The World Cup Bronze medallists begin their European Championship qualification campaign against Wales at home this weekend. Croatia arrives on the back of a great World Cup tournament in Qatar while Wales weren't so great last time out. My recommended betting pick in this game is a home win for Croatia and it's quite an easy one with value. Here's why you should bet on the Croats to win;

[1] Going by the previous world cup, Croatia is easily a top three team in the World and you shouldn't have doubts about them beating Wales. The Croatian National team knocked out the almighty Brazil a few months ago and they beat other big teams in the space of a year. With the rise of attacking talents like Mislav Orsic and Bruno Petkovic and the already experienced midfield, Croatia is now one of the biggest football powerhouses in European football. Wales is losing a lot of big stars to both retirement and injuries. Gareth Bale who has been Wales' best player for a long time is retiring from international football and this further weakens the team. Croatia is way better and they should have very little to no problems navigating their way to a win against Wales.

[2] Wales and Croatia had been very close in recent years but the gap has increased and you can see it in their performances. In over 15 games last year, Croatia lost only twice against Austria and Argentina and they have improved since then, beating Morocco to clinch the bronze medal in Qatar. Wales played a total of 12 games last year and they could only come out with two victories which is a very poor return among European teams. Zlatko Dalic's team would be very confident against a Welsh team that hasn't beaten them in four games. I think this game ends in an easy win for Croatia and you shouldn't miss the good value from the bookmakers here.

Croatia has progressed to the knockouts in all their last three big tournaments and I'm expecting them to do the same here. A win at home for the Croats is worth betting on.