Manchester City vs Aston Villa

Manchester City welcome Aston Villa for this English Premier League round 23 battle at Etihad Stadium early Monday morning Beijing time. However, in reality both teams have played only 21 games in this league this season. There is no doubt about the fact that Manchester City are clearly the better team here. However, a +1.5 handicap for a pretty good team like Aston Villa is usually worth at least taking a look at.. Odds on Aston Villa have completely understandably been coming down on Saturday. The biggest, usually pretty smart bookmakers with the largest betting limits currently offer odds of around 2.20 for the visitors to avoid losing by more than one goal's margin. This is clearly too much as the chance of winning is 53% based on my sophisticated in depth analysis. Do not get me wrong, Pep Guardiola's team is still among the best teams on the planet. They are still in first place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. However, they are no longer the favorites to lift the Premier League, the best league on the planet, trophy this spring. Before the season started last August this is something I would not have imagined to write at this point of the season. Everything seemed to indicate that ”The Citizens” would win the league – perhaps even pretty easily. The Norwegian star striker, Erling Håland, joined the club for this season and has scored a big number of goals this season. He is not to blame for the disappointing season. It is impossible to point out any specific reason as to why City have been so far from last season's level of football in most games this season.. They have three of their latest six games - as clear favorites according to the betting market. Even Southampton, a very lowly team, beat them 2-0 in the EFL Cup on the 11th of January!

I have had no other chance but to significantly lower Man City's power rating from the in-depth preseason analysis. The bookmakers, too, have clearly done the same but it seems they still respect Man City too much. Most of my fans have probably heard about the alleged preaces of financial rules by The Premier League. I will not explain this complicated issue here in detail. My fans can search for more information online. However, how/if they will be punished and when is still totally unclear. It is, however, possible that they will even be relegated to the Championship in the future. Pep Guardiola has publicly stated in the past that he will leave if he finds out that he has been lied to.. I'm positive this news will not at least help the atmosphere within the team but of course how much the news hurts their chances here is impossible to say.. Even so, Juventus were recently penalised (minus -15 points) and it was easy to see the depressing effect it has had on the team.. Manchester City lost to Tootenham in their most recent match after a very lame offensive performance. They had 64% baöö possession but could only record 0.75 in expected goals. Evan Håland could not create much danger and looked – along with many other City players – very frustrated in the second half. I want to mention though that Tottenham were very good in this game. They took a totally deserved 1-0 win priced around 4.00 to win by the bookies. Indeed, they recorded 1.43 in xG. Aston Villa have significantly improved from early season – even more than the results indicate. They are currently in the 11th place with 28 points but I see them as the ninth-best team in this league. City, on the other hand, have taken 45 points. Neither team have really been lucky - or unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). Aston Villa were not at their best in their most recent game and lost to Leicester 2-4 at home as favorites. However, they did have 63% ball possession and recorded more scoring chances, passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Leicester, a better team than the league table would suggest, did create more in xG though. Villa need to improve defensively from this match to take points in Manchester. Before the Leicester game they won three of the four matches in this league, even Tottenham 2-0 away from home!

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北京时间周一凌晨，英超联赛第23轮，曼城主场迎战阿斯顿维拉。然而，实际上两支球队本赛季在联赛中只打了21场比赛。毫无疑问，曼城显然是更好的球队。然而，对于阿斯顿维拉这样的优秀球队来说，+1.5的障碍通常至少值得一看。周六阿斯顿维拉的赔率下降完全可以理解。最大的，通常是非常聪明的博彩公司，目前为客队提供了2.20左右的赔率，以避免输掉超过一个进球。这显然太多了，因为根据我复杂深入的分析，获胜的几率是53%。不要误解我的意思，瓜迪奥拉的球队仍然是世界上最好的球队之一。在我的实力评分中，他们仍然排在第一位，这反映了两支球队的纯粹水平。然而，他们不再是今年春天捧起这个星球上最好的联赛冠军奖杯的热门球队。在去年8月赛季开始之前，这是我从未想过要在赛季的这个时候写的东西。一切似乎都表明，“公民”将赢得联赛——甚至可能相当容易。挪威明星前锋Erling Håland，本赛季加盟俱乐部，本赛季打进了大量进球。这个令人失望的赛季不应该怪他。不可能指出任何具体的原因，为什么曼城在本赛季的大多数比赛中都与上赛季的水平相差甚远。他们最近的六场比赛中有三场，根据博彩市场的说法，这是明显的热门。即使是南安普顿，一支非常低的球队，也在1月11日的EFL杯中以2-0击败了他们!

我没有其他机会，只能从深入的季前赛分析中大幅降低曼城的实力评级。博彩公司显然也做了同样的事情，但似乎他们还是太尊重曼城了。我的大多数球迷可能都听说过英超联赛所谓的金融规则。这里我就不详细解释这个复杂的问题了。我的粉丝可以在网上搜索更多信息。然而，他们将如何/是否会受到惩罚以及何时受到惩罚仍然完全不清楚。然而，他们将来甚至有可能降级到英冠联赛。瓜迪奥拉过去曾公开表示，如果他发现自己被骗了，他就会离开。我很肯定这个消息至少不会改善球队内部的气氛，但当然这个消息对他们在这里的机会有多大的影响是不可能说的。即便如此，尤文图斯最近还是被罚了(负15分)，很容易看出这对球队的负面影响。曼城在最近的一场比赛中输给了图特纳姆，他们的进攻表现非常糟糕。他们有64%的baöö控球率，但只有0.75的预期进球数。埃文Håland没能制造出太多危险，和其他曼城球员一样，他在下半场表现得很沮丧。我想说的是，热刺在这场比赛中表现得非常好。他们以1-0的比分赢得了这场由博彩公司定价为4.00的比赛。事实上，他们记录的xG为1.43。阿斯顿维拉从赛季初就有了明显的进步——甚至比结果显示的还要多。他们目前以28分排在第11位，但我认为他们是联盟中排名第九的球队。另一方面，曼城已经拿到了45分。两支球队都没有真正幸运-或不幸的期望积分(xPTS)。阿斯顿维拉在最近的一场比赛中并没有发挥出最好的状态，在主场以2-4不敌莱斯特城。然而，他们确实拥有63%的控球率，记录了更多的得分机会、传球、完成传球、进攻和危险进攻。莱斯特城，一支比积分榜上更好的球队，确实创造了更多的xG。维拉需要从这场比赛中提高防守才能在曼彻斯特拿分。在与莱斯特城的比赛之前，他们在联赛的四场比赛中赢了三场，甚至是热刺客场2-0 !