In my opinion Derby have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

First match of the season between both teams finished with Plymouth win, but that wasn't deserved result as they had lower expected goals scored number than Derby.

Both teams fighting to get promotion in Championship until end of the season. Despite higher position in league table, Plymouth not playing better than Derby. Plymouth scored 61 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score only 40.4 (!!!). On the other hand Derby scored 55 (50.3 expected goals scored). Guests are also better at the back - according to the expected goals conceded model their defensive formation is top5 in league, Plymouth is not even in top half of the table..

Derby coming here in better form as they didn't lost in 4 of last 5 matches. Plymouth won only once in last 4 matches in all competitions.

Derby coming here with very strong line up, only midfielder Max Bird is unavailable. On the other hand Plymouth is without first goalkeeper Cooper, key defender Scarr and key midfielder Randell (third-best player in current season according to the ratings).

On those circumstances I see excellent value on away side.

在我看来，德比郡很有机会在今天的比赛中至少拿下一分。

两支球队本赛季的第一场比赛以普利茅斯获胜告终，但这不是应得的结果，因为他们的预期进球数低于德比郡。

两支球队都在争夺冠军，直到赛季结束。尽管在联赛中排名较高，但普利茅斯的表现并不比德比更好。普利茅斯进了 61 个球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该只进 40.4 个球（！！！）。另一方面，德比郡打进了 55 球（预期进球数为 50.3）。客队的后防线也更好——根据预期失球模型，他们的防守阵型在联赛中排名前 5，普利茅斯甚至不在积分榜的上半区。

德比以更好的状态来到这里，因为他们在最近 5 场比赛中有 4 场没有输球。普利茅斯近4场各项赛事只赢过1场。

德比以非常强大的阵容来到这里，只有中场球员马克斯伯德无法上场。在另一方面，普利茅斯缺少第一门将库珀、主力后卫斯卡尔和主力中场兰德尔（本赛季收视率第三好的球员）。

在这种情况下，我认为客场不败具有极佳的价值。