Peterborough VS Derby

Peterborough welcome Derby for this English League One round 38 battle at Weston Homes Stadium late Saturday evening Beijing time. This is the third-highest level of English football and is undoubtedly the best third tier in the world. There are a few surprisingly talented young players in this league but most teams play pretty straightforward football – fighting for every ball is very important and physically the league is a challenging one. Us football bettors and fans can expect a pretty good-level and entertaining match here between two strong teams by League One standards. I have strongly disagreed with the biggest, often pretty smart bookmakers that accept the biggest bets from customers. These bookies Derby as only very marginal favorites offering them odds of around 2.65-2.70 to leave the hosts empty-handed - at least at the time of writing this preview late Saturday evening Beijing time. However, I do expect Derby's odds to go down before the kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on the visitors! Based on my sophisticated in-depth analysis Derby – with the expected lineups - have a 43% chance of winning. My fans and I only need Derby not to lose this clash to make a profit with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap bet on them. They do undoubtedly have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game. In terms of offensive quality the difference in class in Derby's favor is pretty narrow though. In fact Peterborough have even scored more goals than the visitors in this league so far this season - 63 to be precise. However, in terms of expected goals (xG) the hosts would have deserved just 57.89 goals. Derby, on the other hand, have netted the ball 59 times but their xG is 60.21. Defensively Derby are much better - they have allowed just 37 goals. Their defense has a good structure and a lot of individual skill. I will not let the slightly worse defensive performances in their most recent three games fool me.

Derby are currently in the 5th place and do have a genuine chance of promotion to the Championship for next season. Teams who place 2-6th play in the Play Offs. Peterborough's defense is way too shaky, lacks structure and individual skill to finish in the top-6, I believe. They have allowed 47 goals – the same number as Cheltenham, currently in the 17th place! The hosts are in the 7th place with 60 points to their account but I have them only in the 11th place in my power rating that reflects the teams pure clas.s Their number of expected points (xPTS) is just 54.67. In their most recent match they beat a pretty lowly team, Lincoln, 3-0 away from home as solid favorites according to the betting market. The final score is misleading. Peterborough were slightly the better team in this game but only recorded 0.76 in xG. The hosts' number was 0.46 but recorded more goal attempts and dangerous attacks. Derby were very unlucky to lose to Fleetwood at home in their most recent match. Yes, they were far from their best level but still recorded 0.86 in xG, Fleetwood's number was just 0.45. This lame performance seems to affect the odds too much here..

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北京时间周六晚些时候，彼得伯勒在威斯顿主场迎来了这场英超第38轮的德比大战。这是英国足球的第三高水平，毫无疑问是世界上最好的第三梯队。在这个联赛中有一些令人惊讶的才华横溢的年轻球员，但大多数球队踢的都是非常直接的足球——争夺每一个球是非常重要的，身体上的竞争是一个具有挑战性的联赛。美国的足球投注者和球迷可以期待两支以英甲标准衡量的强队在这里进行一场相当高水平和有趣的比赛。我强烈反对那些规模最大、通常相当聪明的博彩公司接受客户最大的赌注。这些博彩公司的赔率在2.65-2.70之间，赔率非常低，让东道主空手而归——至少在北京时间周六晚些时候是这样。然而，我确实希望德比的赔率在开球前下降，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在客队身上!根据我的复杂深入的分析，德比在预期的阵容下，有43%的机会获胜。我的球迷和我只需要德比不输掉这场比赛，就可以通过推荐的+0.5个进球赔率来盈利。毫无疑问，他们在比赛的各个方面都比东道主有优势。在进攻质量方面，德比队在级别上的差距非常小。事实上，本赛季到目前为止，彼得伯勒甚至比客队进了更多的球——准确地说是63个。然而，在预期进球数(xG)方面，东道主只应得57.89个进球。另一方面，德比有59次进球，但他们的xG是60.21。德比的防守要好得多——他们只丢了37个球。他们的防守结构很好，个人技术也很好。我不会让他们最近三场比赛稍差的防守表现欺骗我。

德比目前排名第五，确实有真正的机会在下赛季升级到英冠。2-6名的队伍进入附加赛。彼得伯勒的防守太不稳定了，缺乏结构和个人技术，我认为他们无法进入前六。他们已经丢了47个球——和切尔滕纳姆一样，目前排名第17位!东道主以60分排名第七，但在我的实力评分中，他们只排在第11位，这反映了这支球队的纯粹等级。他们的期望值(xPTS)只有54.67分。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场以3-0击败了实力相当弱的林肯队，根据博彩市场的预测，他们是最受欢迎的球队。最终的分数具有误导性。彼得伯勒在这场比赛中表现稍好，但xG仅为0.76。东道主的数字是0.46，但记录了更多的进球尝试和危险的攻击。德比在最近的一场比赛中非常不幸地在主场输给了弗利特伍德。是的，他们离最好的水平还很远，但仍然记录了0.86的xG，弗利特伍德的数字只有0.45。这种蹩脚的表现似乎对赔率影响太大了。