Marseille vs PSG

Marseille and PSG lock horns at Stade Vélodrome in this Ligue 1 round 25 clash early Beijing time. We have every reason to expect a fine, entertaining battle here between these two top teams in the fourth-best league in the world. Indeed, the stakes are high as Marseille have a genuine chance of winning the championship this spring! PSG have been worse than most football journalists, the betting market or I would have expected before the season started last August. I have, as a result, lowered PSG's power rating - that reflects the teams' pure class – several times as the season has progressed. Even so, they are still undoubtedly the best team in this league. However, they heavily rely on Mbappe and Messi but Neymar, despite being a bit lazy and even unmotivated sometimes, is a very important player for the reigning Champions. Had Neymar been available for this encounter, PSG would probably have felt confident of coming away from hostile territory with at least a point - and quite possibly a win. Unfortunately for them the Brazilian's absence due to an ankle injury coupled with Hakimi missing this game things do not look good for ”Les Parisiens”. Psg are also missing R. Sanches. Marseille will be without Gigot, Harit, Mbemba and Ruiz. The biggest, often relatively sharp bookmakers with the largest stake limits see them as favorites here offering odds of around 2.50-2.55 to travel home with all three points. That's definitely too low! With today's expected lineups and taking the massive home advantage into account Marseille deserve to be the favorites here!However, we will bet on Marseille to take at least a point (+0.5 goals handicap option). The chance of winning is high! The enthusiastic and loud home fans will offer a massive boost for Marseille. They hate PSG and everyone knows that by winning this the probability of winning the league for the first time in a long time would increase massively! 

There have reportedly been some problems within and around the PSG recently. For example the fans not being happy with Messi, some players having verbal fights, a member of club management acting in a weird way, German Tuchel possibly returning as the coach etc. Things do not seem to be quite stable in Paris.. The loss at home against Bayern in the UEFA Champions League last week was surely a big blow as this competition must be the main priority for PSG this season.. They have already won the Ligue 1 so many times over the last 10 years.. At the moment PSG top the standings with 57 points. However, I want to highlight that in terms of expected points (xPTS) they have been lucky and would have deserved just 48.98 points. Marseille, on the other hand, are in second place five points behind PSG. Their number of xPTS is 48.02. Let's also remember that Marseille beat PSG on the 8th of this month in a Coupe de France clash at home 2-1 and did deserve the win. They recorded many more scoring attempts (16-8) and shots on goal – 8-3 to be precise. They have lost just one of their most recent 12 games and are high in confidence at the moment! I also trust their coach a lot.PSG, on the other hand, have lost three of their latest five matches allowing 10 goals in these five games! They beat Lille in their most recent match as very clear favorites but Lille recorded more in expected goals (xG) 2.84-2.43 and could easily have won. I was not impressed by the way PSG defended – lacking structure and making too many mistakes.. Marseille were not at their best in their most recent game but still beat a dangerous team Toulouse 3-2 away from home. Before this they easily defeated Clermont 2-0 away from home after having 62% ball possession and recording more shots on goal and scoring attempts. They recorded 2.12 in xG – the hosts' number was just 0.53.