Kazakhstan VS Slovenia

Kazakhstan welcome Slovenia for this EURO 2024 Qualification battle at Astana Arena in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, late Thursday evening Beijing time. This is the first round of qualification but the stakes are high as every match is very important in this group with a total of six teams. Denmark are – despite being very disappointing in the World Cup in Qatar - massive favorites to win the group. The team which finishes in second place does also earn a ticket and Finland are, in my opinion, narrow favorites for this place but surely Slovenia, Northern Ireland and even Kazakhstan are in the fight. Do not get me wrong – Kazakhstan making it to top-2 in this group would be quite a big surprise but they are definitely better than the betting market seems to estimate! Their FIFA ranking is 115th which is too low – I would have them in the 79th place in the world ranking. The home advantage is often even bigger than the bookmakers – or ,many football countries believe.. Kazakhstan usually heavily rely on home games and the country does have a surprisingly good football culture. Kazakhstan is not, in fact, an European country at all and is located in central Asia. For the Slovenians the trip to Astana is pretty long and energy-consuming.. The Kazakhs have won three of their latest home games. In front of their fans they have much more confidence to keep the ball, pass it from play to player and sometimes even press the opponents defence than away from home where they are usually quite passive – even sometimes even cautious. In their most recent home game they defeated Belarus 2-1 after having 52% and recording more shots on goal, scoring attempts, total passes, completed passes, and attacks - 99-88. Slovenia are, of course, a stronger team than Belarus though. In a home game before the match against Belarus they beat Slovakia, a team that are clearly better than slovenia, 2-1! They did unarguably have some luck on their side in this clash but defended in a very structured way and showed great fighting spirit! Slovakia are in the 54th place in FIFA ranking – Slovenia currently occupy the 62th place but In my opinion they should be in 72-74th place! Furthermore, early in the summer of 2022 they beat Azerbaijan 2-0 at home as clear underdogs according to the bookies – priced around 3.20 to win. This match was yet another example of the betting market underestimating Kazakhstan!

The hosts have lost two of their most recent matches away from home but these losses do not worry me too much. They had their chances in both games. On the 19th of November 2022 United Arab Emirates beat them 2-1 and three days earlier Uzbekistan defeated the Kazakhs 2-0. Kazakhstan were clear underdogs in both matches on the betting market. They were friendly games and most of my fans probably remember by now that I do not give friendlies too much emphasis as the motivation, especially for the away team, is often far from 100% and both teams' coaches usually heavily rotate the squad.. Slovenia beat Montenegro 1-0 at home and Romania 2-1 away from home last November but before this they only won 1/8 games! They did face some pretty good teams, too, in these eight matches but the record is still disappointing! My fans and I have done very well betting on international football, lastly the World Cup 2002, and we will go for more profit here, placing a bet on the hosts to take at least a draw. I must strongly disagree with the biggest, often pretty smart bookmakers that offer the largest stake limits. These bookies see Slovenia as solid favorites offering them odds of around 1.90 to leave the hosts home empty-handed - at least at the time of writing this preview late Wednesday evening Beijing time. However, I do expect Kazakhstan's odds to go down before the match starts as clever money is expected to pile up on the hosts! Based on my sophisticated in-depth analysis Slovenia – with the expected lineups - have a 42% chance of winning. They do, of course, have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game. Defensively the edge is smaller than offensively. I expect a pretty defensive match here, especially in the first half, and the match has a slightly lower goal expectancy than the bookies estimate.

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北京时间周四晚间，在哈萨克斯坦首都阿斯塔纳的阿斯塔纳竞技场，哈萨克斯坦欢迎斯洛文尼亚参加2024年欧洲杯预选赛。这是小组赛的第一轮，但在这个总共有6支球队的小组中，每一场比赛都非常重要。尽管在卡塔尔世界杯上表现令人失望，丹麦队仍是小组第一的大热门。获得第二名的球队也会获得一张门票，在我看来，芬兰队是最有希望获得这一席位的球队，但斯洛文尼亚、北爱尔兰甚至哈萨克斯坦都在争夺中。不要误解我的意思，哈萨克斯坦能进入小组前2将是一个相当大的惊喜，但他们肯定比博彩市场估计的要好!他们的国际足联排名是115位，这太低了——我认为他们的世界排名是79位。主场优势往往比博彩公司更大——或者，许多足球国家相信。哈萨克斯坦通常严重依赖主场比赛，该国确实有令人惊讶的良好足球文化。事实上，哈萨克斯坦根本不是一个欧洲国家，它位于中亚。对于斯洛文尼亚人来说，前往阿斯塔纳的旅程是相当漫长和消耗能源的。哈萨克队在最近的主场比赛中赢了三场。在球迷面前，他们更有信心控球，把球从一个球员传给另一个球员，有时甚至压住对手的防线，而在主场，他们通常很被动，有时甚至很谨慎。在最近的一场主场比赛中，他们以99比88的比分2-1击败了白俄罗斯，他们的射门率为52%，射门次数、射门次数、传球次数、完成传球次数和进攻次数都比白俄罗斯多。当然，斯洛文尼亚比白俄罗斯更强。在与白俄罗斯比赛前的一场主场比赛中，他们以2比1击败了明显比斯洛文尼亚强的斯洛伐克队!毫无疑问，他们在这场比赛中确实有一些运气，但他们的防守非常有条理，表现出了伟大的战斗精神!斯洛伐克在国际足联排名第54位，斯洛文尼亚目前占据第62位，但在我看来，他们应该在72-74位!此外，在2022年初夏，他们在主场以2-0击败了阿塞拜疆，根据博彩公司的说法，他们显然处于下风，赢球的价格约为3.20欧元。这场比赛是博彩市场低估哈萨克斯坦的又一个例子!

东道主最近在客场输掉了两场比赛，但我并不担心这些输球。两场比赛他们都有机会。2022年11月19日，阿联酋2-1击败了他们，三天前乌兹别克斯坦2-0击败了哈萨克斯坦。哈萨克队在两场比赛中都明显处于下风。它们是友谊赛，我的大多数球迷现在可能还记得，我不太重视友谊赛，因为动力，尤其是对客场球队来说，往往不是100%，两队的教练通常都在轮换阵容。去年11月，斯洛文尼亚主场1-0击败黑山，客场2-1击败罗马尼亚，但在此之前，他们只赢了1/8场比赛!在这八场比赛中，他们也遇到了一些相当不错的球队，但战绩仍然令人失望!我和我的球迷在国际足球比赛上赌得很好，最后赌的是2002年世界杯，我们将在这里赌得更多，赌东道主至少能打平。我必须强烈反对那些规模最大、往往相当聪明的博彩公司开出最大的赌注上限。这些博彩公司认为斯洛文尼亚是夺冠大热门，他们开出了1.90左右的赔率，让东道主空手而归——至少在北京时间周三晚些时候是这样。然而，我确实认为哈萨克斯坦的赔率在比赛开始前会下降，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在东道主身上!根据我复杂深入的分析，斯洛文尼亚队在预期的阵容下，有42%的机会获胜。当然，他们在比赛的各个方面都比东道主有优势。防守端的优势比进攻端的小。我认为这将是一场相当防守的比赛，尤其是在上半场，这场比赛的进球预期比博彩公司的估计略低。