In my opinion Excelsior have really good chances to avoid big loss in today's match up. +1.5 AH looks like safe option to play.

H2H section between both teams looks very interesting because Excelsior won 4 of last 7 matches against Alkmaar in all competitions! For sure they coming here without big fear.

Excelsior today without any new absences so their line up should look exactly the same like in previous round. Excelsior last results looks worse than really should. In last home game they lost 1:4 against Ajax, but that wasn't deserved result at all: expected goals scored for Excelsior 1.34, for Ajax 1.44. In last round they played on away against Waalwijk and recorded draw 0:0. Excelsior have huge advantage in fitness department because they not played any midweek game.

On the other hand Alkmaar played in Cup against Utrecht 3 days ago. They played 120 minutes and lost at home - that wasn't good for their confidence, especially after two consecutive league matches without a win. 9 of 11 players from today's first line up played at least 110 minutes in that game. For sure they are tired.

In addition to that Alkmaar today without key central defenders Dekker & Beukem and key central midfielder De Wit. It's huge blow and should have very bad impact on their performance, especially at the back.

Excelsior should be able to score at least against tired Alkmaar and that should be enough to cover +1.5 HC line.

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在我看来，精锐队在今天的比赛中有很大的机会避免大的损失。+1.5 AH看起来是安全的选择。

两队之间的H2H部分看起来非常有趣，因为Excelsior在所有比赛中赢得了最近7场对阵Alkmaar的4场比赛!可以肯定的是，他们来这里没有太大的恐惧。

精益求精今天没有任何新的缺阵，所以他们的阵容应该和上一轮一模一样。Excelsior最近的结果看起来比实际情况更糟。在上一场主场比赛中，他们1:4输给了阿贾克斯，但这根本不是他们应得的结果:Excelsior的预期进球数为1.34，阿贾克斯的预期进球数为1.44。在上一轮比赛中，他们客场对阵瓦尔维克，并取得0:0的平局。精益求精在体能方面有很大的优势，因为他们没有参加任何周中比赛。

另一方面，阿尔克马尔3天前参加了对阵乌得勒支的杯赛。他们踢了120分钟，在主场输球——这对他们的信心不利，尤其是在连续两场联赛未胜的情况下。今天首发的11名球员中有9人在那场比赛中至少打了110分钟。他们肯定累了。

除此之外，阿尔克马尔今天缺少了关键中卫德克尔和博肯以及关键中场中锋德威特。这是一个巨大的打击，应该会对他们的表现产生非常糟糕的影响，尤其是在后场。

Excelsior应该至少能够在对阵疲惫的Alkmaar时得分，这应该足以覆盖+1.5 HC线。