If Pep Guardiola needs a pick-me-up following Manchester City’s dropped points in the Premier League, then a dash of UEFA Champions League action might be just the tonic.

With 97 wins from his 154 games managed in the tournament, the former Barcelona and Bayern Munich manager has the highest win percentage in the competition’s history (63%) of those who have taken charge of more than 50 games. And with Manchester City having only lost one of their previous 17 matches against German sides in the UEFA Champions League, hopes will be high of victory at the Red Bull Arena.

That one defeat against German opposition – last season. Against RB Leipzig. We’ll look at little closer at their two matches in last season’s group stage in just a moment, but Marco Rose’s side have won their last four games in the competition – their longest winning streak in the UCL. But their last three knockout games have seen them suffered defeats without scoring, including back-to-back 2-0 defeats against Liverpool in the last 16 in the 2020-2021 season.

Whilst not fully in what looks set to be a pulsating race for the Bundesliga crown, fifth placed RB Leipzig are just four points off the top of the table. They have scored in 18 of their 21 Bundesliga games so far this season with only Bayern having been able to achieve the feat in more matches. It’s a similarly rich vein of scoring form they’ve enjoyed in the Champions League at home, having done so in 15 of the 17 they’ve hosted at the Red Bull arena.

Their issue in this first leg tie though, Manchester City have kept a clean sheet in five of their last six away matches in the UCL, including in each of their three group stage games this season. And they are equally as dominant in attack – the 0-0 draw with Borussia Dortmund is the first time they’ve failed to score against a German side, and they’ve never failed to score in consecutive such fixtures in Europe.

For this match their key player Nkunku won’t be a starter. The France international, last year's player of the season in the Bundesliga, had been out since mid-November with an ankle injury but made his comeback in their win over VfL Wolfsburg on Saturday delivering one assist.

“Christo could only complete part of the training today because there was some reaction (from his injury)," Rose told a news conference. "We will certainly not start with him tomorrow. We will have to see if he can be with us tomorrow at all but we won't be taking any risks, we have a lot more matches this season”.

On the other hand, I have big hopes for Man City this year in the Champions League. City are desperate to do well in Europe this season, having never won Europe's elite club competition. They were knocked out by eventual champions Real Madrid in the semi-finals last season, having lost the final to Chelsea in 2021.

It’s true that this is a fragile Man City side right now. The highs of triumph over Arsenal in midweek and returning to the top of the Premier League table, being levelled out by a disappointing drawing against Nottingham Forest where the likes of Kevin de Bruyne (seven), Ilkay Gundogan (three) and Erling Haaland (two) peppered their opponent’s goal with 23 shots in total for the result of just one goal. But they are one of the best clubs in the world and for me, the main favorites to win this competition.

Key players Laporte and De Bruyne are out for this fixture, but City has one of the longest and best squads in Europe and shouldn't be a problem for Pep Guardiola to replace them. Laporte (who has been starter only in 7 PL games and 3 UCL fixtures so far) should be well replaced by Walker along with Akanji and Ake; while De Bruyne will be replaced by Julian Alvarez (as well as Gundogan, Bernardo Silva, Rodri or Kalvin Phillips).

Manchester City will dominate this match, have the control and possession of the game. Leipzig will need to be working hard to get any possession, and will try to use the few chances they will get with spaces. But I really believe that Manchester City should be able to get a victory here. For me they are a much better team and the match will be played as they want, and not following RB Leipzig’s plan.

如果瓜迪奥拉在曼城在英超联赛中丢分后需要提神，那么欧洲就是补药。

在他执教的 154 场比赛中取得了 97 场胜利，这位前巴塞罗那和拜仁慕尼黑主帅在执教超过 50 场比赛的球队历史上的胜率最高 (63%)。由于曼城在之前的 17 场欧洲冠军联赛中与德国球队的比赛只输了一场，因此在红牛竞技场取得胜利的希望很高。

上赛季对德国对手的那场失利。对阵 RB 莱比锡。稍后我们将仔细观察他们在上赛季小组赛阶段的两场比赛，但马可罗斯的球队在过去的四场比赛中都取得了胜利——这是他们在 UCL 中最长的连胜纪录。但他们最近的三场淘汰赛都遭遇了一场没有进球的失利，包括在2020-2021赛季的16强中背靠背2-0负于利物浦。

虽然在德甲冠军争夺战中似乎还没有完全融入，但排名第五的 RB 莱比锡仅落后积分榜榜首 4 分。本赛季到目前为止，他们在 21 场德甲比赛中有 18 场进球，只有拜仁能够在更多比赛中取得进球。这与他们在主场的冠军联赛中享受的得分形式类似，在红牛主场举办的 17 场欧冠比赛中，有 15 场都是如此。

尽管他们在第一回合的比赛中遇到了问题，但曼城在最近六场欧冠客场比赛中有五场保持零封，包括本赛季三场小组赛。他们在进攻端同样具有统治力——0-0 战平多特蒙德队是他们第一次未能在对阵德国球队的比赛中进球，而且他们在欧洲的连续此类比赛中从未未能进球。

对于这场比赛，他们的关键球员 Nkunku 将不会首发。这位法国国脚是去年德甲赛季最佳球员，自 11 月中旬以来脚踝受伤一直缺席，但在周六战胜沃尔夫斯堡的比赛中复出并送出一次助攻。

“克里斯托今天只能完成部分训练，因为（他的伤势）有一些反应，”罗斯在新闻发布会上说。“我们明天肯定不会让他首发。”我们将不得不看看他明天是否能和我们在一起，但我们不会冒任何风险，这个赛季我们还有很多比赛。”

另一方面，我对曼城今年的欧冠寄予厚望。曼城本赛季渴望在欧洲取得好成绩，因为他们从未赢得过欧洲精英俱乐部的比赛。他们在上赛季的半决赛中被最终的冠军皇家马德里淘汰出局，并在 2021 年的决赛中输给了切尔西。

诚然，曼城现在是一支脆弱的球队。周中战胜阿森纳并重返英超积分榜榜首的高潮，被诺丁汉森林令人失望的战平拉平，凯文·德布劳内（7）、伊尔凯·京多安（3）和埃尔林·哈兰德（2） ) 以 1 球的成绩，一共射门 23 次。但他们是世界上最好的俱乐部之一，对我来说，他们是赢得这场比赛的主要热门。

关键球员拉波尔特和德布劳内无法参加这场比赛，但曼城拥有欧洲最长、最好的球队之一，瓜迪奥拉取代他们应该不是问题。 Laporte（到目前为止，他只在 7 场 PL 比赛和 3 场 UCL 比赛中首发）应该被 Walker 以及 Akanji 和 Ake 很好地取代；而德布劳内将被朱利安·阿尔瓦雷斯（以及京多安、贝尔纳多·席尔瓦、罗德里或卡尔文·菲利普斯）取代。

曼城将主宰这场比赛，拥有比赛的控制权和控球权。莱比锡将需要努力争取任何控球权，并将尝试利用他们获得的空间机会。但我真的相信曼城应该能在这里取得一场胜利。对我来说，他们是一支更好的球队，比赛会按照他们的意愿进行，而不是遵循 RB 莱比锡的计划。