This is a match where the actual results and league position lie significantly, as Verona are the better team here, by a long distance!

In the actual table Verona still are in the relegation zone with 14 points, but the underlying performance data reveals us that they should have about 26 points by now, and that would place them in the safety of the midtable!

Verona have won only 3 games this season, but all of them have come at home. 10 points collected at home is not good, but again there is a lot of room for bad luck in front of both goals, and they are a midtable home team class-wise.

Since coming from the break they have 2-3-1 saldo from their 6 latest games, the loss being a 1-0 at Inter away, and even in that game they conceded only 0.6 goals worth of goal expectancy.

All in all, they are a midtable team with strong motivation, good results to boost the self-condidence, a good form, and no major absentees. And at home!

Salernitana have all the opposite in regard to performances and results.

They have collected 21 points in their 21 matches, but they have been lucky to get this much as their expected points would take them clearly to the relegation zone. The season has been especially difficult on their travels, they have 9 points from their away matches but it should be a 5-6 points, and that places them as the worst away team in Serie A this season! No wonder, they have conceded 25 goals on their travels in 10 games.

Partly that is explained by the 8-2 thrasing away at Atalanta, but also teams like Monza (3-0) and Sassuolo (5-0) have been enjoying entertaining the poor Salernitana side.

And guess what? Verona are no weaker team than Sassuolo or Monza, they have just been unluckiest of the trio.

The Salernitana frontline with Piatek, Candreva and Dia is not bad, but the defense really is, and in a top important match like this I tend to go with the team who has the better defense, and that is definitely Verona today who have had 2nd best defensive record since the break after league leaders Napoli!

Hellas Verona:

Montipo; Magnani, Hien, Ceccherini; Depaoli, Duda, Tameze, Doig; Lazovic; Ngonge, Lasagna

Salernitana:

Ochoa; Sambia, Troost-Ekong, Bronn, Bradaric; Candreva, Coulibaly, Bohinen, Vilhena; Dia, Bonazzoli