Verona VS Fiorentina

Verona welcome Fiorentina for this Italian Serie A round 24 battle at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This is the third-best league in the world but we cannot expect a particularly high-level match by Serie A standards. The stakes are high especially for Verona who are having a somewhat difficult season and will probably have to fight hard to avoid relegation. I expect pretty defensive, perhaps even cautious football from both teams here and see the match as more low-scoring than the betting market does. My probability for under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 63%. Indeed, none of the hosts's latest eight games have gone over the 2.5 goal line. Moreover, just one of Fiorentina's most recent six Serie A games has seen more than two goals. I also see the draw as a more probable result than the bookies do. This suits the recommended bet (+0.5 goals handicap on Verona) well. There is no doubt about the fact that Fiorentina are the better team by pure class. Even so. I cannot agree with the bookies here! Indeed, the biggest, often pretty sharp bookmakers with the largest stake limits see Fiorentina as solid favorites offering them odds of around 2.10 to travel home with all three points. I see them only as narrow favorites. They have been extremely disappointing in Serie A recently and have failed to win any of their latest six games in this league!

Fiorentina did, however, take two wins in the UEFA Conference League over Braga recently. These games were unarguably better performances than we have seen in Serie A lately but I was still not overly impressed by Fiorentina. Braga played below their normal level in both games. Especially in the first leg on the 16th of this month the final score (0-4) is very misleading. Yes. Fiorentina were the better team but recorded only 1.12 in expected goals (xG). Braga's xG was 0.48. In the second leg at home the 3-2 final score was more or less justified but Braga had clearly already lost hope in terms of qualifying.. In their most recent Serie A match Fiorentina played a somewhat disappointing 1-1 draw at home against Empoli. They were very clear favorites in this clash priced around 1.65 to win on the betting market. In the round 22 they once again struggled offensively and lost to Juventus 0-1 in Turin only recording two shots on Juventus' goal. They have dropped to 15th place in the standings and have 24 points in the pocket. This is just eight points more than Verona have taken. Fiorentina only have a moderate advantage both defensively and offensively. Verona, on the other hand, have been in good form lately losing just one of their latest five games – all Serie A matches and seem to be pretty high in confidence at the moment.They did lose their most recent match against Roma away from home but fought well and could – with some luck have taken a point. Even so, 1-0 was the final score. Verona had 54% ball possession but Roma did record more in xG – 0.78-0.51.

北京时间周二凌晨，维罗纳队在本特戈迪球场迎战佛罗伦萨队，参加意甲第 24 轮的比赛。这是世界上第三好的联赛，但我们不能指望以意甲标准进行一场特别高水平的比赛。赌注很高，尤其是对于维罗纳来说，他们的赛季有些艰难，可能不得不努力奋斗以避免降级。我希望这里的两支球队都有相当的防守，甚至可能是谨慎的足球，并且认为这场比赛的得分比博彩市场低。我总进球数低于 2.5 个的概率是 63%。事实上，东道主最近的八场比赛都没有超过 2.5 球门线。此外，佛罗伦萨最近的六场意甲比赛中，只有一场的进球数超过了两个。我也认为平局是比博彩公司更有可能的结果。这很适合推荐的投注（维罗纳+0.5 球让分）。毫无疑问，佛罗伦萨是纯粹的更好的球队班级。即使是这样。我不能同意这里的博彩公司！事实上，最大的、通常非常精明的博彩公司拥有最大的赌注限制，他们认为佛罗伦萨是最有希望的球队，为他们提供了大约 2.10 的赔率，让他们全取三分回家。我只将它们视为狭隘的最爱。他们最近在意甲的表现非常令人失望，最近六场联赛都没有取得胜利！

然而，佛罗伦萨最近在欧洲联盟联赛中击败布拉加取得了两场胜利。毫无疑问，这些比赛的表现比我们最近在意甲联赛中看到的要好，但佛罗伦萨仍然没有给我留下太深刻的印象。布拉加在两场比赛中的表现都低于正常水平。尤其是本月16日的首回合比赛，最终比分（0-4）极具误导性。是的。佛罗伦萨是更好的球队，但预期进球数 (xG) 仅为 1.12。布拉加的 xG 为 0.48。在主场的次回合比赛中，3-2 的最终比分或多或少是合理的，但布拉加显然已经失去了希望在排位赛方面.. 在他们最近的意甲比赛中，佛罗伦萨主场1-1战平恩波利，表现有些令人失望。在这场交锋中，他们是非常明显的夺冠热门，赔率约为 1.65，可以在博彩市场上取胜。第22轮，他们在进攻端再次举步维艰，在都灵以0-1负于尤文图斯，只打进了尤文图斯的两球。他们已经跌至积分榜第15位，积24分。这仅比维罗纳多 8 分。佛罗伦萨在防守和进攻上都只占中等优势。另一方面，维罗纳最近状态不错，最近五场比赛只输了一场——所有意甲比赛，而且目前似乎信心十足。他们最近在客场输给了罗马但是打得很好并且可以 - 运气好的话已经取得了一点。尽管如此，1-0 还是最终比分。维罗纳拥有 54% 的控球率，但罗马在 xG 方面的控球率更高——0.78-0.51。