Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid

Celta Vigo host Atletico Madrid for this LaLiga round 21 clash at Estadio de Balaídos in Vigo late Sunday evening Beijing time. A pretty high-quality match is expected here between these two quite good teams in the second-best league in the world - after the English Premier League! The goal expectancy, however, is low. I see the match as even more low-scoring than the betting market does.. based on my sophisticated in-depth the probability of under 2.5 total goals being scored here to be 66%. Furthermore, the draw would certainly not surprise anyone – the probability of this result is 33%. This would be enough for my fans and me to win the 10th bet in a row with the recommended +0.5 goal handicap on the hosts! The biggest, often pretty sharp bookmakers with the largest stake limits see the visitors as solid favorites offering them odds of around 2.20 on them to take all three points. I must strongly disagree! Taking a look at data from the last 10 years LaLiga has one of the biggest home advantages on average of the top-30 leagues on the planet – excluding the matches played without fans due to Covid-19. Yes, Celta Vigo have not been overly concivincing at Estadio de Balaídos this season but would have deserved more points in front of their very enthusiastic and loud fans. Even the fact that Atletico have achieved pretty good results on the road does not fool me.. I want to highlight that they have had some luck on their side in many games away from home. Even so, the visitors do have an edge in all areas of the game. My point is that the difference between the teams is much smaller than the betting market estimates. With the expected lineups I think this match is more or less a 50-50% battle without an actual favorite. This means that we have a 66-67% chance of winning! I would not be at all surprised to see odds on Celta to go down before the kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on the hosts.. I am writing this preview Friday evening Beijing time.

In terms of expected points (xPTS) Celta have been unlucky this season. Indeed, they have 23 points to their account and occupy the 12th place in the standings. Their number of xPTS, however, is 29.01! With the number of points they would be much higher up in the league table and their odds would most probably be much lower here.. In terms of expected goals (xG) they have been only slightly unlucky as they have netted the ball 22 times and their xG is 24.11. However, the number of goals conceded – 32 – is very misleading. Indeed, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is just 33.16! They have clearly improved as a whole from disappointing early season. Especially their defense has significantly improved and has a very good structure and the defenders have made very few silly mistakes starting from the 10th of November 2021. Moreover, they have lost just one of their latest 12 matches during 90 minutes of play! On the 3rd of January they did lose 1-3 after extra time away from home to Espanyol, a mediocre team, in a Copa del Rey after a somewhat balanced battle. Their most recent game was an unusual one by Celta and Liga standards and a whopping seven goals were scored! Celta Vigo managed to take a 4-3 away win in Sevilla over Betis in a match where the hosts were slightly the better team as whole. Both teams. Did, however, have their good moments in this extremely entertaining game and recorded seven shots on goal. Betis, a good team currently in 7th place in the league table, did create more in expected goals 3.21-2.63. I loved the way Celta, clear underdogs, attacked in this clash against a usually very solid Betis defense. However, they would have to, of course, be more solid defensively to beat Atletico here..

Before the Betis game Celta beat Athletic Bilbao at home 1-0 after an impressive defensive performance! Indeed, the strong visitors, currently in 8th place, failed to record any shots on Celta's goal – the hosts' number was three.. Let's not forget that Celta were clear favorites in this clash according to the bookies and Celta were priced around 3.20 to win. Celta created 0.78 in xG – Bilbao's number was just 0.20! Atletico Madrid, the champions from the 2020-2021 season, are in long-term decline and are very often overvalued by the bookmakers. They are currently in 4th place with 35 points - but a stunning 18 points behind Barcelona who currently top the standings! Their number of xPTS is 31.98 and they have a goal difference of 29:17. They have won two of their most recent five LaLiga games but none of these wins have been achieved over a top-8 opponent.. They were disappointing in their most recent game and it was a 1-1 draw against Getafe at home! Getafe even recorded more in xG 1.24-0.96! Overall, Madrid were slightly the better team though but their odds to win – around 1.45 were simply a bad joke based on the actual events on the pitch! Before this they did beat Osasuna away from home 1-0 but the match was overall a balanced one and could have easily gone either way. The hosts had 52% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks (122-84) and dangerous attacks – 59-35. Atletico did, however, record one more shot than Osasuna on goal.

北京时间周日晚，维戈塞尔塔主场迎战马德里竞技队，他们将在维戈的巴拉伊多斯球场迎战这场西甲第 21 轮的交锋。预计这两支非常优秀的球队将在世界第二好的联赛（仅次于英超联赛）之间进行一场高质量的比赛！然而，目标期望值很低。我认为这场比赛比博彩市场的得分更低。根据我的深入研究，这里总进球数低于 2.5 的概率为 66%。此外，平局肯定不会让任何人感到意外——这个结果的概率是 33%。这足以让我的粉丝和我连续第 10 次投注，推荐的东道主 +0.5 进球让分！最大的、通常非常精明的博彩公司拥有最大的赌注限制，将客队视为可靠的热门，为他们提供大约 2.20 的赔率，让他们全取三分。我必须强烈反对！看看过去 10 年的数据 LaLiga 拥有最大的数据之一全球前 30 名联赛的平均主场优势——不包括因 Covid-19 而在没有球迷的情况下进行的比赛。是的，Celta Vigo 本赛季在巴拉多斯球场并没有过分令人信服，但在他们非常热情和喧闹的球迷面前应该得到更多积分。即使马竞在客场取得了不错的成绩这一事实也骗不了我。我想强调的是，他们在很多客场比赛中都有一些运气。即便如此，客队在比赛的各个方面都具有优势。我的观点是，球队之间的差距远小于博彩市场的估计。有了预期的阵容，我认为这场比赛或多或少是一场没有真正热门的 50-50% 的战斗。这意味着我们有 66-67% 的获胜机会！如果看到塞尔塔在开球前下降的赔率，我一点也不会感到惊讶，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在东道主身上。我在北京时间周五晚上写这篇预告。

就预期积分 (xPTS) 而言，塞尔塔本赛季并不走运。事实上，他们有 23 分，在积分榜上排名第 12 位。然而，他们的 xPTS 数量是 29.01！凭借积分数量，他们在联赛积分榜上的排名会高得多，而他们在这里的赔率很可能会低得多。就预期进球数 (xG) 而言，他们只是有点不走运，因为他们进了 22 次球，他们的 xG 是 24.11。然而，失球数——32——非常具有误导性。事实上，他们的预期进球数 (xGA) 仅为 33.16！从令人失望的赛季初期，他们整体上明显有所改善。尤其是他们的防守有了明显的提升，结构非常好，从2021年11月10日开始，后卫们的低级失误已经很少了。而且，他们在最近90分钟的12场比赛中只输了一场！ 1 月 3 日，他们在加时赛后确实输了 1-3经过一场平衡的战斗后，西班牙人队在国王杯中主场作战，这是一支表现平平的球队。他们最近的一场比赛以塞尔塔和西甲的标准来说是一场不寻常的比赛，他们打进了惊人的 7 个进球！维戈塞尔塔在塞维利亚客场以 4-3 战胜贝蒂斯，这场比赛东道主整体上略胜一筹。两队。然而，他们在这场极具娱乐性的比赛中度过了美好的时光，并记录了 7 次射门。贝蒂斯这支目前在联赛积分榜上排名第7的好球队，确实创造了更多的预期进球3.21-2.63。我喜欢塞尔塔，明显的弱者，在这场与通常非常稳固的贝蒂斯防守的冲突中进攻的方式。然而，他们当然必须在防守上更加稳固才能在这里击败马竞。

赛前塞尔塔凭借出色的防守表现在主场1-0击败毕尔巴鄂竞技！事实上，目前排名第 8 的强大客队未能对塞尔塔的球门进行任何射门——东道主的球门数是 3.. 让我们不要忘记根据博彩公司的说法，塞尔塔在这场冲突中显然是夺冠热门，而塞尔塔的赔率约为 3.20。塞尔塔在 xG 中创造了 0.78 - 毕尔巴鄂的数字仅为 0.20！马德里竞技队是 2020-2021 赛季的冠军球队，其股价长期处于下滑状态，并且经常被博彩公司高估。他们目前以 35 分排名第 4 - 但落后目前排名榜首的巴塞罗那 18 分！他们的 xPTS 数是 31.98，净胜球是 29:17。他们在最近的五场西甲比赛中赢了两场，但这些胜利中没有一场是战胜了排名前八的对手。他们在最近的比赛中表现令人失望，主场1-1战平赫塔菲！赫塔菲甚至在xG 1.24-0.96记录更多！总的来说，马德里队虽然略胜一筹，但他们的获胜几率——根据球场上的实际情况，大约 1.45 只是一个糟糕的笑话！在此之前他们确实在客场1-0击败了奥萨苏纳，但比赛总体上是一个平衡的，并且可以很容易地走任何一条路。东道主拥有 52% 的控球率，并记录了更多的进球尝试、总传球次数、传球次数、进攻次数 (122-84) 和危险进攻次数 – 59-35。然而，马竞确实比奥萨苏纳多射门一次。