There have already been several cases in the CL where the first leg does not necessarily give any clue of what happens in the second leg. Both Sevilla and Barcelona were completely different teams in the 2nd leg when behind, and should had deserved something.

Here Atalanta do not even need to change completely from the first leg. They lost mostly and only because of the early and very harsh red card for Freuler, yet for big parts of the match no one would had noticed that they were 10 v 11 and Madrid needed the most unlikely goal scorer Mendy to win this 0-1.

In La Liga Real have been suffering badly from the injuries, and that situation has improved strongly. Sergio Ramos has returned, but Hazard, Mariano and Carjaval are out, as well as suspended midfielder Casemiro who has been the most important Real player this season, he just happens to be in the shadow of Benzema who scores the goals.

在欧冠中，已经有好几种情况，第一回合的结果不一定提供第二回合提供任何线索。塞维利亚和巴塞罗那在首回合落后，第二回合是完全不同的球队，应该配得上有更好的表现。

本场比赛亚特兰大甚至不需要改变第一回合的状态。他们输球的最大原因是因为弗罗伊勒的红牌，非常苛刻，但是在比赛的大部分时间里没人会注意到他们是10打11，而皇马凭借最不可能进球的门迪的进球1-0赢得比赛 。

在西甲，皇马遭受了伤病，这种状况已得到明显改善。塞尔吉奥·拉莫斯（Sergio Ramos）回来了，但是阿扎尔（Hazard），马里亚诺（Mariano）和卡尔哈瓦（Carjaval）缺阵，而本赛季最重要的皇家中场球员卡塞米罗（Casemiro）被禁赛，他恰好在本泽马（Benzema）的进球阴影下。

The results in Le Liga are decent recently, they have 5 wins and two draws from latest 7 games. However all wins are rather narrow and vs relegation favourites, and in both of those draws which were vs better clubs Real needed a late goal to earn an equalizer, and especially v Atletico they definitely did not deserve it as they were badly outplayed!

Atalanta - as you may remember - has been a top Italian club for some years now, but they are still undermined in the eyes of the public and media. True, they are a new name and money-wise they are in a different category, but their performances compare with anyone both home and away.

皇马在西甲联赛的成绩最近不错，他们在最近的7场比赛中取得5场胜利和2场平局。然而，所有的胜利都很有限，而且对降级的球队也是如此，而且平​​局都是对阵实力较强的球队，皇马凭借着较晚的进球才扳平比分，尤其是对阵马竞，他们表现不佳完全配不上赢球！

亚特兰大（Atalanta）近年来一直是意大利顶级俱乐部，但在公众和媒体眼中，他们仍然受到损害。没错，他们是一个陌生的球队，从财力上来说，它们属于不同的类别，但是它们的表现可以与国外的任何球队相比。

Atalanta have almost identical results in Serie A compared to Real's run. However the big difference is the amount of goal expectation they can create, and also the fact they can keep top clubs far away from their goal when needed. They lost to Inter away, but the goal was a low xG shot by Skriniar, and that was pretty much Inter got in the whole 90 minutes. The loss also widened the gap to Inter to 13 points, but in the underlying xG data Atalanta, Inter and Juventus are practically equal.

Atalanta have no big injury worries as they are used to rotate a lot and only Hateboer and Sutalo are confirmed to be out. Freuler is suspended, but personally I like that there is De Roon and Pessina instead. Zapata was rested last round, and Muriel is the best substitution player in the world currently!

Real did try to rest Kroos and Modric last time vs weak Elche side, but needed to sub them in, and all in all it was another mediocre performance from Real Madrid.

Real have stepped up in these big games this season several times and they can never been written off, but I see Atalanta controlling this game, and as also a draw is enough to win this handicap I am happy to take it.

X2

与皇马相比，亚特兰大队在意甲联赛中的表现几乎相同。但是，最大的不同是他们可以赢得预期进球，他们在需要时可以使顶级俱乐部远离他们的球门。他们输给了国际米兰，但进球的Skrinia，而整个90分钟内国际米兰的预期进球都很低。失利也将国际米兰的差距拉大到13分，但在预期进球数据中，亚特兰大，国际米兰和尤文图斯实际上是相等的。

亚特兰大并没有太大的伤病困扰，因为它们习惯于轮换，只有Hateboer和Sutalo无法出战。Freuler被停赛了，但我个人更喜欢De Roon和Pessina。Zapata上轮联赛轮休，Muriel是目前世界上最好的替补球员！

皇马上一轮让克罗斯和莫德里奇对阵埃尔切的比赛中轮换，但他们还是替补出战，总而言之，这是皇马的又一次平庸的表现。

我预测亚特兰大可以在这场比赛中占据主动，平局也足以赢得这个让分的机会，我很乐意接受。预测亚特兰大不败