Gillingham VS Carlisle United

Gillingham and Carlisle lock horns in this League Two round 38 battle at Priestfield Stadium late Saturday evening Beijing time. This is the fourth-highest level of English football and is undoubtedly the best third tier in the world. There are not many individually skilled players in this league but most teams play pretty straightforward football without too modern tactics – fighting for every ball is very important and physically the league is demanding. Us football bettors and fans can expect a somewhat good-level and entertaining match here between these two teams by League Two standards. I must disagree with the biggest, often somewhat sharp bookmakers that accept the biggest bets from customers. These bookies see Carlisle as solid favorites offering them odds of around 2.40 to take all three points. Based on my sophisticated in-depth analysis – with the expected lineups – there is no favorite in this game – it is a coin toss in my opinion. My fans and I only need Gillingham to take one point here to make a profit with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap bet on them. The visitors do, of course, have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game, but much more narrow than the bookies seem to believe. In terms of offensive quality the difference in class in their favor is bigger than in terms of defensive quality. Gillingham have had a disappointing season so far but have potential for much better. They have taken 41 points so far but their number of expected points (xPTS) is much higher! They have improved their level of football significantly this year compared to the autumn of 2022. They have lost just one of their most recent five games. Carlisle, on the other hand, have been surprisingly strong this season. I have raised their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class many times as the season has progressed. Even so, they have now, one could say ”finally” become too hot on the betting market. I was not impressed by their performance on the 21 of this month away from home against Bradford – especially offensively. They only recorded 0.53 in expected goals (xG). No goals were scored and both teams recorded just one shot on goal..

According to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Carlisle's players have a total market value of just 1.90 million euros. As I have mentioned many times in the past, market values are a good indicator on a team's level on the pitch but can also sometimes be misleading! This is the case with Carlisle who play much better than the list of players would suggest.. I would set the number a lot higher - at around 4.6-4.7 million! The hosts' players have a total market value of 4.48 million which is more or less correct! They would earn much more respect on the betting market. The total market is a relatively good indicator of a team's level in real action on the pitch.. Even taking into account that fact that Carlisle are much better than the 1.90 million would reflect we must remember that in fact they do not have that much more quality in their squad! The football (player) market is, after all, a global one.. The sharp bookmakers, football journalists/analysts and particularly professional football bettors pay increasingly more attention to teams' total market values nowadays.. However, if two players are equally capable and one of them is 25 years old and the other one is 35, the younger one is, of course, much more valuable.. For example, World Champion Leo Messi or Barcelona's Polish super star Robert Lewandowski do not have even close to the biggest current market value despite being top-8 players in the world! Furthermore, for example super-promising Englishman Jude Bellingham, just 19 years old, has a significantly higher market value than the legendary super stars Messi or Lewadowski at the moment..

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吉林厄姆和卡莱尔在北京时间周六晚些时候在普里斯特菲尔德球场进行的英乙第38轮比赛中对峙。这是英格兰足球的第四高水平，毫无疑问是世界上最好的三级联赛。在这个联赛中，拥有个人技术的球员并不多，但大多数球队踢的都是非常简单的足球，没有太现代的战术——争夺每一个球是非常重要的，联赛对身体的要求很高。根据英乙联赛的标准，美国球迷和球迷可以期待这两支球队在这里进行一场高水平和有趣的比赛。我必须不同意那些规模最大、往往有些精明的博彩公司接受客户最大的赌注。这些博彩公司认为卡莱尔是最受欢迎的，为他们提供了约2.40的赔率，以获得全部三分。根据我的复杂深入的分析，在预期的阵容中，这场比赛没有最受欢迎的球队，在我看来，这就像抛硬币一样。我的球迷和我只需要Gillingham拿一分，就可以用推荐的0.5个进球的赔率来赚钱。客队当然在比赛的各个方面都比主队有优势，但比博彩公司认为的要狭窄得多。在进攻质量方面，他们在级别上的差距比防守质量上的差距更大。到目前为止，吉林汉姆本赛季的表现令人失望，但他们有潜力做得更好。到目前为止，他们已经获得了41分，但他们的期望点数(xPTS)要高得多!与2022年秋季相比，他们今年的足球水平有了显著提高。他们在最近的五场比赛中只输了一场。另一方面，卡莱尔本赛季的表现出人意料的强劲。随着赛季的发展，我已经多次提高了他们的实力等级，以反映球队的纯粹水平。即便如此，他们现在可以说“终于”在博彩市场上变得太热了。我对他们这个月21日客场对阵布拉德福德的表现并不满意——尤其是在进攻端的表现。他们的预期目标(xG)仅为0.53。双方均未进球，两队仅射正一次。

根据一家非常著名和受人尊敬的德国网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，卡莱尔球员的总市值只有190万欧元。正如我在过去多次提到的，市场价值是衡量一支球队在球场上水平的一个很好的指标，但有时也会被误导!这就是卡莱尔的情况，他的表现比球员名单上显示的要好得多。我会把这个数字定得更高——大约460万到470万!东道主球员的总市值为448万，这多少是正确的!他们会在博彩市场上赢得更多的尊重。总市场是衡量一支球队在球场上实际表现水平的一个相对较好的指标。即使考虑到卡莱尔比190万所反映的情况要好得多，我们也必须记住，事实上他们的阵容并没有那么高的质量!足球(球员)市场毕竟是全球性的。精明的博彩公司、足球记者/分析师，尤其是职业足球投注者，如今越来越关注球队的总市场价值。然而，如果两个球员能力相当，其中一个25岁，另一个35岁，那么年轻的球员当然更有价值。例如，世界冠军梅西或巴塞罗那的波兰超级球星罗伯特·莱万多夫斯基，尽管他们是世界排名前8的球员，但他们的市场价值甚至还没有接近最大的当前市场价值!此外，例如超级有前途的英国人裘德·贝灵汉，年仅19岁，目前的市场价值明显高于传奇巨星梅西或利瓦多夫斯基。