Magallabes vs Cobresal

Magallanes welcome Cobresal for this Chilean Primera Division round 6 battle at Municipal de San Bernardo in San Bernardo early Monday morning Beijing time. This League is of pretty low-level compared to most European leagues – and for example the Brazilian Serie A or the Argentinian Liga Profesional. We cannot expect a particularly entertaining clash. However, I see a lucrative betting opportunity here. The biggest, often somewhat smart bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers see the hosts as favorites offering them odds of around 2.50 to send Cobresal home empty-handed. I definitely disagree! With the expected lineups I see the visitors as solid favorites. However, the recommended bet is Cobresal to take at least a point (+0.5 goals handicap option). I see this match as slightly more low-scoring and the draw as a more probable result than the betting market does. There have been more goals scored in many of both teams' recent matches which probably affects the odds. The hosts were promoted to this level for this season and I expected them to have a relatively challenging season as they lack quality in all areas of the game to compete successfully at this level. I do not understand why the bookies trust them so much - at least at this point..  I also want to mention that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt..com, their players have a low total market value of just 6.45 million euros. Even this number is too high in my opinion – I would set the number at around five million. At least three players are over-valued. 

The hosts have won just one match in this league this season. They took this win on the 17th of this month away from home over U. Espanola which is a poor team and are currently in the last place in this league with a total of 16 clubs. Magallanes were the favorites in this match according to the bookies but was not a particularly impressive performance – the game could easily have gone either way. Magallanes did record a few more goal attempts but both teams recorded five shots on goal. U Espanaola recorded more attacks and dangerous attacks – 56-43. They have lost three of the five games in this league and would have to improve – or get lucky to win this one.. Cobresal had a strong last season and finished in 5th place wirth 45 points and earned a ticket to the Copa Sudamericana qualification.They are in the 5th place at the moment in the standings as well and I expect another pretty strong season from them as they do not have any clear weaknesses in their game! They have netted the ball nine times and allowed seven goals in this league so far and undoubtedly have an edge in all areas of the games over the hosts. They have grabbed eight points and have lost just one game! This loss came in the second round away from home as clear underdogs against Huachipato, a strong team. Cobresal did have their chances in this game but were not at their best and the hosts did deserve the win. In their most recent match they faced Nublense at home and it was a 1-1 draw. Cobresal would have deserved a win though as they recorded more goal attempts (17-6), shots on target, attacks and dangerous attacks.