Zaglebie Lubin VS Miedz Legnica

Zablebie welcome Legnica for this Polish Ekstraklasa battle at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This league is of mediocre level by European standards but cannot expect a particularly high-level match even by Ekstraklasa standards. The stakes are high for both teams as they are having a difficult season and will probably have to struggle hard to avoid relegation. I expect a relatively defensive, possibly even cautious football from both teams here and see the match as more low-scoring than the betting market does. My probability for under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 62%. The low goal expectancy suits the recommended bet (+0.5 goals handicap option on Legnica) well. There is very little between the two teams. With today's expected line ups, I  must disagree with the bookies here! Indeed, the biggest, usually pretty sharp bookmakers with the largest stake limits see the hosts as solid favorites offering them odds of around 2.50 to send to visitors home empty-handed. The odds on Legnica have dropped substantially from the starting odds – completely understandably. Furthermore, I would not be surprised to see them come down even more before the kickoff. I will not let the standings fool me - as most of my fans know. Legnica are the rock-bottom team in the league table at the moment. They have just 18 points to their account. However, I want to highlight that in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved 24.58 points. I see them having a good chance to avoid relegation back to the second tier. The teams who finish 16-18th will have this grim situation.

Legnica have been in pretty good form lately and have lost just one of their latest five games. This loss came on the 5th of this month away from home against Lech Poznan, a very strong team. Legnica were heavy underdogs in this match – priced around 7.50 to win. Yes, the hosts were the better team but Legnica had their chances too! With some luck they could have taken a point. Lech Poznan recorded 18 scoring attempts – Legnica's number was also pretty high – 12 to be precise. In their most recent match they beat a pretty dangerous team, Wisla Plock, 2-1 at home. They only had 39% ball possession but did record mpre goal attempts (18-14), shots on target as well as more dangerous attacks. This match surely boosted their confidence ahead of this match! Zablegie have taken 23 points so far but I have a worse score difference than Legnica. I would not be at all surprised to see them relegate at the end of the season. They took a very lucky win in their most recent game beating Lech Poznan 2-1 away from home. This result probably affects the odds too much here.. Before this they lost two games in a row and were quite disappointing. I have not been very impressed by their performances on the pitch lately and I also think that their coach is overrated..