OFI Crete vs Aris Thessaloniki

OFI Crete host Aris for this Greek Super League clash at Theodoros Vardinogiannis Stadium in Heraklion early Tuesday morning Beijing time. However, in reality the hosts have played 32 matches but West Brom only 31 games so far in this league. This league is of pretty good level by European standards and we can expect decent entertainment here. There is no doubt the fact that Aris are the better team by pure class here. They do have an edge in all areas of the game but I see the difference between the two teams as much smaller than the betting market does at the moment. The biggest, often pretty smart bookies with the largest betting limits see Aris as solid favorites offering them odds of around 2.40 to travel home with all three points. I must disagree - I do not see a favorite in this match at all – it is a coin toss (50-50%) - even with today's expected lineups. Indeed, the odds on the recommended bet (+0.5 on the hosts) are lucrative and the chance of winning is high as a draw would be enough. Let's not forget that Aris have lost six of their latest seven games! They are clearly low in confidence and according to my sources the atmosphere within the team is also far from optimal.. In their most recent match they were disappointing and lost to Panathinaikos at home as favorites according to the betting market. 1-2 was the final score and the visitors did record more goal attempts, shots on goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. Aris did, however, have 51% ball possession and marginally more total passes.

The visitors are currently in 6th place with 31 points but might drop out from the Championship Group place (1-6) unless they improve their level of football.  OFI Crete have taken 23 points and are in 10th place but their number of expected points (xPTS) is 26.22.  Last season they finished in 7th place after the regular season and can improve further. They have lost four games in a row and away from home they have won just two matches -and lost seven - in this league this season and have an away goal difference of 8:13. OFI Crete have not been achieving  very strong results at home this season but the home advantage in the Super League on average – and in this match as well - is still substantial! Before the game against Panathinaikos the visitors lost to Ionikos, a lowly team currently in 12th place with just 15 points, 0-1 away from home as very clear favorites – priced around 1.65 to win. They would have deserved a point as they had 64% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts and shots on goal (4-3) but I was not at all impressed by their performance. Their offense lacked structure, speed, creativity and passina accuracy. Before this they lost to AEK Athens and Olympiacos without scoring a goal. The hosts, on the other hand, have lost just two of their most recent 12 games and played great as a team. Their defense has been awesome lately and they have allowed just two goals in their latest seven matches! Their confidence seems to be sky-high and I do trust their coach a lot. In their most recent match they crushed Lamia 4-1 away from home!