Famalicao vs Gil Vicente

Famalicao and Gil Vicente lock horns in this Liga Portugal round 20 clash at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao in Vila Nova de Famalicao late Sunday evening Beijing time. This level is of good level by European standards but not as competitive as the top-4 leagues. The best teams in this league have done well even in the Champions League in recent years. However, none of the two teams here are among the best teams in Portugal by any standards. Both are, in fact, having a very disappointing season. Indeed, Gil Vicente, in particular, are having a much worse season than probably any football analyst, the betting market or I would have expected - especially in this league.. A team that finished in 5th with 51 points to their account last season – are now in the 15th place in the standings! They played also in the UEFA Conference League earlier this season but were eventually completely crushed by a Dutch team. AZ Almaar who are not in the top-3 in the Netherlands by pure class, but still a strong team though. Gil Vicente lost the matchup 1-6 on aggregate. Even at this point, several months ago, I was thinking that their season will probably be a more difficult one than the 2021-2022 campaign.. Yes, I have lowered their power rating from my in-depth preseason analysis. However, in football money is often made through not reacting too heavily but instead giving a team's pure class enough emphasis!

Gil Vicente have grabbed 19 points so far but in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved 23.35 points. They have netted the ball 19 times so far in Liga Portugal but their number of expected goals is bigger – 22.12. They have conceded 27 goals and the number of expected goals allowed is 25.03. They have significantly improved offensively from early season and have managed to score in their last four games. Against Casa Pia, currently in 5th place with 30 points they even scored three goals on the 22th of January - away from home. They were clear underdogs according to the bookies – priced around 3.40 to win. The match was more balanced than the 1-3 final score would suggest but Gil Vicente did deserve the win after 55% ball possession and recording more shots on goal, total passes, completed passes and attacks. In their most recent match they would have deserved a win at home against Arouca, a strong team currently in the 7th place in the league table.It was however, a 1-1 draw. Gil Vicente had 53% ball possession and also recorded more shots on target, scoring attempts (7-6) total passes, completed passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks. Their level of confidence as well as team spirit – according to my sources – have improved a lot recently. Famalicao are in the 14th place but I have not seen them improving at all lately.. Their level has clearly dropped from last season – more than the bookies seem to realize.. They have taken 21 points so far but their xPTS is just 20.23 and the goal difference is slightly worse than that of the visitors. They did beat BSAD in their most recent match - in Taca de Portugal – 4-1 but the score is misleading as BSAD even had more shots on goal despite Famalicao being very clear favorites in this clash. The ball possession was almost 50-50%. In Liga Portugal they have not impressed me lately and lost to Braga 1-4 away from home on the 5th of this month after a horrible defensive performance. They have not beaten a strong team for a quite long time.. They are only slim favorites here in front of their fans.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周日晚些时候，法马利考和吉尔·维森特在新法马利考市的法马利考市政球场进行了西甲第20轮的比赛。按照欧洲的标准，这个水平是不错的，但不像前四名联赛那么有竞争力。近年来，联赛中最好的球队甚至在欧冠联赛中也表现出色。然而，无论以何种标准衡量，这两支球队都不是葡萄牙最好的球队。事实上，这两支球队都有一个非常令人失望的赛季。事实上，尤其是吉尔·维森特，这个赛季的表现可能比任何足球分析师、博彩市场或我所预期的都要糟糕得多——尤其是在这个联赛中。一支上赛季以51分排名第五的球队，现在在积分榜上排名第15 !他们在本赛季早些时候也参加了欧洲联盟联赛，但最终被一支荷兰队彻底击败。AZ Almaar在荷兰的排名并不靠前，但仍然是一支强大的球队。吉尔·维森特以总比分1-6输掉了比赛。即使在几个月前的这个时候，我还在想他们的赛季可能会比2021-2022赛季更加艰难。是的，我已经从我的季前赛深度分析中降低了他们的实力评级。然而，在足球比赛中，金钱通常是通过不过度反应，而是给予球队足够的重视来赚钱的!

吉尔维森特目前已经拿到了19分，但就预期积分(xPTS)而言，他们应该得到23.35分。到目前为止，他们已经在西甲葡萄牙联赛中破门19次，但他们的预期进球数更高，为22.12球。他们已经丢了27个球，预期失球数是25.03个。从赛季初开始，他们在进攻端有了明显的进步，并在最近四场比赛中取得了进球。对阵目前积30分排名第五的卡萨皮亚，他们甚至在1月22日客场打进3球。根据博彩公司的说法，他们显然是不被看好的一方，获胜的赔率约为3.40美元。这场比赛比最终1-3的比分更加平衡，但吉尔·维森特确实应该获得胜利，他拥有55%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门、总传球、完成传球和进攻。在最近的一场比赛中，他们本应在主场战胜阿鲁卡，这是一支目前排名第七的强队。然而，双方以1-1战平。吉尔·维森特有53%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门，射门次数(7-6)，总传球次数，完成传球，进攻，尤其是危险的进攻。根据我的消息来源，他们的信心水平和团队精神最近有了很大的提高。法马利科排在第14位，但我最近没有看到他们有任何进步。他们的水平明显比上个赛季下降了——比博彩公司似乎意识到的要多。到目前为止，他们已经拿到了21分，但他们的xPTS只有20.23分，净胜球比客队略差。他们在最近的一场比赛中-在葡萄牙塔卡- 4-1击败了BSAD，但比分是误导性的，因为BSAD甚至有更多的射门，尽管法马利科在这场比赛中非常明显是最受欢迎的。控球率几乎是50-50%。在葡萄牙的西甲联赛中，他们最近并没有给我留下深刻的印象，本月5日在主场1-4输给了布拉加，因为他们的防守表现很糟糕。他们已经很长时间没有击败过强队了。在他们的球迷面前，他们只是微弱的热门。