Italy and England start their quest for Euro 2024 qualification with this match in Naples. The Italians are looking to record consecutive wins over the Three Lions for the first time since March 2002.

The last time these two nations met in an international game was in the UEFA Nations League in September 2022, where they played out a low-quality affair in the San Siro, Milan.

Italy prevailed 1-0 despite attempting just three shots on target and posting an xG of 0.49, but it was toothless England that again went home without a victory. Then Sassuolo forward Giacomo Raspadori scored the only goal of the game – his fourth for the senior Italian side.

This 1-0 defeat saw England stretch their scoreless run to three games, which was their longest run in international football since November 2000. At the end of this match, the Three Lions had gone 495 minutes without a single goal in open play. In fact, at the full-time whistle, England still hadn’t scored a non-penalty goal in the 2022-23 edition of the UEFA Nations League – the only other team to suffer that feat were UEFA minnows San Marino.

This will be England’s first match since their 2022 FIFA World Cup exit to France at the quarter-final stage. Overall in 2022, England lost four of their 13 internationals – their most losses in a calendar year since 2018 (also four, but from 17 games).

England haven’t won any of their last three away internationals, with their 1-0 defeat to Italy in Milan back in September 2022 the third in this run after a 1-1 draw in Germany and a 1-0 defeat in Hungary, all in the UEFA Nations League. England haven’t gone four successive away internationals without a win since June 2017.

Southgate will have to do something he’s never done before, however – beat Italy. The England manager has faced the Italians four times but drawn three and lost once, with one of those draws ending in a penalty shootout loss in the Euro 2020 final at Wembley.

Italy failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar following a shock play-off defeat to North Macedonia in March 2022, so their most recent internationals came in friendlies against Albania (3-1 win) and Austria (2-0 loss).

Italy have won their last 14 European Championship qualifiers, a run stretching back to September 2015. They have lost none of their last 40 Euros qualifiers (W34 D6) since a 3-1 away defeat to France in September 2006. On home soil, they haven’t lost a qualifier since September 1999 against Denmark and are unbeaten in 25 games since (W21 D4).

Overall, Italy have lost just one of their last 31 home internationals (W17 D13 L1), with that defeat coming in that shock World Cup play-off defeat to North Macedonia in Palermo.

With Italy possessing plenty of talented ball-playing midfielders, England will need a central midfield figure to take control of the game. In Jude Bellingham, they could have the ideal candidate for that role, but will be one top player alone against all the strong italian midfield.

I believe we’ll see a strong performance by Italy and should be able to at least avoid the defeat here. This is a total 50-50 game so undoubtedly the right bet is the double chance.

意大利和英格兰在那不勒斯的这场比赛开始了他们对 2024 年欧洲杯资格的追求。意大利人希望自 2002 年 3 月以来首次连续战胜三狮军团。

这两个国家上一次在国际比赛中相遇是在 2022 年 9 月的欧洲国家联赛中，当时他们在米兰圣西罗踢出了一场低质量的比赛。

意大利队以 1-0 获胜，尽管他只尝试了 3 次射正并且 xG 为 0.49，但是没有牙齿的英格兰队再次没有取得胜利就回家了。然后 Sassuolo 前锋 Giacomo Raspadori 打进了比赛的唯一进球——这是他在意大利高级球队的第四个进球。

这场 1-0 的失利让英格兰队将他们的连续三场比赛没有进球，这是自 2000 年 11 月以来他们在国际足球比赛中最长的连续比赛。在这场比赛结束时，三狮军团已经有 495 分钟在公开赛中没有进球。事实上，终场哨响时，英格兰仍未打进一粒非点球进球。2022-23 赛季的欧洲国家联赛——唯一遭受这一壮举的另一支球队是欧洲足联小鱼队圣马力诺。

这将是英格兰自 2022 年 FIFA 世界杯四分之一决赛阶段退出法国以来的第一场比赛。总体而言，在 2022 年，英格兰输掉了 13 场国际比赛中的 4 场——这是自 2018 年以来历年输球最多的一次（也是 4 场，但来自 17 场比赛）。

英格兰在过去的三场客场国际比赛中都没有赢过任何一场，他们在 2022 年 9 月在米兰以 1-0 负于意大利，这是继德国 1-1 战平和匈牙利 1-0 失利之后的第三场比赛在欧洲国家联赛中。自 2017 年 6 月以来，英格兰还没有连续四次客场国际比赛没有获胜。

然而，索斯盖特将不得不做一些他以前从未做过的事情——击败意大利。这位英格兰主帅四次面对意大利队，但三平一负，其中一场平局以在温布利举行的 2020 年欧洲杯决赛点球大战失利告终。

意大利未能获得 2022 年的参赛资格在 2022 年 3 月附加赛惨败北马其顿之后，卡塔尔世界杯在卡塔尔举行，因此他们最近的国际比赛是在友谊赛中对阵阿尔巴尼亚（3-1 胜）和奥地利（2-0 负）。

意大利赢得了最近 14 场欧洲杯预选赛，这可以追溯到 2015 年 9 月。自从 2006 年 9 月 3-1 客场输给法国以来，他们在最近 40 场欧洲杯预选赛（34 胜 6 负）中没有输过一场。在主场，他们自从 1999 年 9 月对阵丹麦的预选赛以来，他们还没有输过一场比赛，并且自那以后的 25 场比赛中保持不败（W21 D4）。

总的来说，意大利在过去的 31 场主场国际比赛中只输了一场（17 胜 13 负 1 负），那场失利是在巴勒莫的世界杯附加赛中输给了北马其顿。

由于意大利拥有大量有球天赋的中场球员，英格兰需要一名中场球员来掌控比赛。在 Jude Bellingham，他们可能是这个角色的理想人选，但在对抗所有强大的意大利人时，他们将成为一名顶级球员中场。

我相信我们会看到意大利的强势表现，至少应该能够避免在这里失利。这是一场五五开 的比赛，所以毫无疑问，主队不败是很好的机会。