Cheltenham vs Sheffield Wednesday

Cheltenham welcome Shheffield Wednesday for this English League One round 26 clash at Whaddon Road early Wednesday morning Beijing time. This is the third-highest level of English football and is definitely the best fourth tier on the planet. However, in reality both teams have played 37 matches  in this league so far this season. There is a massive difference between the two teams here! The biggest, often rather sharp bookies offer the visitors odds of around 1.60 to take all three points. I would not be at all surprised to see their odds go down before the kickoff though. Sheffield Wednesday have a 67% chance of winning. They currently occupy the second place in the standings with 78 points to their account. However, I have them in first place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. They will most probably be promoted to the Championship for next year. They have netted the ball 64 times - Cheltenham have scored just 32 times and especially in this area of the game the gap between the teams is gigantic. Moreover, the visitors' defense has been extremely solid – they have allowed just 28 goals. This is the lowest number in this league with a total of 24 clubs. Cheltenham have improved defensively lately but I do not expect them to be able to stop the visitors' skilled strikers. Cheltenham have allowed 47 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 49.22

The visitors are a much bigger club by financial resources, historical success and players market value.According to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Sheffield Wednesday players have a total market value of over 13 million euros - a big number for this level. In my opinion this is clearly too low.. I would set the number at around 16-17 million..! In their most recent match they lost to Forest Green 0-1 away from home but were unlucky. They recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Moreover, they had 66% ball possession. The hosts' players have a total market value of around 5 million which is more or less correct in my view.The total market value can, of course, sometimes be misleading but is still a relatively good indicator of a team's level in real action on the pitch.. The football (player) market is, after all, a global one. The smart, big bookmakers, football journalists/analysts and especially professional football bettors pay more and more attention to teams' total market values these days.. However, if two players are equally capable and one of them is 23 years old and the other one is 33, the younger one is, of course, much more valuable. For example, World Champion Leo Messi or Barcelona's Polish super star Robert Lewandowski do not have even close to the highest current market value despite being top-8 players on the planet! Furthermore, for example super-promising Englishman Jude Bellingham, just 19 years old, has a significantly higher market value than the legendary super stars Messi or Lewadowski at the moment.. Before the game against Forest Green the visitors lost to Barnsley, a pretty dangerous team 2-4 away from home despite creating 3.02 in expected goals (xG). Bansley's number was 1.57. Sheffield Wednesday recorded more goal attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks and had 58% ball possession. These two losses seem to affect the odds too much here.. Cheltenham have won two games in a row but have had a lot of luck on their side and have overvalued here! On the 11th of this month they beat Peterborough 3-0 away from home despite recording just 28% ball possession and 0.49 in xG. The hosts created 1.72. In their most recent game Cheltenham defeated Exeter 3-1 at home but had only 27% ball possession. The visitors recorded 1.54 in xG – Cheltenham managed just 0.80.