🚨 20/15 in my last Bundesliga2 🚨 德乙 不伦瑞克VS比勒费
2023-03-05

Przem

外籍分析师

德乙

03/05 20:30

已完赛

解读理由:

In my opinion Arminia have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Both teams fighting to avoid relegation at the end of the season and both teams coming for this game after 3 consecutive losses.

Why I believe Arminia have bigger chances?

In overall Arminia plays much better than their results shows. In current season they conceded 35 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede only 27.4 (only 3 teams in whole league have lower number!). On the other hand only two teams in whole league have lower expected goals scored number than Eintracht, also only two have higher expected goals conceded than Eintracht.

Arminia lost last 3 matches, but in each game had higher expected goals scored number than opponents. In addition to that in last two round they played against teams from top3. In 2023 Eintracht lost 4 of 5 matches and in those 4 matches they conceded more than one goal.

Arminia coming for this game without any big absences, we should see on the pitch all their key players. On the other hand Eintracht today will play without 5 important players: defenders Behrendt, Benkovic & Decarli and midfielders Henning & Wiebe. It's huge blow and should have very bad impact on their performance today.

On those circumstances double chance on away side looks like very good option to play.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

在我看来,阿米尼亚(比勒费)很有可能在今天的比赛中拿到至少一分。

两支球队都在为赛季末的保级而战,两支球队都在经历了三连败后迎来了本场比赛。

为什么我相信阿米尼亚的机会更大?

总的来说,阿米尼亚的表现比他们的结果要好得多。本赛季他们丢了35个球,但根据预期丢球模型,他们应该只丢了27.4个球(全联赛只有3支球队比他们少!)另一方面,整个联赛中只有两支球队的期望进球数低于德国队,也只有两支球队的期望失球数高于德国队。

阿米尼亚输掉了最近3场比赛,但在每场比赛中都比对手有更高的期望进球数。除此之外,在最近的两轮比赛中,他们对阵了来自前三的球队。在2023年的5场比赛中,法兰克福输掉了4场,在这4场比赛中,他们丢了不止一个球。

阿米尼亚在这场比赛中没有大的缺阵,我们应该在球场上看到他们所有的关键球员。另一方面,今天的法兰克福将没有5名重要球员:后卫贝伦特,本科维奇和德卡利,中场亨宁和韦贝。这是一个巨大的打击,应该会对他们今天的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。

在这种情况下,客场不败看起来是一个很好的选择。

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