Jong Utrecht vs Roda

Jong Utrecht welcome Roda for this Dutch Eerste Divisie round 26 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch early Tuesday morning Beijing time. I cannot agree with the biggest, often somewhat smart bookmakers that offer the largest betting limits.These bookies see Roda as solid  favorites offering them odds of around 2.35-2.40 to travel home with all three points in the pocket.. With today's expected lineups I see them only as marginal favorites! A draw would be enough and the probability of this result is higher than the bookies think – 28%. This result would be enough for my fans and me to win with the recommended +0.5 handicaps on Jong Utrecht. I see the match as more low-scoring than the bookmakers do. My probability estimation for under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 51%. None of the visitors' latest four games have had over 2.5 goals scored. They are often pretty defensive, even cautious away from home.. Jong Utrecht have had quite a lot of defensive problems this season and have allowed 45 goals in this league so far this season. They have, however, been pretty solid defensively at home recently. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is, however, much lower – 39.97 to be precise. Yes, they beat Breda 4-1 on the 20th of February but are, in all honesty, not very strong offensively. They have netted the ball 26 goals so far in this league. Their season has been a disappointment so far but they still fight hard and have potential to improve in all areas of the game.

Roda, too,  have been disappointing this season and are currently in 12th place in the standings with 34 points to their account. Last season they did finish in fifth place and should have potential to climb up the standings a bit but the bookmakers definitely give too much emphasis to this potential! They have now lost four of their latest five games and were pretty poor in their most recent games! They deservedly lost to Almere at home in their latest match. The visitors created more shots on goal and scoring attempts and traveled home with a 2-0 win. Roda do have in all areas of the game but the difference between the teams is much smaller than most football fans and the betting market seem to believe and the home advantage is not massive but still there.. Roda are clearly low in confidence and according to my sources do not have a very good team spirit at the moment.. Jong Utrecht lost to Helmond in their most recent game 0-2 away from home but did have their chances. They recorded 51% ball possession and seven scoring attempts. They also recorded more total passes, completed passes and attacks. They could easily have taken a point!