In short, I see the most likely results here at 3-0, the probability for AIK to win by asian handicap -1.5 is 54 %.

Why so?

It is a cup game in a group phase, AIK are a top team in the country with a few other Stockholm teams and Malmö and Häcken, Varberg did survive the Allsvenskan last season rather narrowly, and they will be fighting against relegation also this season.

In the cup so far AIK have drawn 1-1 with Västerås at home and won Östersund 0-3 away, Varberg on the other hand won over Östersund by 1-0, lost to Västerås by 0-2. Both at home, now they travel to Stockholm.

During the friendly season AIK faced good decent teams like Copenhagen, Bröndby and Brenford away and it tells a lot about their ambitions, Varberg opponents have local rivals vs lower leagues, and still the results are worrying to see!

During the winter AIK have sold some of their best players abroad and gained roughly 15 million eur from the sales, there is new personnel in the management who want to have and improve younger and cheaper player and make AIK a hungry and attacking team again. They still have a squad worth of 15 million, compared to Varbergs 6 million, but supposedly there is both money to be spent, and more value in the squad than the numbers show.

Today the match is sold out, a number of absentees at AIK but there are the biggest remaining names Durmaz, Guidetti, Fischer, Hussein,Otieno available, and also new signing the winger Rui Modesto who has perhaps the leagues top winger last season in Finland Premier league.

Varberg will field two late signings today, Yassine El Ouatki from PSG organization och centerback Niklas Dahlström from Jönköping, but the list of absentees is rather long as Oliver Alfonsi, Oliver Stanisic, Oliver Silverholt, Filipe Sissé, Vilela Pussick, Jon Birkfeldt and Maxime Sainte are out.

3-0

简而言之，我认为这里最有可能的结果是 3-0，索尔纳打穿的概率为 54%。 为什么这样？

这是一场小组赛阶段的杯赛，索尔纳与其他几支斯德哥尔摩球队以及马尔默和哈肯都是国内顶级球队，瓦尔贝里上赛季以相当微弱的优势从Allsvenskan中脱颖而出，他们也将在本赛季为保级而战。

到目前为止，索尔纳在杯赛中主场1-1战平韦斯特罗斯，客场0-3战胜厄斯特松德，而瓦尔贝里1-0战胜厄斯特松德，0-2负于韦斯特罗斯。两人都在家，现在他们前往斯德哥尔摩。

在友谊赛中，索尔纳客场面对像哥本哈根、布伦比和布伦福德这样的优秀球队，这充分说明了他们的野心，瓦尔贝里的对手有本地对手和低级别联赛，但结果仍然令人担忧！

在冬季，索尔纳将一些最好的球员卖到了国外，并从中获得了大约 1500 万欧元的收入，管理层中有新人想要拥有并提高更年轻、更便宜的球员，让索尔纳再次成为一支充满饥饿感和攻击力的球队。他们仍然拥有一支价值 1500 万的阵容，而瓦尔贝里则有 600 万，但据推测，他们既有钱可以花，也有比数字显示的更多的价值。

今天的比赛已经售罄，索尔纳也有一些缺席者，但还有 Durmaz、Guidetti、Fischer、Hussein、Otieno 等大牌可用，还有新签下的边锋 Rui Modesto，他可能是上赛季芬兰联赛的顶级边锋超级联赛。

瓦尔贝里今天将签下两名迟到的球员，来自大巴黎组织的 Yassine El Ouatki 和来自 Jönköping 的中后卫 Niklas Dahlström，但缺席名单相当长，奥利弗·阿方西、奥利弗·斯塔尼西奇、奥利弗·西尔弗霍尔特、菲利佩·西塞、维莱拉·普西克、乔恩·比克费尔特和马克西姆·圣特出局。

比分参考3-0