In my opinion West Ham have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

Both teams without any new absences so their line ups should look exactly the same like in previous round.

West Ham currently have solid streak at home against Chelsea as they didn't lost in 4 of last 5 home matches against them. In previous season West Ham won 3:2 here.

For me is hard to see Chelsea as a fav, they failed to win in 10 of last 12 Premier League matches and scored only 7 goals during that run (scored only once in last 3 matches). Chelsea failed to win in last 6 consecutive Premier League matches on away. Last time they won league match on the road in October.

West Ham finally improved. In last 6 matches in all competitions they recorded only one loss - 0:1 on away against Wolves, but even in that game Hammers looked very solid: expected goals scored for West Ham 1.08, 0.88 for Wolves. In last round they played on away against strong Newcastle and were able to avoid loss. For sure that was big boost of confidence and they wants to go with momentum today. West Ham conceded only 2 goals in last 5 matches in all competitions.

If You look Premier League table, Chelsea is 8 places above West Ham, but really shouldn't be like that. According to the expected goals scored/conceded models West Ham should be higher than Chelsea! West Ham scored 18 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 27.8. Hammers conceded 26 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 23.7. On the other hand Chelsea conceded 21 goals, but they should 27.5. The Blues created chances for 25.5 goals so 2.3 less than West Ham.

On those circumstances I see really good value on home side here.

在我看来，西汉姆联很有机会在今天的比赛中至少拿下一分。 两支球队都没有任何新的缺席，所以他们的阵容看起来应该和上一轮完全一样。

西汉姆联队目前在主场对阵切尔西队的比赛中取得了不错的成绩，因为他们在过去 5 场主场对阵切尔西队的比赛中有 4 场没有输球。上赛季西汉姆在这里3:2取胜。

对我来说，很难将切尔西视为热门，他们在过去 12 场英超联赛中有 10 场未能获胜，并且在那场比赛中只进了 7 个球（在过去的 3 场比赛中只进了一个球）。切尔西近6场英超客场均未尝胜绩。他们上一次在客场赢得联赛冠军是在十月份。

西汉姆终于有所起色。在所有比赛的最后 6 场比赛中，他们只输了一场——客场 0:1 对阵狼队，但即使在那场比赛中，西汉姆队看起来也非常稳定：西汉姆队的预期进球数为 1.08，狼队为 0.88。上轮他们客场对阵实力强劲的纽卡斯尔，避免失利。可以肯定的是，这极大地增强了信心，他们希望今天保持势头。西汉姆近5场各项赛事仅丢2球。

如果你看看英超积分榜，切尔西比西汉姆高出 8 位，但真的不应该那样。根据预期的进球/失球模型，西汉姆应该比切尔西高！西汉姆打进 18 球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该打进 27.8 球。西汉姆丢了 26 个球，但根据预期的失球模型，他们应该丢 23.7 个球。另一方面，切尔西丢了 21 个球，但他们应该是 27.5 个。蓝军创造了 25.5 个进球的机会，比西汉姆少 2.3 个。

在这种情况下，我预测主队不败。