Santa Clara vs Famalicao

Santa Clara welcome this Liga Portugal round 21 clash at Estádio de São Miguel in Ponta Delgada late Sunday evening Beijing time. This level is of pretty high level by European standards but not as competitive as the top-4 leagues. The very best teams in this league (Benfica, Porto and Sporting CP so far) have done well even at the highest level, UEFA Champions League in recent years. Unfortunately, neither of the two clubs here are among the very best teams in Portugal by any standards – especially this season. Both are, in fact, having an incredibly disappointing season so far. Indeed, Santa Clara, in particular, are having a significantly worse season than probably at least 90% of the football analysts, the bookmakers or I would have expected before the season started. A team that finished in7h place with 40 points in the pocket last season – are now in 16th place in the league table! Santa Clara have grabbed just 15 points so far but in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved 20.56 points. They have netted the ball 14 times so far in Liga Portugal but their number of expected goals (xG) is clearly bigger – 19.55. They have conceded 26 goals and the number of expected goals allowed is 24.01. Indeed, their defense has been pretty good and even a moderate improvement in offense would mean they would start taking much more points per game than they have so far. For example Arouca, currently in 7th place, have allowed several more goals – 29 to be precise. I trust their coach to improve this area of the game.

Famalicao are in 14th place but I have not seen them improving at all lately.. Their level has clearly dropped from last season – more than the bookies seem to realize.. Indeed, in the 2021-2022 they finished in 8th place with 39 points. They have taken 21 points so far but their xPTS is slightly smaller and the goal difference is just moderately better than that of the hosts. In their most recent match they lost to another disappointing team this season, Gil Vicente, 0-1 at home.They were priced around 2.05 to win on the better market before the match started and it was easy to see during and after the match that these odds were way too low and they are overvalued once again here. Famalicao did have 66% ball possession but both teams recorded 16 scoring attempts and three shots on goal. Famalicao recorded 1.27 in xG – Gil Vicente's number was 1.21. Before this they did beat BSAD in Taca de Portugal – 4-1 but the score does not reflect the actual events on the pitch as BSAD even recorded more shots on goal despite Famalicao being very clear favorites in this match. The ball possession was almost 50-50%. In Liga Portugal Famalicao have not impressed me lately and lost to Braga 1-4 away from home on the 5th of this month after a horribly shaky defensive performance. They have not beaten a strong team for a long time.. They are only slim favorites here in front of their fans. The hosts lost to Arouca 0-1 away from home in their most recent game and were not the better team but with even a little bit of luck could have taken a point. Arouca recorded a bit more in xG 0.54-0.40. The visitors are marginally better by pure class but with the home advantage the hosts are slim favorites here according to my sophisticated, in-depth analysis. We will go with the hosts to take at least a point (+0.5 goals handicap) in this match with a low goal expectancy and high probability of a draw. The bookies, on the other hand, see Famalicao as solid favorites – offering them odds of around 2.37-2.55 to take all three points.

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北京时间周日晚些时候，圣克拉拉将在蓬塔德尔加达球场Estádio de São米格尔迎接这场西甲第21轮的比赛。按照欧洲的标准，这个水平相当高，但不像前四联赛那么有竞争力。联赛中最好的几支球队(本菲卡、波尔图和里斯本竞技)近年来甚至在最高水平的欧冠联赛中也表现出色。不幸的是，无论以何种标准衡量，这两家俱乐部都不是葡萄牙最好的球队——尤其是本赛季。事实上，到目前为止，他们都经历了一个令人难以置信的令人失望的赛季。事实上，尤其是圣克拉拉队，他们的赛季比至少90%的足球分析师、博彩公司和我在赛季开始前所预计的要糟糕得多。一支上赛季以40分的成绩排在第7位的球队现在在积分榜上排名第16位!圣克拉拉到目前为止只拿到了15分，但就预期积分(xPTS)而言，他们应该得到20.56分。到目前为止，他们已经在西甲葡萄牙联赛中破门14次，但他们的预期进球数(xG)显然更高——19.55个。他们已经丢了26个球，预期失球数是24.01个。事实上，他们的防守相当不错，即使在进攻上有适度的改善，也意味着他们将开始比目前得到更多的得分。例如，目前排名第七的阿鲁卡队，又丢了几个球——准确地说是29个。我相信他们的教练会改善这方面的比赛。

法马利科排在第14位，但我最近没有看到他们有任何进步。他们的水平明显比上个赛季下降了——比博彩公司似乎意识到的要多。事实上，在2021-2022赛季，他们以39分排名第八。到目前为止，他们已经拿到了21分，但他们的xPTS略小，净胜球也只是略好于东道主。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场0-1输给了另一支令人失望的球队吉尔维森特。在比赛开始前，他们在更好的市场上被定价为2.05左右，在比赛中和赛后很容易看出，这些赔率太低了，他们再次被高估了。法马利科确实有66%的控球率，但两支球队都有16次射门和3次射门。法马利科的xG值为1.27，而吉尔·维森特的xG值为1.21。在此之前，他们确实在葡萄牙塔卡以4-1击败了BSAD，但比分并不能反映球场上的实际情况，因为BSAD甚至有更多的射门，尽管法马利科在这场比赛中非常受欢迎。控球率几乎是50-50%。在葡萄牙的西甲联赛中，法马利科最近并没有给我留下深刻的印象，本月5日在客场1-4输给了布拉加，因为他们的防守表现糟糕得可怕。他们已经很长时间没有打败强队了。在他们的球迷面前，他们只是微弱的热门。东道主在最近的一场比赛中以0-1输给了阿鲁卡，他们不是更好的球队，但只要有一点点运气就可以拿到一分。Arouca记录的xG 0.54-0.40稍多一些。客队在级别上略好一些，但根据我复杂而深入的分析，由于主场优势，东道主在这里的胜算不大。我们将与东道主一起在这场比赛中至少拿1分(+0.5个进球)，进球期望很低，平局的可能性很大。