Köln vs Frankfurt

Köln welcome Frankfurt for this German Bundesliga round 20 battle RheinEnergieStadion in Cologne very early Monday Beijing time. A pretty high-quality game is on the cards here between these two pretty good teams in the third-best league in the world - after the English Premier League and the Spanish LaLiga! However, I see the match as even more low-scoring than the bookmakers do.. Based on my sophisticated in-depth the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored here to be 52%. I will comment on this rationale later on in this preview.. The probability of this result is 30%. This would be enough for my fans and me to win the 10th bet in a row - the record at the time of writing this analysis - with the recommended +0.5 goal handicap option on FC Köln. The biggest, usually rather smart bookmakers with the largest betting limits see the visitors as narrow favorites offering them odds of around 2.50 on them to travel home all three points. I simply cannot agree with the bookies here! The odds on Köln to win are around 2.70 on the betting market and this is definitely too much. In my view they have a 41-42% chance to win. We must remember that Köln are a very strong team in front of their loud fans and have lost just twice at their stadium so far in Bundesliga so far this season. Their goal difference at home is terrific – 18:10. There is very little between the two teams in terms of pure class. The visitors are only very marginally stronger as a whole. Let's not forget that Köln had a very strong last season and finished in 7th place with 52 points and goal difference of 52:49! Frankfurt, on the other hand, surprised everyone and won the UEFA Europa League but in the Bundesliga they finished in 11th place with just 42 points and a negative score difference.. They even beat Barcelona on their way to the Europa League victory and I believe this amazing achievement still affects the odds this season. We must not forget that Frankfurt had some luck in the Europa League and Barcelona were far from their current level last spring.. I do expect the odds on FC Köln to be cut before the match starts as clever money is expected to pile up on the hosts unless some new, crucial information on the absent players comes up.. I am writing this analysis on Friday evening Beijing time.

The hosts are expected to be missing S. Andersson (knee injury, F. Dietz (also knee), L. Kilian (muscle), D.Limnios, (knee), K. Pedersen (muscle), D. Selke (knee) and M. Uth (abdominal). D. Ljubicic has been ill and his situation is questionable at this point. As for the visitors the list is shorter. J. Dina Emimbe has a muscle injury, J. Lindström (hip) and M. Wenig (broken ankle) are also out. J. Grahl's situation is questionable. Both teams are in fine form and have not lost any of their latest five games. The hosts have recorded two wins and three draws – Frankfurt have won 3/5 latest games. Both teams have even taken a point from the mighty Bayern Munich recently – in Munich! The hosts currently occupy the 11th place in the standings but will most probably climb up the standings as the season progresses. Their number of expected points is 28.02 and the actual number of points in the pocket is just 23! This is probably the main rationale behind the undervaluation on the betting market.. In their most recent match they faced RB Leipzig at home and it was a goalless draw. The visitors were clear favorites in this game and I was impressed by the way Köln defended as a team! They are definitely a better team than the list of players would suggest! According to my sources they also have a great team spirit and I also trust their coach, S. Baumgart, a lot. He is an under-rated professional.

Köln have conceded 31 goals but in reality their defense is much better. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is just 22.02. I expect them to be patient here, avoiding big risks against a dangerous opponent.. Their fans surely understand this.. Frankfurt, on the other hand, are in 5th place at the moment but I would be surprised to see them finish in the top-6! They have taken 35 points but their number of xPTS is just 28.56! Moreover, they have scored a whopping 40 goals – the second-highest number in this league after Bayern Munich, but their number of xG is just 30.12. I believe the betting market clearly overestimates their offensive power. However, in this area of the game they do have a small edge in this clash. They have won two of their most recent matches but the final scores flatter them. On the 7th of this month they took a 4-2 win over a small team Darmstadt who play in the 2. Bundesliga. It was a DFB Pokal (cup) game at home and Frankfurt did deserve the win but both teams recorded 13 scoring attempts and the hosts had just one more shot on target. They were big favorites in this game on the betting market. Furthermore, on the 4th of this month they beat Hertha Berlin 3-0 at home but the visitors even recorded more scoring attempts – 13-10 to be precise. Frankfurt did deserve the three points though after recording more in xG 1.89-1.02.

北京时间周一凌晨，科隆队在科隆迎战法兰克福队，参加德甲第20轮的比赛。在世界第三大联赛中，这两支非常优秀的球队之间即将展开一场高质量的比赛——仅次于英超联赛和西班牙西甲联赛！然而，我认为这场比赛比博彩公司的得分更低。根据我的深入研究，这里总进球数低于 2.5 的概率为 52%。我稍后会在这个预览中评论这个理由。这个结果的概率是 30%。这足以让我和我的球迷连续第 10 次下注 - 撰写此分析时的记录 - 推荐的 FC Köln +0.5 进球让分选项。最大的、通常相当聪明的博彩公司拥有最大的投注限额，将客队视为热门热门，为他们提供大约 2.50 的赔率，让他们全取三分。我简直不能同意博彩公司的观点这里！在博彩市场上，科隆获胜的赔率约为 2.70，这绝对是太高了。在我看来，他们有 41-42% 的机会获胜。我们必须记住，科隆在他们喧闹的球迷面前是一支非常强大的球队，本赛季到目前为止，在他们的德甲联赛中，科隆只输过两次球。他们在主场的净胜球非常棒——18:10。就纯班级而言，两队之间的差距很小。客队整体上只稍微强一点。别忘了，科隆上赛季的表现非常强劲，以52分和52:49的净胜球排名第7！另一方面，法兰克福出乎所有人的意料，赢得了欧洲联赛冠军，但在德甲联赛中，他们仅以 42 分和负分差排名第 11 名。他们甚至在获得欧洲联赛冠军的路上击败了巴塞罗那，我相信这个惊人的成就仍然影响着本赛季的赔率。我们不能忘记，法兰克福在欧罗巴杯上运气不错联赛和巴塞罗那在去年春天远未达到目前的水平。我确实希望在比赛开始前科隆队的赔率会降低，因为除非有关于缺席球员的一些新的重要信息出现，否则预计聪明的钱会堆积在东道主身上up.. 我在北京时间周五晚上写这篇分析。

主队预计将缺少 S. Andersson（膝伤）、F. Dietz（也是膝盖）、L. Kilian（肌肉）、D.Limnios（膝盖）、K. Pedersen（肌肉）、D. Selke（膝盖）和 M. Uth（腹部）。D. Ljubicic 生病了，此时他的情况值得怀疑。至于访客名单较短。J. Dina Emimbe 肌肉受伤，J. Lindström（臀部）和 M.韦尼格（脚踝骨折）也缺席。J.格拉尔的情况值得怀疑。两队状态都很好，最近五场比赛都没有输过。东道主取得了2胜3平的成绩 - 法兰克福最近取得了3/5的胜利比赛。两支球队最近甚至从强大的拜仁慕尼黑拿了一分——在慕尼黑！东道主目前在积分榜上排名第 11 位，但随着赛季的进行，积分榜很可能会上升。他们的预期积分为 28.02 和口袋里的实际点数只有 23！这可能是投注低估的主要原因market.. 在他们最近的比赛中，他们在主场面对莱比锡，双方互交白卷。客队显然是这场比赛的热门，我对科隆队的防守方式印象深刻！他们绝对是一支比球员名单所建议的更好的球队！根据我的消息来源，他们也有很好的团队精神，我也非常信任他们的教练 S. Baumgart。他是一个被低估的专业人士。

科隆丢了 31 个球，但实际上他们的防守要好得多。他们的预期进球数 (xGA) 仅为 22.02。我希望他们在这里耐心等待，避免面对危险对手的大风险。他们的球迷肯定明白这一点。另一方面，法兰克福目前排名第五，但我会很惊讶地看到他们排名第一-6！他们得到了35分，但他们的xPTS只有28.56！此外，他们打进了惊人的 40 个进球——仅次于拜仁慕尼黑的联赛第二高进球数，但他们的 xG 数量仅次于拜仁慕尼黑。30.12.我相信博彩市场显然高估了他们的攻击力。然而，在这场比赛中，他们在这场比赛中确实占据了小优势。他们最近赢了两场比赛，但最终的比分让他们受宠若惊。本月 7 日，他们以 4-2 击败了参加德甲联赛的小球队达姆施塔特。这是一场在主场进行的 DFB Pokal（杯赛）比赛，法兰克福确实配得上这场胜利，但两支球队都有 13 次进球尝试，东道主只多了一次射正。在博彩市场上，他们是这场比赛的大热门。此外，本月 4 日，他们在主场以 3-0 击败柏林赫塔，但客队的进球次数甚至更多——准确地说是 13-10。法兰克福在 xG 1.89-1.02 的记录更多之后确实配得上这三分。