Casa Pia vs Victoria Guimaraes

Casa Pia welcome Vitoria Guimaraes for this Liga Portugal round 21 battle at Estadio Pina Manique in Lisbon early Monday morning Beijing time. This league is relatively high level by European standards but, of course, not as competitive as the top-4 leagues. The top teams in this league (Benfica, Porto and Sporting CP so far) have got some success even at the highest level, UEFA Champions League. in recent years. Unfortunately, neither of the two clubs here are among the very best teams in Portugal by any standards – but are above average and both are, in fact, having a strong season so far! Casa Pia are currently in the 5th place in the standings with 31 points to their account. They have netted the ball just 18 times so far which is indeed a very low number.. Even Estoril, currently in 5th place, have scored more goals! However, the key to their success has mainly been the very solid defense. They have allowed just 20 goals – less than Sporting CP in 4th place. According to my sources they also have an excellent team spirit. They were promoted from Liga Portugal 2 for this season after finishing in second place after Rio Ave in this league with a respectable 68 points. Casa Pia have positively surprised probably at least 99% of football journalists, the betting market and me!  Early in the season I did raise their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class from my in-depth preseason analysis. However, in this month I have lowered their power rating significantly – much more than the betting market it seems.. 7-8 of their players have played above their normal level so far and it has been clear all along that this cannot really go on for the whole season. They have been in decline for about a month now results-wise and on the pitch in real action. They have won just one of their most recent six games losing four of these six matches and it seems their confidence has – totally understandably – taken a serious hit. 

The hosts were extremely lame – especially offensively – in their most recent match. It was an away game against Boavista, a mediocre team and no goals were scored. Boavista would have deserved a win though after having close to 60% ball possession and recording more goal attempts, shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks (147-84) and dangerous attacks – 64-38. Moreover, the hosts create much more in expected goals (xG) - 1.21-0.39. The bookmakers see the hosts as solid favorites here but even with the expected lineups – the hosts have a better situation in terms of absent players - I cannot agree with them! I see this match as a 50-50% battle without a favorite. The goal expectancy is very low and the probability of a draw is high – 34%. Vitoria Guimaraes, too, have struggled with scoring - netting the ball just 19 times so far in this league. Even so, they are in 5th place and their number of xG is 24.23. Defensively they only have a slim edge over the hosts. The visitors performed well last season finishing in 6th place with 48 points and have much more experience of playing in this league at a stable - good level. I see them having pretty much room to improve their offense – they would need more pace, passing accuracy and creativity. However, they have been in fine form lately winning three games in a row but still scored just four games in these games. Lastly, I want to mention that Vitoria Guimaraes are a much bigger team in terms of players' total market value according to Transfermarkt.com with some 37 million euros. The hosts' squad is valued at close to 16 million..