Leeds vs ManU

Leeds host Manchester United for this English Premier League round 23 clash at Elland Road late Sunday evening Beijing time. However, in reality ManU have played 22 games but Leeds have entered the pitch only 21 times in this league this season. I expect a pretty open and entertaining match between these two teams in the best league on the planet. In my view the goal expectancy here is slightly higher than the betting market estimates. The probability of over 2.5 total goals being scored is 63%. This estimation is mainly based in Leeds' aggressive style of play – especially at Elland Road in front of enthusiastic. This is their "identity" and they cannot really even successfully play in any other way.. Both teams would have deserved more goals in terms of expected goals (xG). Leeds have netted the ball 28 times but their number of xG is 29.45. ManU, on the other hand, have scored 36 goals but their xG is 39.02. Leeds have a somewhat shaky defense though and only one team, Bournemouth, have allowed considerably more goals.. Indeed, the hosts have conceded 36 goals and their defense is often pretty poorly structured. Defenders also regularly make individual mistakes – rather stupid one as well.. Manchester United's defense has not fully convinced me either this season and should improve in this area to keep the top-3 position – not to mention fight for the championship. Even so, the visitors do have a substantial edge in this area of the game! The championship is something some ManU fans have started to dream about lately, after many years of massive disappointments. I trust the visitors' Dutch manager Erik ten Hag a lot, especially in terms of improving his team's defensive structure. He became ManU manager this season and making ManU one of the best teams in Europe takes time.. He has often publicly said that he has a long-term plan and ManU have clearly improved as the season has progressed. The start to the season was abysmal as ManU lost to Brentford 0-4 away from home after an embarrassing performance and were also defeated by Brighton at home. In my view ten Hag is an underrated manager. He is tactically very good and is a great leader as well! He even had the courage to sack C. Ronaldo after the Portuguese striker gave a controversial interview with Peers Morgan before the World Cup. Ronaldo was far from his best level and with the big ego he has was only hindering ManU this season. ManU have been much better without him!

ManU have been in very good form recently losing just one of their latest 16 competitive matches. This loss came on the 22th of January in London. Arsenal beat them 3-2 after a fine match. They did deserve the win after recording 2.76 in xG. However, let's remember that Arsenal have been very strong this season and currently top the standings with a whopping 50 points! ManU, on the other hand, are in 3rd place in the standings and have taken 43 points. Leeds, on the other hand have not won a game in the Premier League since the 5th of November 2021 when they defeated a lowly – and and a very bad team on the road Bournemouth - 4-3 at home. They currently occupy the 16the place in the league table with only 19 points. However, in terms of expected points (xG) they would have deserved a little more. Usually teams with lower number of points than the xPTS are undervalued by the bookies and I do not have simple answer as to why Leeds' odds are too low here.. The betting market giving too much emphasis to the new manager and the most recent games are probably the main reasons though..Leeds are, once again, in a fierce fight against relegation. I have them in the 18th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. Yes, they indeed do have a new manager M. Skubala, but he is an overrated guy in my opinion! He lacks tactical skill needed at this level.. Even so, the new manager will surely offer a moderate boost for Leeds here and I have, of course, taken this into account.. However, according to long-term data the ”new manager boost” is at its biggest in the first game and this is Skubala's second match in charge.

The teams locked horns on Wednesday and it was a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford. However, Leeds were very lucky to grab a point! They fought well but in general there was no clear improvement in their game. ManU had 66% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, total passes, completed passes (495-208), attacks and dangerous attacks – 73-43. They also recorded much more in xG – 2.21- 0.43 to be precise. Before this game Leeds lost to Nottingham 0-1 away from home in a pretty low-level game. ManU on the other hand, beat Crystal Palace 2-1 at home after recording 2.29 in xG – the visitors' number was 1.13.Odds of close to 2.00 on Manu to win are widely available at the time of writing this analysis early Saturday morning Beijing time. We must take advantage of these too high odds and go for the 10th winner in a row! Based on my sophisticated in-depth analysis ManU have a 57% chance to win this clash! Leeds have a very long list of absentees here as Cooper, Dallas, Forshaw, Gray, Rodrigo, Sinisterra and Struijk are all out. Perkins and Roca are questionable. ManU's situation is not ideal either as Casemiro is out due to a previous red card and Eriksen, Martial, McTominay and van de Beek are injured. Anthony's and Wan-Bissaka's situation is unclear at the time of writing this preview. Greenwood is still listed ”inactive”. ManU have a big number of high-class players in the squad so whilst the missings - especially Casemiro and creative Dane, Eriksen - do unarguably hurt them, I believe the visitors will perform well here!

GOOD LUCK!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周日晚些时候，利兹联队将在英格兰超级联赛第23轮主场迎战曼联。然而，事实上马努已经踢了22场比赛，而利兹联本赛季只参加了21场比赛。我希望这两支球队在这个星球上最好的联赛中进行一场非常开放和有趣的比赛。在我看来，这里的目标期望略高于博彩市场的估计。总进球数超过2.5个的概率为63%。这种估计主要是基于利兹联激进的打法——尤其是在埃兰路前面的热情。这是他们的“身份”，他们甚至无法以其他方式成功地玩游戏。就预期进球数(xG)而言，两支球队都应该获得更多的进球。利兹联队已经破门28次，但他们的xG次数是29.45次。另一方面，马努打进了36个进球，但他们的xG是39.02。利兹联的防守有些不稳定，只有伯恩茅斯一支球队失球更多。事实上，东道主已经丢了36个球，他们的防守结构往往相当糟糕。防守队员也经常犯个人错误——相当愚蠢的错误。本赛季曼联的防守也没有完全说服我，应该在这方面有所改善，以保持前三的位置——更不用说争夺冠军了。即便如此，客队在这方面的比赛确实有很大的优势!在经历了多年的巨大失望之后，冠军是一些ManU球迷最近开始梦想的事情。我非常信任客队的荷兰籍主教练埃里克·滕·哈格，尤其是在改善球队防守结构方面。本赛季他成为了ManU的主教练，让ManU成为欧洲最好的球队之一需要时间。他经常公开表示他有一个长期的计划，随着赛季的进展，马努显然有了进步。本赛季的开局非常糟糕，马努在客场0-4输给了布伦特福德，在主场也被布莱顿击败。在我看来，十黑是一个被低估的经理。他的战术很好，也是一个伟大的领袖!在葡萄牙前锋c·罗纳尔多(C. Ronaldo)在世界杯前接受皮尔斯·摩根(Peers Morgan)的一次有争议的采访后，他甚至有勇气解雇了他。c罗的状态还远远没有达到他的最佳水平，他的自负只会阻碍马努本赛季的表现。没有他，马努的表现好多了!

ManU最近状态非常好，在最近的16场比赛中只输了一场。这一损失发生在1月22日的伦敦。经过一场精彩的比赛，阿森纳队以3比2击败了他们。他们在xG中打出了2.76的成绩，这是他们应得的胜利。然而，让我们记住，阿森纳本赛季非常强大，目前以惊人的50分排名榜首!另一方面，ManU在积分榜上排名第三，已经获得了43分。另一方面，利兹联自2021年11月5日在主场4-3击败了一支实力较弱且非常糟糕的球队伯恩茅斯后，就没有在英超联赛中赢过一场比赛。他们目前仅积19分，排在积分榜第16位。然而，就期望分数(xG)而言，他们应该得到更多。通常情况下，得分低于xPTS的球队被博彩公司低估了，对于为什么利兹的赔率太低，我没有一个简单的答案。博彩市场过于强调新教练和最近的比赛可能是主要原因，利兹联再一次陷入了保级的激烈战斗中。在我的实力评分中，他们排在第18位，这反映了两支球队的纯粹水平。是的，他们确实有一个新经理M. Skubala，但在我看来他是一个高估的家伙!他缺乏达到这个级别所需的战术技巧。即便如此，新教练肯定会给利兹联队带来一定的提升，当然，我已经考虑到了这一点。然而，根据长期数据，“新教练的提升”在第一场比赛中是最大的，这是斯库巴拉执教的第二场比赛。

两队在周三交锋，最终在老特拉福德以2-2战平。然而，利兹联非常幸运地拿到了一分!他们打得很好，但总的来说，他们的比赛没有明显的进步。马努拥有66%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球尝试，射门，总传球，完成传球(495-208)，进攻和危险进攻(73-43)。准确地说，他们还记录了更多的xG - 2.21- 0.43。在这场比赛之前，利兹在客场0-1输给了诺丁汉，这是一场相当低级的比赛。另一方面，马努在主场2-1击败水晶宫，他的xG值为2.29，客队的xG值为1.13。在北京时间周六凌晨撰写这篇分析文章时，马努获胜的赔率接近2.00。我们必须利用这些过高的赔率，争取连续第10次获胜!根据我的深入分析，ManU有57%的机会赢得这场比赛!利兹联有一份很长的缺席名单，库珀、达拉斯、福肖、格雷、罗德里戈、辛尼斯特拉和斯特鲁伊克都缺席了。珀金斯和罗卡有问题。马努的情况也不理想，卡塞米罗因为之前的红牌而缺席比赛，埃里克森、马夏尔、麦克托米奈和范德比克也受伤了。安东尼和万-比萨卡的情况在写这篇预告时还不清楚。Greenwood仍被列为“不活跃”。马努的阵容中有很多高水平的球员，所以虽然缺少了卡塞米罗和富有创造力的丹麦人埃里克森，这无疑会对他们造成伤害，但我相信客队会在这里表现得很好!