Sarmiento Junin VS San Lorenzo

Sarmiento Junin host San Lorenzo for this Argentinian Liga Profesional round 4 at Estadio Eva Peron early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This league is of lower level as a whole by international standards than most football fans probably realize - taking into account what an awesome football country Argentina is in terms of football culture and – of course, Argentina lifted the World Cup trophy last December in Qatar! San Lorenzo are undoubtedly the better by pure class. They do have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game. However, in my view the difference in class between the two teams is much smaller than many football analysts or – most importantly – the betting market seems to believe at the moment.. Sarmiento Junin currently occupy the 18th place in the standings and have grabbed four points so far. They have netted the ball five times so far in this league this season. San Lorenzo, on the other hand, have scored just three goals. Indeed -  taking the potential and last season's performance into account - in this area of the game I see them having only a marginal edge. I have not been impressed by their offense so far which seems to lack pace, structure and especially creativity. They have been somewhat lucky to grab six points so far - with two 1-0 wins.

In their most recent match the visitors beat Godoy Cruz at home as solid favorites – priced around 2.20 to win on the betting market. It was, however, a relatively balanced clash. San Lorenzo had 51% ball possession but the visitors recorded more goal attempts, attacks (117-99) and dangerous attacks. In the second round they lost to Lanus away from home 1-2 after a somewhat balanced clash after having 51% ball possession and many more goal attempts. Lanus, on the other hand, recorded many more shots on goal than San Lorenzo. They have allowed just two goals – Sarmiento Junin have conceded five goals and in this area the visitors have a pretty clear edge. However, quite interestingly, they allowed all five goals in an extremely open, even a bit bizarre match at home against Barracas Central on the 4th of this month. 3-5 was the final score but the match was, in reality, more balanced. The goal expectancy here is low – the probability of under 2.5 total goals is 70% and a draw would not surprise no one. The probability of this result is indeed high -  34%. San Lorenzo usually play pretty defensive, sometimes even cautious football on the road. Furthermore, I also do not expect Sarmiento Junin to be very aggressive offensively here as this makes them very vulnerable - even against a mediocre team like today's opponent. In their most recent match they took a fine win 2-0 as clear underdogs away from home against a more dangerous team than the league table suggests, Colon Santa Fe – surely a massive boost to their confidence going into this game! Taking the substantial home advantage into account the match is a coin toss (50-50%) in my view and we will bet the hosts not to lose with a high chance of winning!