Paris FC VS Annecy

Paris FC host Annecy in this Coupe de France (French Cup) 1/8-finals clash at Stade Charlety early Thursday morning Beijing time. A pretty balanced match is on the cards here. This competition is not the main priority for either team this season and some squad rotation would not be a surprise. However, as this is also already a final 1/8-final I expect both teams to fight hard as winning the competition is surely very improbable but would not be a ”shock of the century” after all.. The biggest, often usually quite sharp bookmakers with the largest stake limits see Paris FC as clear favorites offering them odds of around 1.90 during the 90 minutes of play. I cannot agree with this! Both teams play in Ligue 2, the second tier, and there is clearly very little between the two teams. In fact, the visitors have done slightly better in Ligue 2 so far! Indeed, they currently occupy the 11th place in the standings with 28 points to their account. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved 31.67 points and would earn more respect on the betting market! They are in 10h place in my power rating which reflects the teams' pure class. I do believe the odds on Annecy to go down before the kickoff though as clever money is expected to pile up on them.. With the home advantage they are surely the favorites but I see Annecy having a 59-60% chance not to lose during the regulation time. I see this match as more-low scoring than the betting market does – neither team has impressed me offensively this season - Annecy scoring a good number of goals in their most recent games does not change this. The probability of under 2.5 total goals being scored is 65% and for the draw my estimation for the draw is 31%.

In their most recent match Annecy faced St. Etienne away from home and lost 2-3 after an open and entertaining battle. They were very clear underdogs in this match according to the bookies – priced around 5.50 to win. Even so, they were, in fact, slightly better overall in this game! They had close to 60% ball possession and recorded many more total passes, completed passes, attacks (120-79) and dangerous attacks – 50-38. The hosts did record more scoring chances (15-11) - both teams created six shots on target. Before this they were excellent at home and beat Caen 2-0 at home as underdogs on the betting market. They, once again, defended in a very structured and mature way allowing Caen just one shot on goal. Let's remember that Caen are a dangerous team, currently in 8th place in the Ligue 2 table. Annecy were promoted from National - third tier - for this season and do not have any real stars in the squad. Even so, they play very well as a team, and I also trust their coach a lot. They have surprised me positively and I have clearly raised their power rating from my in-depth pre-season analysis. Furthermore, according to my sources, Annecy have an awesome team spirit! Annecy have lost just one of their most recent nine games and seem to be very high in confidence at the moment. I do not expect the narrow loss to St. Etienne to affect this.. Before the game against Caen Annecy faced Pau away from home but were not at their best.. They unarguably had some luck on their side and took a point through a 2-2 draw - showing great fighting spirit. Furthermore, before this they defeated ASM Belform away from home in a cup game and defeated Paris FC, 2-0 at home in Ligue 2 after a somewhat balanced clash..

Paris FC, on the other hand, have won just one of their most recent five matches.. The losses, in addition to losing to Annecy, came against mediocre teams. Pau beat them 1-0 Quevilly Rouen 3-1. On the 21th of January they did beat Chamalieres 4-0 away from home in a Coupe de France game though. Let's not forget that the hosts are a very small team and play in Nacional 2, fourth-highest level of French football. Yes, Paris FC deserved the win but the final score is still very misleading as Chamalieres even created more goal attempts – 12-7 to be precise. Paris FC seem to be low in confidence at the moment and their defense has recently been more leaky than early season, despite taking a 0-0 draw in their most recent match against a very strong team Le Havre away from home. They had some luck in this game but arguably played better than for a long time.. However, I want to highlight that Le Havre were far from their best in this clash. Paris FC currently occupy the 12th place with 28 points and a pretty weak goal difference of 18:23. Their xPTS is 26.67. They do have potential to improve but I believe this will take time.. Their offense has been so lame recently that I do not expect to have a good chance of scoring more than once here..

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周四凌晨，法国杯1/8决赛在夏尔蒂球场举行，巴黎足球俱乐部主场迎战安内西。这是一场势均力敌的比赛。这场比赛并不是这两支球队本赛季的首要任务，一些阵容轮换也就不足为奇了。然而，由于这已经是最后的1/8决赛，我希望两支队伍都能努力争取，因为赢得比赛肯定是非常不可能的，但毕竟不会是“世纪之惊”。最大的、通常相当精明的博彩公司拥有最大的赌注限制，他们认为巴黎足球俱乐部是最受欢迎的，在90分钟的比赛中提供约1.90的赔率。我不同意!两支球队都是法甲联赛的第二梯队，两支球队之间的差距显然很小。事实上，到目前为止，客队在法甲的表现略好!事实上，他们目前以28分的成绩排在第11位。然而，就预期积分(xPTS)而言，他们应该得到31.67分，并在博彩市场上赢得更多的尊重!他们在我的力量评级中处于10小时的位置，这反映了球队的纯粹等级。我相信安纳西的赔率会在开球前下降，尽管聪明的钱会堆积在他们身上。凭借主场优势，他们无疑是最受欢迎的球队，但我认为安纳西在常规时间内有59-60%的机会不输。我认为这场比赛的得分比博彩市场所认为的要低——本赛季两支球队的进攻都没有给我留下深刻的印象——安纳西在最近几场比赛中打进了很多球，这并不能改变这一点。总进球数在2.5球以下的概率是65%，至于抽签，我估计是31%。

在他们最近的一场比赛中，安纳西在客场面对圣艾蒂安，在一场公开而有趣的战斗后，以2-3的比分输掉了比赛。根据博彩公司的说法，他们在这场比赛中明显处于下风，获胜的赔率约为5.50英镑。即便如此，他们在这款游戏中的整体表现还是略胜一筹!他们的控球率接近60%，并且记录了更多的总传球、完成传球、进攻(120-79)和危险进攻(50-38)。东道主确实创造了更多的得分机会(15-11)——两支球队都有6次射正。在此之前，他们在主场表现出色，并在博彩市场上以2-0击败了卡昂。他们再一次以非常有条理和成熟的方式防守，只让卡昂打了一球。让我们记住卡昂是一支危险的球队，目前在法甲排名第8位。安纳西本赛季从国家三级联赛升级，在球队中没有任何真正的球星。尽管如此，他们作为一个团队表现得非常好，我也非常信任他们的教练。他们给我带来了积极的惊喜，在我的季前赛深度分析中，我明显提高了他们的实力评级。此外，根据我的消息来源，Annecy有一种令人敬畏的团队精神!安纳西在最近的九场比赛中只输了一场，目前他们的信心似乎非常高。我不认为输给圣艾蒂安会影响这一点。在与卡昂安纳西的比赛之前，他们在客场面对保罗，但并不是他们的最佳状态。毫无疑问，他们运气不错，在2-2的平局中拿到了一分，显示出了强大的战斗精神。此外，在此之前，他们在一场杯赛中在客场击败了ASM Belform，并在法甲主场2-0击败了巴黎FC。

另一方面，巴黎FC在最近的五场比赛中只赢了一场。输球，除了输给安纳西之外，对手都是平庸的球队。保罗1-0击败他们，奎维尔-鲁昂3-1。在1月21日的法国杯比赛中，他们在客场4-0击败了Chamalieres。我们不要忘记东道主是一支非常小的球队，他们参加的是法国足球第四高水平的国家二级联赛。是的，巴黎理应获得胜利，但最终的比分仍然非常误导人，因为Chamalieres甚至创造了更多的进球机会——准确地说是12-7。巴黎足球俱乐部目前似乎信心不足，他们的防守比赛季初更有漏洞，尽管他们最近在客场0-0战平了强队勒阿弗尔。他们在这场比赛中有一些运气，但可以说他们比很久以前打得更好。然而，我想强调的是，勒阿弗尔在这场比赛中远远没有达到最佳状态。巴黎目前以28分排在第12位，净胜球仅为18:23。他们的xPTS是26.67。他们确实有潜力改进，但我相信这需要时间。他们的进攻最近太差劲了，我不指望在这里有更多得分的机会。