Only 4 rounds are left in the Euroleague regular season. On Wednesday night, Crvena Zvezda is going to host Valencia. After 30 games, Crvena Zvezda has 13 wins and 17 losses which gives them the 13th position while Valencia has 14 wins, 16 losses and the 11th place. In this game, I'm predicting that Crvena Zvezda is going to cover the handicap.

Crvena Zvezda is in a very tough situation. As of right now, the team is 3 wins away from the playoff spot and they have 4 games left. It is very unlikely that the team will be in the TOP8 because they not only have to win but also opponents have to lose. The last couple of rounds is going to be a battle for pride, and Crvena Zvezda has won 2 games in a row in all competitions. The Serbian team has won only 2 out of the last 4 Euroleague games but both victories were at home against good-level teams: Anadolu Efes and Baskonia. Crvena Zvezda allows teams to score just 78.2 points per game which is 5th best result.

It is very unlikely that Valencia will have a spot in the TOP8 as well. With 4 games remaining, Valencia has to play against Crvena Zvezda, Zalgiris, Virtus and Barcelona. Lately, the Spanish team has performed poorly because they have just 1 win in the last 6 games. If we look at their road record, the team has 6 wins and 8 losses but 3 wins were against one of the worst teams in the league: Panathinaikos (17th), Alba (15th) and ASVEL (14th). Valencia struggles on defense as they allow 85.7 points per game which is the 3rd worst result this season. Valencia also allows opponents to shoot with 59% accuracy which is the 3rd worst result in the competition.

It looks like Crvena Zvezda is going to be without Luca Vildoza and Nemanja Nedovic. Yes, they are important players but Crvena Zvezda has other household names like Facundo Campazzo, Filip Petrusev, Benjamin Bentil and others who can score in bunches. As for Valencia, they are going to be without Kyle Alexander and Klemen Prepelic.

In this stage of the season, motivation is the thing that will decide the outcome of the game. It is very hard to play in Belgrade because their fans are crazy, and Valencia hasn't used to this situation in Spain. History is in favor of Crvena Zvezda as well because the Serbian team has won 3 out of the last 4 meetings which include 2 home games. If we look deeper, teams have met 6 times in Belgrade and Crvena Zvezda has won 4 matches.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

欧洲联赛常规赛只剩4轮了。周三晚上，兹维兹达将主场迎战瓦伦西亚。在30场比赛之后，Crvena Zvezda取得了13胜17负的成绩，排名第13位，而瓦伦西亚取得了14胜16负的成绩，排名第11位。在这场比赛中，我预测Crvena Zvezda会越过障碍。

Crvena Zvezda的处境非常艰难。截至目前，这支球队距离季后赛席位还有3场胜利，他们还有4场比赛。这支球队进入前8的可能性很小，因为他们不仅要赢，对手也要输。最后几轮比赛将是一场荣誉之战，而Crvena Zvezda在所有比赛中都取得了2连胜。塞尔维亚队在过去的4场欧洲联赛中只赢了2场，但两场胜利都是在主场，对手是阿纳多卢埃菲斯和巴斯科尼亚。Crvena Zvezda只允许球队场均得分78.2分，排名第五。

瓦伦西亚也不太可能进入前8。在剩下的4场比赛中，瓦伦西亚必须对阵兹韦兹达、扎尔吉利斯、维尔图斯和巴塞罗那。最近，西班牙队表现不佳，因为他们在过去的6场比赛中只赢了1场。如果我们看看他们的客场战绩，球队有6胜8负，但3胜是对阵联赛中最差的球队之一:帕纳辛奈科斯(第17名)，阿尔巴(第15名)和阿斯维尔(第14名)。瓦伦西亚在防守上很挣扎，他们场均失分85.7分，这是本赛季第三糟糕的结果。瓦伦西亚还允许对手以59%的命中率射门，这是比赛中第三差的结果。

看起来兹维兹达将失去卢卡·维尔多萨和内马尼亚·内多维奇。是的，他们都是重要的球员，但是兹韦兹达还有其他家喻户晓的名字，比如法昆多·坎帕佐，菲利普·彼得鲁塞夫，本杰明·本蒂尔和其他一些可以进球的人。至于瓦伦西亚，他们将失去凯尔·亚历山大和克莱门·普雷佩利奇。

在赛季的这个阶段，动力是决定比赛结果的因素。在贝尔格莱德踢球非常困难，因为他们的球迷都疯了，瓦伦西亚还不习惯在西班牙的这种情况。历史也对茨韦兹达有利，因为塞尔维亚队在最近4次交锋中赢了3场，其中包括2场主场比赛。如果我们看得更深入，两支球队在贝尔格莱德交锋过6次，茨韦兹达赢了4场比赛。