat. The probability for this is 58%. Nantes currently occupy the 14th place in the league table and there is no denying that they are denying that their season has been a disappointment. Last season they finished much higher up in the standings and even played in the UEFA Europa League this season. The opponents there were too strong though but they did play pretty well at times. I have them in 11th place in my power rating that reflects the teams pure class and do expect them to topple a few teams until the season comes to an end. In terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved around 37 or 38 points but in reality have only 30 points in the pocket. The standings are indeed misleading as Monaco have grabbed 57 points but their xPTS is just 48.11! They are in fourth place but I would be at all surprised to see them finish 5th or even 6th.. In their most recent match they had some luck on their side beating Strasbourg at home in a highly entertaining game 4-3. They were big favorites in this match – priced around 1.55 to win on the betting market. In reality the visitors were even a little better on the pitch recording more scoring attempts (13-9), attacks and xG - 1.55-1.89. The ball possession was 50-50%. Nantes beat Lyon, a dangerous team, as clear underdogs in their most recent game 1-0 at home. It was a Coupe de France (French Cup) game. Lyon had 67% ball possession but Nantes defended well allowing the visitors just one shot on target. Before this they lost to Reims 0-3 but the match was pretty balanced as a whole. Nantes' xG was 1.68 and Reims created 1.89.

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北京时间周日晚些时候，法甲第30轮，南特主场迎战摩纳哥。这是世界上第四大联赛，我们可以期待这两支球队在这里进行相当精彩的比赛。摩纳哥在本赛季的许多比赛中都很有攻击性，有时甚至过于激进。事实上，本赛季到目前为止，他们已经在法甲联赛中破门61次。只有目前排名第一的巴黎圣日耳曼打进了更多的球——70个。在这方面他们比南特有明显的优势。即便如此，客队的预期进球数(xG)也只有51.98个。南特已经进了30个球，但他们应该得到更多的xG - 36.03准确地说。尽管两支球队都拥有强大的进攻能力，但我认为这里的进球期望略低于博彩市场——基于我复杂的深入分析，总进球数低于2.5的概率为48%。我希望南特的优秀教练在这里选择漂亮的防守策略和阵型，因为这应该是至少在这里抢一分的最佳方式。试图在一场公开的“进球比赛”中击败摩纳哥对南特来说不是一个好主意。到目前为止，两支球队在联赛中都丢了40个球，在这方面两支球队或多或少旗鼓相当。

毫无疑问，摩纳哥是这里最受欢迎的球队——即使考虑到他们在主场的巨大优势。即便如此，我也不同意那些规模最大、往往相当精明的博彩公司接受客户最大的赌注!这些博彩公司为游客提供约1.95-2.00的赔率，让他们带着这三分回家。我确实希望在开球前，东道主获胜的几率会下降，因为聪明的钱会堆积在南特队身上。我和我所有的球迷都需要再赢一次，赌这个联赛是为了让南特避免失败。这个概率是58%南特目前在积分榜上排名第14位，不可否认的是，他们否认这个赛季令人失望。上赛季他们在积分榜上名列前茅，本赛季甚至还参加了欧联杯。虽然那里的对手太强大了，但他们有时确实踢得很好。在我的实力评估中，他们排在第11位，这反映了这支球队的纯粹水平，我确实希望他们在赛季结束前击败几支球队。就预期得分(xPTS)而言，他们本应得到37或38分左右，但实际上只有30分。排名确实具有误导性，因为摩纳哥已经获得了57分，但他们的xPTS只有48.11分!他们现在排在第四，但如果他们排在第五甚至第六，我会很惊讶。在最近的一场比赛中，他们运气不错，在主场以4-3击败了斯特拉斯堡。他们在这场比赛中是大热门，在博彩市场上的定价约为1.55英镑。事实上，客队在场上表现得更好一些，记录了更多的进球次数(13-9)，进攻和xG - 1.55-1.89。控球率是50% -50%。南特在最近的一场主场比赛中以1-0击败了一支危险的球队里昂。这是一场法兰西杯比赛。里昂有67%的控球率，但南特防守得很好，只让客队射正了一次。在此之前，他们0-3输给了兰斯，但比赛总体上相当平衡。南特的xG为1.68，兰斯为1.89。