Walsall VS Bradford

Walsall host Bradford for this English League Two round 29 battle at Bescot Stadium early Wednesday morning Beijing time. This is the fourth-highest level of English football and is certainly the best fourth tier in the world. However, in reality the hosts have played 32 matches and Bradfors have entered the pitch 33 times in this league so far this season. As most of my fans already probably know, I will not let the league table fool me here. Walsall currently occupy the 14th place in the standings in this league with a total of 24 clubs. They have taken 43 points so far. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they have had some bad luck this season. Their number of xPTS is 47.99. They have netted the ball 35 times in this league so far this season but their number of expected goals (xG) is just 39.33. I have them only in 10th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. They are a much better team than the list of players or the squad's market value according to a well-known and respected German website Transfermarkt.com would suggest. They play well as a team, almost always fight hard and according to my sources also have an awesome team spirit. I also trust their undervalued coach to develop their game further. Their defense has a great structure – by League Two standards at least – the midfielders actively take part in defending and their defenders make very few stupid mistakes. They have allowed just 29 goals which is a much smaller number than for example Carlisle, currently in second place in the league table have conceded! Bradford have, too, have allowed 29 goals but I see the hosts' defense as slightly better ahead of this game, Bradford's expected number of goals allowed is 32.21. They have over-performed this season and I do not expect them to finish in the top-7. At the moment they are in 5th place and have, as a result, become too hot on the betting market. At least 6-7 of their regular starters have played above their normal level in most games so far this season...Their number of xPTS is much lower than the actual number – 57 to be precise. Not that much in terms of their pure class has really changed from last season when the visitors were marginally better but – once again – were lucky in terms of xPTS.

I have to disagree with the biggest, often somewhat smart bookmakers that accept the biggest bets from customers. These bookies see the visitors as favorites offering them odds of around 2.60 to take all three points. However, I recommend my fans and myself to take the safer option which is the Walsall +0.5 goals handicap option with a very big chance of winning. The visitors being the favorites to be favorites impossible to justify with today's expected lineups. In my opinion the hosts are not very clear but still solid favorites. The goal expectancy here is very low by League Two standards and I see it as even lower than the betting market does. Both teams will probably play pretty defensive, organized football here. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 70%. The chance for a draw is 33% and this result would suit my fans and me! Only one of the hosts' and none of Bradford's most recent five games have gone over the 2.5 total line! The hosts have lost just one of their most recent five games. They did lose their most recent game three days ago though. The opponent at home was Barrow and the final score 0-1 is not really justified.. Walsall had 6i% ball possession and recorded many more scoring attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks (128-75) and dangerous attacks. Furthermore, on the 21 of February they would have deserved a win at home over Crewe but it was a goalless draw. Walsall recorded 1.12 in (xG) and defended super-well allowing the visitors just 0.29 in xG. Bradford have taken many wins lately but have been lucky in several games in February and January.