Northern Ireland vs Finland

Northern Ireland welcome Finland for this EURO 2024 qualification Group H second round clash at Windsor Park in Belfast early Monday morning Beijing time. The other teams in this group are Denmark, who are massive favorites to win the group. However, the team that finishes in second place also earns a ticket to the tournament in the summer next year. I see my home country, Finland, as narrow favorites to take second place. Slovenia are the third-best team in the group based on my sophisticated analysis. The hosts FIFA ranking is 59th and this is definitely too high – I have them in the 70th place in my world power rating that reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible lineup. Finland, on the other hand, are in the 56th place which is a little too low.. I have them in the 49th place in the power rating. Yes, there have been quite a few changes in the team since the EURO 2020 tournament which was played in the summer of 2021. Long-term key defensive players Paulus Arajuuri, Tim Sparv and Joona Toivio have quit in the national team which is a blow for Finland's defense. However, there are many new talented players in the squad overall. Antman is expected to be the next Finnish star and has a fine career ahead of him unless injuries hinder him. The Finns lost in Copenhagen in the opening round 1-3. Denmark, the semi-finalists from EURO 2020 were massive favorites in the betting market priced around 1.40 to take all three points. They recorded 2.67 in expected goals – the Finns' number was also decent - 1.12. The Finns were missing some important players in this match but the line up in Belfast should be a little better – Rasmus Schuller is expected to return and is a more important player than most football journalists and the betting market seem to believe.

Finland did not settle for only defending in Copenhagen and tried to play even surprisingly aggressive football – especially in the second half when they were trailing 0-1. They did manage to make it 1-1 in the 53th minute, Antman netted a beautiful goal assisted by Teemu Pukki who has scored a lot of goals even in the English Premier League for Norwich in the past. However, the ultra-promising Danish youngster Hojlund scored all three goals for the hosts. The 2-1 goal was scored in the 82th minute. Northern Ireland beat San Marino, clearly the worst national team in the world, 2-0 away from home in the first round. It was not a good performance at all. The visitors recorded just 1.67 in xG – the hosts' number was 0.05. Finland have an edge in all areas of the game here  - especially offensively. The bookies see the hosts as solid favorites and offer them odds of around 2.40 to win. Yes, the home advantage is pretty big and taking this factor into account I see this game as a 50-50% clash. The hosts' offense has been very lame for a long time against top-70 countries and many goals are not expected here. N. Ireland do have a decent defense..However, they have last beaten a team of Finland's caliber (Bosnia & Herzegovina) in October 2020..