Another winner in La Liga?
2023-02-26

Borja

外籍分析师

西甲

02/26 21:00

已完赛

解读理由:

This should be a good game for Athletic.

They are a very strong home team as always, playing with high pressure, lot of pace, attacking from the wings with fast and talented players, and also a very physical midfield to control the games and don't allow rivals to have the ball easily (as Girona wants to do).

At home they are the best team with 11 rounds following Barcelona and Real Madrid (indeed Girona is above Athletic, but with one more game played and 1 more point), with a balance of 6 wins, 2 draws and just three defeats, conceding just 7 goals (the same as Real Madrid in Santiago Bernabéu after 10 rounds).

They use to perform pretty well against this kind of teams (mid-table or relegation). Where they lost the majority of the points so far has been against the top teams (Real Madrid, Atletico, Barcelona, Real Sociedad…) away fixtures or a few unlucky ones where they deserved to win but somehow, didn't do it.

This match is pretty important for them, as are two points below Rayo (6th) who is marking the Europa Conference League position and after yesterday’s defeat against Cadiz, winning today Athletic could take their place. I’m just a bit worried about the Spanish Cup game next Wednesday against Osasuna (½ finals), but coach Valverde said that he is not planning to make any kind of rotation, because need points in La Liga. According to the closest newspapers to the team, this is true and will use the best possible lineup.

On the other hand, Girona is having a great season. Are 11th on the table, playing a very offensive football. This means that they are scoring a lot of goals (33 so far, third best attack of the whole league after Real Madrid and Barcelona) but also conceding a lot - 33 as well, one of the worst defenses in La Liga.

They are in a situation which I like to bet against: when a small team achieved a huge victory. Girona is coming from a huge 6:2 victory over Almeria, and after this kind of results the teams use to decrease their performance a lot in the following game, especially if it’s away like this case.

Girona likes to have the control of the game and ball possession, but it’s something that Athletic won’t allow them because he has a very strong and physical midfield to avoid being dominated.

Furthermore, Girona is a terrible traveler: one of the worst in the league with just 1 victory in 10 games (6 defeats and 3 draws). The victory came against the bottom and relegated Elche.

Girona is a team with a really bad defense, they leave a lot of spaces and many offensive players who don't defend, so rivals use to find a lot of spaces to attack. But at home they use to dominate the games and always score 1-2 goals, so this isn’t a problem. But playing away this is a real problem because they can’t dominate the games and either score such amount of goals. The team has scored 23 goals at home and only 10 away, while has conceded almost the same amount (17 at home, 16 away).

Previous game played in Girona ended 2:1 but there the saw the classic performances by both teams this season: Girona playing very well and being strong at home, Athletic playing away at 50% of their level. But I believe here will be the opposite: Athletic showing their strength at home and Girona struggling playing as visitors.

If Athletic shows a good level without thinking in the Cup, they should be able to dominate Girona and surely will find spaces and chances to score goals and hopefully, take the three points.


这对毕尔巴鄂竞技来说应该是一场不错的比赛。

他们一如既往是一支非常强大的主队,压力大,节奏快,边路进攻速度快且有天赋的球员,而且中场身体素质非常好,可以控制比赛,不会让对手轻易拿到球(正如赫罗纳想要做的那样)。

在主场他们是最好的球队,11轮仅次于巴塞罗那和皇家马德里(赫罗纳确实在毕尔巴鄂竞技之上,但多打了一场比赛,多了1分),6胜2平仅3负,失球仅7个进球(与10轮后在圣地亚哥伯纳乌的皇马相同)。 他们过去常常在对阵这种球队时表现出色(中游或降级)。到目前为止,他们失去大部分积分的地方是对阵顶级球队(皇家马德里、马竞、巴塞罗那、皇家社会……)的客场比赛,或者一些他们本应获胜但不知何故却没有做到的不幸比赛。

这场比赛对他们来说非常重要,巴列卡诺在昨天被加的斯击败之后,今天毕包如果取胜可以取代他们的位置。我只是有点担心下周三西班牙杯对阵奥萨苏纳的比赛(½ 决赛),但教练巴尔韦德表示他不打算进行任何轮换,因为西甲需要积分。据最接近球队的报道,这是事实,并将使用尽可能最好的阵容。

另一方面,赫罗纳本赛季表现出色。在积分榜上排名第 11,踢的是一种非常进攻性的足球。这意味着他们打进了很多球(迄今为止 33 个,在整个联赛中排名第三,仅次于皇家马德里和巴塞罗那),但也丢了很多球——还有 33 个,是西甲防守最差的球队之一。 他们处于我喜欢打赌的情况:当一支小球队取得巨大胜利时。赫罗纳 (Girona) 以 6:2 大胜阿尔梅里亚 (Almeria),在取得这样的成绩后,球队用来降低他们的在接下来的比赛中表现很多,尤其是像这种情况下。

赫罗纳喜欢控制比赛和控球,但毕尔巴鄂竞技不允许他们这样做,因为他们非有身体强壮的中场来避免被控制。

此外,赫罗纳是一个糟糕的旅行者:联赛中最差的球队之一,10 场比赛仅取得 1 胜(6 负 3 平)。战胜垫底,降级埃尔切。

赫罗纳是一支防守非常糟糕的球队,他们留下了很多空间,而且很多进攻球员都不防守,所以对手经常会找到很多空间来进攻。但在主场他们常常统治比赛并且总是进 1-2 个球,所以这不是问题。但客场作战是一个真正的问题,因为他们无法主宰比赛,也无法打进如此多的进球。球队在主场进了 23 个球,客场只有 10 个,而失球数几乎相同(主场 17 个,客场 16 个)。

上一场比赛在赫罗纳2:1 结束,但看到了本赛季两支球队的经典表现:赫罗纳在主场表现出色且实力强劲,而毕尔巴鄂竞技在客场发​​挥了 50% 的水平。但我相信这里会出现相反的情况:毕尔巴鄂竞技在主场展示了他们的实力,而赫罗纳则在客场作战时苦苦挣扎。

如果毕尔巴鄂竞技在杯赛中表现出不假思索的良好水平,他们应该能够统治赫罗纳,并且肯定会找到进球的空间和机会,并有希望拿下三分。

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