Aalborg VS Viborg

Aalborg welcome Viborg for this Danish Landspokal Cup quarter-final first leg clash at Aalborg Portland Park early Friday morning Beining time. Both teams play in the Superliga, the first tier of this very good football country. We should not be fooled by the standings too much! Aalborg are currently in 11th place in this league with a total of 12 clubs.They have taken just 14 points and have netted the ball just 17 times and have allowed 30 goals. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is significantly higher! Viborg, very surprisingly, are in the second place in the league table with 35 points in the pocket. I do not, however, rate them as a top-4 team by pure class. Their number of xPTS is 30.34. Yes, the hosts have been a big disappointment this season in the Superliga but Landspokal is a good chance for them to achieve something this season. I expect them to be slightly more motivated than Viborg here. I have, of course, as a result lowered their power rating which reflects the teams' pure class from my sophisticated in-depth analysis. However, it is pretty clear to anyone who follows Danish football that they have potential for much better. They can - and most probably will – improve in all areas of the game. Let's not forget that last season they finished in 5th place in the Championship Group with 45 points to their account! Viborg, on the other hand, played in the Relegation Group! Let's also remember some important financial numbers: According to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Aalborg's players have a total market value of over 14.55 million euros. In my opinion this is a bit too high though.. I would set the number at around 13.5 million.. In their most recent match they lost to a big club, FC Copenhagen, away from home 0-1. No they were not the better team but defended and fought pretty well. Copenhagen were very big favorites in this game - priced around 1.40 to win on the betting market. Before this they would have deserved at least a point but lost to Aarhus 0-1 at home despite recording more in expected goals (xG). The numbers were 0.56-0.45. 

The visitors' players have a total market value of much less than Aalborg's - 10.35 million to be precise. This is pretty low by Superliga standards.The total market value can, of course, sometimes be misleading but is still a relatively good indicator of a team's level in real action on the pitch.. The football (player) market is, after all, a global one.. The sharp bookmakers, football journalists/analysts and particularly professional football bettors pay increasingly more attention to teams' total market values these days.. However, if two players are equally capable and one of them is 25 years old and the other one is 35, the younger one is, of course, much more valuable.. For example, World Champion Leo Messi or Barcelona's Polish super star Robert Lewandowski do not have even close to the biggest current market value despite being top-8 players on the planet! Furthermore, for example super-promising Englishman Jude Bellingham, just 19 years old, has a significantly higher market value than the legendary super stars Messi or Lewadowski at the moment.. Viborg beat Horsens in their most recent match 3-0 away from home but this score is very misleading! Viborg only recorded marginally more in xG 0.65-0.49. Before this they were humiliated by Midtjylland at home! 0-4 was the final score. Viborg are only marginal favorites here and the wise bet is +0.5 goals on the hosts with a high chance of winning.