Excelsior VS NEC Nijmegen

Excelsior welcome Nijmegen for this Dutch Eredivisie round 22 clash at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Rotterdam early Monday morning Beijing time. This league is of pretty good level by European standards the best teams can compete against top European teams. Ajax have done pretty well even in the UEFA champions League in recent years. However, none of the two teams here are among the top teams.. However, almost all teams in this league aim to ”playin football” trying to control the ball, passing it in a controlled way - not just having all – or almost all players near the goal defending. This strategy is commonly known as ”parking the bus” Indeed, we can expect decent entertainment here. However, I see to match is sligtly more low-scoring than the betting market does. The probability of under 2.5 goals being scored is 51%. Nijmegen have a solid defense and have allowed just 22 goals in this league so far. This is, in fact, less than AZ Alkmaar, in third place, have conceded! However, I want to highlight that this number (22) massively flatters them as their expected number of goals allowed (xGA) is 28.21!

The visitors' offense has been very ineffective this season and they have netted the ball just 24 times! Indeed, in this area of the game Nijmegen have only a marginal edge. Indeed, the hosts have scored 20 goals but would have deserved more in terms of expected goals (xG) - 23.11. The visitors have taken four more points than Excelsior so far - 24 – and I simply cannot agree with the betting market that sees that as clear favorites – offering them odds of around 2.25 to win. Yes. They are the better team by pure class and do have an edge in all areas of the game but in my opinion they are only very marginal favorites. The +0.5 goals handicap on the hosts is a excellent betting idea here. Nijmegen have been bad on the road winning just two of their most recent matches away from home. I also want to mention that according to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the visitors's players have a total market value of round 19 million euros. In my opinion this is a bit too high.. I would set the number at around 17.5 million.. The hosts's players have a total market value of some 15 million which is more or less correct in my view. The have been pretty good at home this season.. Both teams are in pretty bad form. However, Nijmegen have not won any of their most recent five games and are low in confidence.