Cheltenham VS Lincoln

Cheltenham welcome Lincoln for this English League Two round 22 clash at Whaddon Road early Wednesday morning Beijing time. This is the fourt-highest level of English football and is certainly the best fourth tier on the planet. However, in reality Cheltenham have played 34 matches and Lincoln have entered the pitch 33 times in this league so far this season. We should not let the league table fool us here. Lincoln currently occupy the 11th place in the standings. They have grabbed 44 points so far. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they have had luck on their side this season. Their number of xPTS is just 39.35. They have netted the ball 32 times in this league so far this season but their number of expected goals is just 28.33. I have them only in the 17th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. Not that much in terms of their pure class has really changed from last season when they finished in 17th place with just 52 points to their account and had a pretty bad score difference. Furthermore, they have won just one of their most recent five games. They had some luck on their side in their most recent match when they beat Oxford United at home 1-0. The visitors had 63% ball possession and recorded more shots on goal, scoring attempts (15-8), total passes, completed passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 61-25.

 I have to disagree with the biggest, often relatively smart bookmakers that accept the biggest bets from customers. These bookies see the hosts as only marginal favorites offering them odds of around 2.70. However, we will take the safer option which is the Cheltenham +0.5 goals handicap option with a very high chance of winning. The almost balanced odds are impossible to justify with today's expected lineups. In my opinion Cheltenham are solid favorites. Before the game against Oxford Lincoln were also lucky to take a point at home as MK Dons were the better team on the pitch. They had 67% ball possession and recorded more shots on goals, total passes, completed passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks. Dons also created more in xG – 0.78-0.45. Cheltenham, on the other hand, have had a disappointing season but can and surely will improve in all areas of the game! Defense has been a problem for them this season. They beat Fleetwood 1-0 at home three days ago recording much more in xG 1.45-0.67 and defended very well. The win is surely a boost for their confidence. They finished higher up in the standings last season than the visitors - 15th.