Cork City vs Bohemians

Cork City host Bohemians for this Irish Premier League opening round at Turners Cross early Saturday morning Beijing time. For a European first tier this league is of bad level – even more level than Finland's, my home country's, highest level - Veikkausliiga. Football fans and bettors cannot, I'm afraid, really expect a particularly entertaining game here.. However, my fans and I have done extremely well betting on the Irish Premier League in the past. Our aim is, after all, to make a hefty long-term profit! The bookmakers seem to make quite a few mistakes with their odds on this league – as well as on many other lower-level leagues.. They understandably focus mainly on big, popular leagues with the largest betting limits. The first 3-4 rounds in most leagues are often relatively low-scoring as the teams are often still pretty far from their very best level.. Defending is, after all, in general easier than high-quality offensive football – particularly if/when the pitch is not in the best condition.. Indeed, in my books this battle has a lower goal expectancy than the betting market estimates. The odds on the draw are quite interesting – around 3.15.. My probability estimation for the under 2.5 total goals being scored is 63% and 34% for the draw. I must disagree with the largest, often pretty sharp bookmakers that offer the biggest betting limits Indeed, the bookmakers see Bohemians as slim favorites offering them odds of around 2.50 to take all three points. With today's expected lineups the hosts should be narrow favorites! This means that my fans and I have an awesome chance of winning once again betting on this league with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap option on Cork City as the draw would be enough.

Bohemians are the stronger team here by pure class but the difference in pure class between the teams is extremely slim! In terms of offensive capability the visitors do have an edge as their offensive structure and the strikers' skill level is better on average and have more experience on playing at this level. Even so, I expect Cork City to keep on playing great as a team! According to my reliable sources they also have a very good team spirit. Bohemians scored a decent number of goals last season in this league – 45 to be precise. However, I expect to be a little worse this season in this area of the game as they had some luck in terms of expected goals (xG) last season.. Cork City netted the ball a whopping 63 times and allowed just 22 goals. However, they played in the Division 1 last season and the Premier League is of much better level.. They have room for improvement offensively but it will probably take some time for them to be at their best at this level where the tempo and the opponent's defenders are in general more skilled, faster and stronger..  However, I expect them to be more ready to compete at this level than the bookies do.. I believe Cork will be under-rated in many games early this season.The newly promoted teams often play above their normal level at the start of the season and this is something the betting market often does not give enough emphasis to. This is probably mainly explained by the massive mental boost following the promotion as well as good self-confidence after winning most games in the previous season. This is true in most leagues in Europe, especially in the UK and Ireland! Cork City won Division 1 last season – taking four more points than Waterford and were clearly the best team. They only allowed 22 goals, winning 20/32 games and losing just four. Bohemians, on the other hand, had a mediocre season and finished in 6th place with 46 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) was just 42.28. I do not expect them to make it to the top-6 this season and have them in the 8th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. They conceded 46 goals but I expect them to allow over 50 goals this season.

The hosts are in good form, losing just one of their most recent five matches. Moreover, they have allowed just one goal in these five games! This loss came against a strong team, Dundalk, 0-1, but Cork City,too, had their chances in this game.. I have not been able to see all these five matches but based on my notes and in-depth match reports their defense has looked very good indeed. However, I must highlight that all the five most recent games were preseason friendlies where coaches often rotate the squad heavily and players usually avoid injuries.. Bohemians, on the other hand, have taken five wins in row but have had some luck on their side in many of these games. They finished last season poorly winning just one - and losing three of their last five games. Cork City do have a very loud and enthusiastic home crowd by this league's standards and a good number of fans is expected to celebrate the return to this level. At a neutral location Bohemians would be slim favorites but not here! Last season their score difference at home was very good – 27:9.According to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Cork Cuty's players have a total market value of 1.8 millions euros.In my opinion this is slightly too low.. I would set the number at around 2.1 million.. The visitors' players have a total market value of 2 million which is also marginally too low in my view. Lastly, I want to mention that I trust the hosts' coach a lot but Bohemians' coach is over-rated in my view..