Winterthur VS Young Boys

Winterthur welcome Young Boys for this Swiss Super League round 23 battle at Stadion Schützenwiese early Sunday morning Beijing time. This league is of mediocre level by European standards. We cannot expect a particularly entertaining game here as I expect the hosts to play very defensive, possibly even cautious football here. I am positive that their loyal and often pretty loud fans will understand this approach as the opponent is very strong. Indeed, Young Boys currently top the standings with 47 points. They have betted the ball a whopping times and have allowed 16 goals. There is no doubt about the fact that they have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game. They deserve to be clear favorites even away from home. I see them having a 55% chance to grab all three points. Even so, they have not been overly conving on the road in this league so far this season and have won just five of the 11 away games. They have a margin of 13 points to Servette, currently in second place. This means they will almost certainly win the championship.. However, they have been lucky in terms of expected points (xPTS) in this league so far this season. Their xPTS is 42.44. Bookies do respect them too much here.. Young Boys' number of expected goals (xG) is 45.66. Winterthur are the rock-bottom team at the moment in this league with a total of 10 clubs. They have taken 22 points but are, on the other hand, just five points behind a pretty big club, Basel, currently in 6th place. They have improved lately and have potential to avoid relegation. All we need them to do here, however, is not to lose by more than one goal's difference. The probability for this is 70%. 

The hosts are surely massively motivated here and even a point would probably satisfy their coach and the players. We must also remember that betting on a heavy favorite away from home with the -1.5 goals handicap, not to mention a bigger handicap, is almost never a good idea. There is long-term data from many football leagues to support this claim.The hosts have, in fact, been in pretty good form lately and seem to have more confidence now compared to the early season. They have lost just two of their most recent games. In their most recent game they were good against Servette away from home taking a point through a 1-1 draw! I liked the way they fought as a team and had a very good defensive structure. They were big underdogs in this game according to the betting market, priced around 5.40 to win. The strong hosts were only marginally better in this game despite 62% ball possession. Servette recorded 1.02 in xG – Winterthur's number was 0.91. Young Boys have not been quite at their best lately winning just two of their most recent matches. They have not suffered a defeat for a long time though. In their most recent game they beat Thun, a pretty small team that play in the second tier, 5-0 in a Swiss Cup game. Yes, they were the better team but the final score still does massively flatter them. 0-2 or 1-3 would have been a realistic final score.. Young Boys were very clear favorites in this game according to the bookies.